McClellan Re-evaluating George McClellan

[NedBaldwin]

So you agree that his observation of 72,000 Confederates (excluding Walker and Stuart) from Sept. 10-11 is reasonable?

I have no reason to doubt what he wrote which is " The most liberal calculations could not give them more than 64,000 men" and that Hill's division numbered "about 8,000". He did not say simply "64000" but rather qualified it as "The most liberal calculations could not give them more" which means he considers that to be the upper possible limit on what he saw that day. He also stated that the 64000 included "over 3,000 negroes". His full description shows that his count was as broad as possible -- it includes not just an official aggregate present but persons accompanying the army who are not on the official roster and thus not part of a PFD or Aggregate report.

 

[NedBaldwin]

Who ever denied there was straggling in Lee's army, anyone?

You have stated that after moving from Centerville to Frederick, Lee's army got larger.

 

[NedBaldwin]

Again, specifically what do you mean by large? 500 or 35,000+? Like you did with Lee's letter to Davis, please give me specifics, especially primary information. I am fully aware of the reconnaissances in northern Virginia, and with the works of Carmen, Harsh and Hartwig,

If you are fully aware of the sources, why do I need to give you specifics? The sources you claim to be familiar with all point to a large quantity of stragglers before crossing the river. How many is large is the quandary.

I do not recall reading anything in those accounts that would contradict Steiner's numbers,

I have not said anything about contradicting Steiner.

 

[Gene Thorp]

I know there was a pause at Frederick, but did he really pause at Leesburg?

Hmmm, that's my recollection. Let me look into the specifics.

 

[67th Tigers]

I know there was a pause at Frederick, but did he really pause at Leesburg?

Hmmm, that's my recollection. Let me look into the specifics.

Lee marched to Leesburg on the 3rd September, and was at Leesburg 4th-7th whilst his army crossed. Walker recrossed at Point of Rocks late on the 10th and spend the 11th encamped a few miles from Leesburg. There was a short pause, although usually part of the army was in motion at any one time, so it was a sort of rolling pause.

 

[Gene Thorp]

You have stated that after moving from Centerville to Frederick, Lee's army got larger.

First, you changed my words to an absolute statement, which is inaccurate. I said, "From Sept. 2 to Sept. 10, Lee's numbers likely grew as he paused both at Leesburg and Frederick to regroup, resupply, recruit, and rest. Isn't it pretty well excepted that Lee gained 900 Maryland recruits during that time?"
That said, how do you interpret that as me saying there was no straggling? McClellan's army got larger throughout the campaign too, and yet there was straggling there as well. I already stated earlier, "I have never argued that Lee's army did not have significant straggling." What is important is when, where and how many.

Again, it would be very helpful to know how many Confederates you think stayed behind south of the Potomac, and what you base your hypothesis on?

 

[NedBaldwin]

That said, how do you interpret that as me saying there was no straggling?

I think your reaction to Elennsar and you assertion that Lee's army was likely getting larger and not smaller speak for itself.

McClellan's army got larger throughout the campaign too, and yet there was straggling there as well.

Becuase of specific reinforcements. There is also evidence that McClellan's army was more reduced by straggling than is commonly assumed. See what 67th Tigers posted above:

That is exactly the conclusion Daniel Vermilya reaches in his forthcoming paper: http://southfromthenorthwoods.blogspot.be/2012/09/perceptions-not-realities.html

For the third time, what are your numbers (hypothesized) for those straggling Confederates south of the Potomac, and what are your sources?

For the third time, I dont have numbers -- that is what I am trying to figure out.
I already referred to my sources.

 

[NedBaldwin]

Regarding Steiner's count, he puts DH Hill at about 8,000 but Hill's reported present for duty on the 1st was 9,794.
So you tell me, was Steiner's count way off, or had Hill's division already dropped significantly?


EDIT: Your Washington Post article puts DH Hill at 10,624 present for duty at start of campaign. So whats your explanation for the variance from Steiner's count?

 

[67th Tigers]

Regarding Steiner's count, he puts DH Hill at about 8,000 but Hill's reported present for duty on the 1st was 9,794.
So you tell me, was Steiner's count way off, or had Hill's division already dropped significantly?

Geroge B Anderson's brigade didn't pass through Frederick, it was detached at Point of Rocks on the road to Burkittsville and Middletown.

 

[NedBaldwin]

Geroge B Anderson's brigade didn't pass through Frederick, it was detached at Point of Rocks on the road to Burkittsville and Middletown.

He had been detached there earlier but rejoined Hill at Frederick before the day that Steiner made his count..

 

[Gene Thorp]

If you are fully aware of the sources, why do I need to give you specifics? The sources you claim to be familiar with all point to a large quantity of stragglers before crossing the river. How many is large is the quandary

Are you not trying to back up your argument with names like Carman, Hartwig and Harsh, that a large number of Confederates remained south of the Potomac as stragglers at the beginning of the Antietam Campaign? I am saying that I do not recall them supporting that notion, and thus, I am asking you to point me to text that they wrote which supports your apparent point of view.

As for the Union reconnaissance, I have listed below what I have on hand with source information.

All from the Official Records...

9/7 Bayard's ordered to scout to Dranesville if there is not too much risk in doing it (v107p798)

9/8 Bayard's cavalry to connect with Sigel's cavalry on the right and picket from Lewinsville to the dirt road to Fairfax Court-House and connect with Buford's cavalry on the left. He is to report any approach of enemy to the commander at Upton's Hill (v107p799)

9/8 1:05pm Bayard's cavalry scouted to Dranesville (v28p210)

9/10 10:30am A scouting party passed through Fairfax C.H., Vienna, Freedom Hill, and Union Church and found no enemy. They were going to Hunter's Mills and Dranesville to find out about a picket near there (v107p805)

9/11 12:45am Heintelman urged to use the brigades of Bayard and Buford to send patrols all over the country towards Vienna and Fairfax C.H. (v107p813-814)

9/11 Kilpatrick's scouts just returned from Broad Run and Goose Creek. Reported 2 CS brigades were at Leesburg 9/10. One left for Winchester, other was still at Leesburg (v28p257) [NOTE: This coincides with Walker's two divisions recrossing the Potomac into Loudoun County Virginia and moving on to Harpers Ferry.]

9/12 4:00pm Heintzelman sent out cavalry patrols and could find no enemy east of Dranesville (v28p274)

9/15 12:25 Davies proposes to send in afternoon ten co. of cavalry and section of artillery to Aldie Gap and four companies to Snicker's and Ashby's Gaps to intercept the enemy's supply train for Winchester (v28p298)

9/16 2pm Ten companies (6–2NY, 2–9PA, 2–1NJ and a section of Buells artillery) under the command of Lt. Col. Kilpatrick left Upton's Hill arriving at Dranesville that night. (v27p1091)

9/16 10pm Lt. Col. Kilpatrick captured 2 men at Drainsville. States he will not go far to the left of Leesburg because he can better observe rebel forces on the pike leading to Leesburg. (v28p319)

9/17 Kilpatrick Advanced to Leesburg with caution. Intelligence was recieved that there may be a considerable force at Leesburg. Found bridge away at Goose Cr. and enemy pickets. Advanced on Leesburg and drove 200 cavalry into town [White's C.S. cavalry] where there were 500 infantry including convalescents and armed citizens. They withdrew to a wooded hill beyond town. Paroled many prisoners and brought off 1 artillery piece and destroyed several hundred muskets and rifles. US loss 2k, 12w. 10NY charged twice through the town. (v27p1091)

You wrote "But the evidence I see supports the idea that the number who fell out before the crossing was large," afterwards sourcing, "US reconnainsance in northern virginia during September." So what from the reconnaissance accounts above supports your notion that there were large numbers of Confederates roaming Northern Virginia while Lee was in Maryland? What did I miss?

 

[Gene Thorp]

There is also evidence that McClellan's army was more reduced by straggling than is commonly assumed.

I agree.

 

[Elennsar]

First, my apologies for not responding to each quote separately. I am a little strapped for time today, but I wanted to send this off while it is still fresh in my mind.

Not a problem.

THORP:
Why do you think double counting occurred here? Didn't all of Lee's troops march through town just once on their way west when Steiner was counting them? Please give me some details as to how it is possible to double count troops that go by once? Wouldn't Steiner be just as likely to undercount in this circumstance?

http://civilwartalk.com/threads/civ...er-than-previously-thought.92903/#post-767719

Icarus talking about headcounting, and that with some of the subjects being still and dead.

Sure, it's possible that he underestimated, but given that he's attempting to get everyone in his count, and his count we're quoting is specifically the highest estimate he'd give, I think he would be consciously erring on the high end.

THORP:
So basically, you are saying the that the Present for Duty to Aggregate Present ratio is 87.7% for Sept. 22, right?

I think so, from the units we have reports for, yes. I've made mistakes with my math before, but that's my stab at it.

THORP:
How do you arrive at the conclusion that the five brigades of Stuart's cavalry and Walker's brigade do not come "anywhere near twelve thousand men present for duty?" What are your sources to make such a statement?

Using John Allen's Sept. 22 Present for Duty numbers from Harsh's Sounding the Shadows:
5,159 (Walker) + 5,761 (Stuart) = 10,920. That is almost 11,000 present for duty.

The following is taken from here: http://www.brettschulte.net/CWBlog/...l-level-orders-of-battle-second-bull-run-oob/

September 2: Walker has 5,149 men. Stuart has 5,664 in three brigades (12 regiments, one battalion, two legions, and White's unit) plus the horse artillery (three batteries)

5,149+5,664 = 10,813. Before anything that would see the men present for duty on September 2 fail to be part of this count eight or nine days later (for example, Antietam on the Web reports Company H of the 4th Virginia Cavalry detached as headquarters escort, but it's not listed separately from the rest of the regiment in the above).

One could make an argument that "nearly eleven thousand" is close to 12,000, but how much has that "nearly eleven thousand" shrunk? I'm not sure the answer isn't "enough to notice".

And while I'm going over this, I'm going to quote that Lee's September 2nd strength per that minus Walker and Stuart would give 64,874 present for duty on September 2nd.

THORP:
Yes, all over the place, but the majority of which are higher. I have taken the time to source these eye witness reports. If you are going to dismiss them as "rather secondhand" then I would appreciate you specifically citing which accounts don't meet your muster and why.

The problematic ones:
Miles, who refers to "the report here" being 40-60,000 with Lee and Jackson.
"a rebel captain told a relative . . . that the rebel force was 84,000"
The reference to "Northern correspondents" giving 60,000-100,000, and it being easy for citizens to give "50,000 to 75,000".

One could be picky about Webster's 75,000 and the unnamed civilian saying they had a strong force of 70,000 - but those are the ones that strike me as secondhand enough to not use in comparison to whatever we think starting strength was.

Those are the ones related to the army's overall strength, the ones related to Harper's Ferry specifically have other issues (like assuming the regiments in any part of the Harper's Ferry attack would average around 800 men).

If you're just presenting "what people thought at the time", you did a wonderful job showing sources from all over (in a good way), however. We have a pretty good sense of what Lee's numbers were thought to be from that map, and it's probably safe to say "between 60,000 and 80,000" with various levels of wild *** guessing (Steiner may or may not have overcounted, but he's at least observing - presumably - the whole march, the Baltimore Sun may or may not have been as observant).

THORP:
Why not? What numbers and primary sources do you propose we use? What proof do you have that men fell out instead of catching up? The 2nd Manassas Campaign had disorganized Lee's army somewhat—like any campaign does—and Allen's numbers are taken from the end of it. From Sept. 2 to Sept. 10, Lee's numbers likely grew as he paused both at Leesburg and Frederick to regroup, resupply, recruit, and rest. Isn't it pretty well excepted that Lee gained 900 Maryland recruits during that time?

And it's also pretty well accepted that Lee's army bled stragglers heavily in this period. Especially given repeated reports - including at the time, aka before anyone has any need to cover their butt - saying so.

Quite honestly I would be hard pressed to name a single source I'd say is definitively reliable here - and I think from the standpoint of historical research, "we have no good information, possibilities range from (low end) to (high end)" is the most honest and accurate statement we can make with the data I am aware of.

So to get a fair and conservative estimate of the Artillery Reserve and Cavalry on Sept. 22, we take 63.2% of 6,673 (Artillery Reserve and Cavalry), which is 4,219, and add that back into 36,418 (Lee's army exclusive of Artillery Reserve and Cavalry) and we get a total Present for Duty on Sept. 22 of 40,637 Present for duty, or rounded up to the nearest thousandth, about 41,000 men. Does that satisfy your concern with how much I pay attention to the returns?

Yes. I was considerably less confident when I read your article, but I appreciate you showing that was more in the range of a typographical than a research error by your response.

THORP:
I am not following how you arrived at your conclusion that McClellan did not have to deal with 70,000+ Confederates in Maryland. Did you not just write above that, "we'd have around 63,090 men present for duty out of those marching by, plus the troops not counted by Steiner." By your own calculations, after adding in Walker and Stuart, doesn't your number come to over 70.000? It would appear that you agreeing with my numbers then, right?

No. I'm using that as a high end count - and counting the blacks Steiner mentions, to boot - based on his own statement of "by the most liberal estimate" that being the case.

If you want my own analysis, it would be "do we have anything recorded except guesses?" first and foremost.

I don't understand your last sentance. Who should be referencing Harsh?

My bad. I was surprised and not in a good way that you hadn't done so, especially as Sears isn't the most recent work on the subject, but it seems my attempt to say so was just confusing.

Where are the numbers you use above from?

They should be :

10,920 (Walker and Stuart) + 8,000 (D.H. Hill) + 64,000 (Rest of Lee's army) = 82,920 on Sept. 10, right?

69,000 is Steiner's count minus the blacks, to be set next to "Lee's army minus Walker and Stuart per Thorp for campaign start" for comparison.

We can't compare Steiner's count of Walker and Stuart to yours or anyone else's, but we can compare the rest.

 

[Elennsar]

As for the Union reconnaissance, I have listed below what I have on hand with source information. Pay attention Elennsar since you want me to "go over every detail with a fine tooth comb" and claim that relying on me "for a fair account of Lee's forces in the Campaign is ill advised at best."

Your campaign start figure errs on the high end and then stays on the high end - offering a host of civilian guesses but no Confederate records - afterwards. It's a great explanation of how McClellan could take the figures he thought were the case seriously, but saying we should rely on these accounts more than the lowball numbers is presented as if those quoted would know more about the strength of the units in question than those making reports (on the annoyingly rare occasion anyone did give numbers for the period between the 2nd and 22nd).

 

[Gene Thorp]

Let me add these accounts too from Harper's Ferry (8th New York Cavalry) regarding Confederates in Northern Virginia :

9/8 Made reconnaissance to Bunker Hill, Smithfield and Sumit Point capturing a few pickets (v27p535),

9/10 Made reconnaissance toward Winchester but saw no enemy (v27p535),

9/12 Made reconnoissance to Halltown and discovered enemy in woods of Loudoun Heights. Thought they were U.S. troops. (Bell p.10), [NOTE: This apparently was the vanguard of Walker's Division.]

 

[NedBaldwin]

Are you not trying to back up your argument with names like Carman, Hartwig and Harsh, that a large number of Confederates remained south of the Potomac as stragglers at the beginning of the Antietam Campaign? I am saying that I do not recall them supporting that notion, and thus, I am asking you to point me to text that they wrote which supports your apparent point of view.

As for the Union reconnaissance, I have listed below what I have on hand with source information. Pay attention Elennsar since you want me to "go over every detail with a fine tooth comb" and claim that relying on me "for a fair account of Lee's forces in the Campaign is ill advised at best."

All from the Official Records...

9/7 Bayard's ordered to scout to Dranesville if there is not too much risk in doing it (v107p798)

9/8 Bayard's cavalry to connect with Sigel's cavalry on the right and picket from Lewinsville to the dirt road to Fairfax Court-House and connect with Buford's cavalry on the left. He is to report any approach of enemy to the commander at Upton's Hill (v107p799)

9/8 1:05pm Bayard's cavalry scouted to Dranesville (v28p210)

9/10 10:30am A scouting party passed through Fairfax C.H., Vienna, Freedom Hill, and Union Church and found no enemy. They were going to Hunter's Mills and Dranesville to find out about a picket near there (v107p805)

9/11 12:45am Heintelman urged to use the brigades of Bayard and Buford to send patrols all over the country towards Vienna and Fairfax C.H. (v107p813-814)

9/11 Kilpatrick's scouts just returned from Broad Run and Goose Creek. Reported 2 CS brigades were at Leesburg 9/10. One left for Winchester, other was still at Leesburg (v28p257) [NOTE: This coincides with Walker's two divisions recrossing the Potomac into Loudoun County Virginia and moving on to Harpers Ferry.]

9/12 4:00pm Heintzelman sent out cavalry patrols and could find no enemy east of Dranesville (v28p274)

9/15 12:25 Davies proposes to send in afternoon ten co. of cavalry and section of artillery to Aldie Gap and four companies to Snicker's and Ashby's Gaps to intercept the enemy's supply train for Winchester (v28p298)

9/16 2pm Ten companies (6–2NY, 2–9PA, 2–1NJ and a section of Buells artillery) under the command of Lt. Col. Kilpatrick left Upton's Hill arriving at Dranesville that night. (v27p1091)

9/16 10pm Lt. Col. Kilpatrick captured 2 men at Drainsville. States he will not go far to the left of Leesburg because he can better observe rebel forces on the pike leading to Leesburg. (v28p319)

9/17 Kilpatrick Advanced to Leesburg with caution. Intelligence was recieved that there may be a considerable force at Leesburg. Found bridge away at Goose Cr. and enemy pickets. Advanced on Leesburg and drove 200 cavalry into town [White's C.S. cavalry] where there were 500 infantry including convalescents and armed citizens. They withdrew to a wooded hill beyond town. Paroled many prisoners and brought off 1 artillery piece and destroyed several hundred muskets and rifles. US loss 2k, 12w. 10NY charged twice through the town. (v27p1091)

You wrote "But the evidence I see supports the idea that the number who fell out before the crossing was large," afterwards sourcing, "US reconnainsance in northern virginia during September." So what from the reconnaissance accounts above supports your notion that there were large numbers of Confederates roaming Northern Virginia while Lee was in Maryland? What did I miss?

First one that comes to mind is "The man from Leesburg states that the rebel soldiers are running over the country, hunting something to eat, and are a hard-looking set, with a large number of stragglers" (v19-2 p195)
However this is not technically recon, rather Pleasonton reporting on intel.

Hartiwg discusses it one pages 93 and 97 of To Antietam Creek
I will get you Carman and Harsh cites later.

 

[ole]

Well, we are at least getting spirited, reciprocal discussion of details I've not heard before.

 

[Elennsar]

Spirited is good. I appreciate Thorp being willing to engage instead of just taking offense to me feeling critical.

 

[NedBaldwin]

In Taken at the Flood, page 468, Harsh writes "It is certainly true that many of his [Lee] soldiers did not cross the Potomac. But, the explanation for thousands [my emphasis] of these men was Lee's own orders that those trying to catch up with the army be diverted to the stragglers camp in Winchester." Harsh also has some discussion of this in Part 5L of Sounding the Shallows in which he quotes from a Chaplain's diary from before entering Maryland referring to "nothing but stragglers was to be seen in every direction".

Carman basically quotes Lee's correspondence and G.F.R. Henderson's book though he also points out that "while a host of Lee's stragglers were wandering around in Virginia, a larger number of McClellan's were wandering over Maryland."

Henderson had written "Many a stout soldier, who had hobbled along on his bare feet until Pope was encountered and defeated, found himself utterly incapable of marching into Maryland. In rear of the army the roads were covered with stragglers."

I also mentioned Henry Alexander White who wrote Robert E. Lee and the Southern Confederacy in which he wrote that "Winchester he had designated as a depot for Confederate supplies and as a rendezvous for the great army of stragglers yet south of the Potomac" and when mentioning the return of stragglers to the army he wrote "The stragglers began to flock to their old regiments. From Leesburg alone came ten thousand barefooted veterans."

 

[NedBaldwin]

9/15 12:25 Davies proposes to send in afternoon ten co. of cavalry and section of artillery to Aldie Gap and four companies to Snicker's and Ashby's Gaps to intercept the enemy's supply train for Winchester (v28p298)

In this same letter it says that Davies thinks "many stragglers can taken" in doing this.

9/17 Kilpatrick Advanced to Leesburg with caution. Intelligence was recieved that there may be a considerable force at Leesburg. Found bridge away at Goose Cr. and enemy pickets. Advanced on Leesburg and drove 200 cavalry into town [White's C.S. cavalry] where there were 500 infantry including convalescents and armed citizens. They withdrew to a wooded hill beyond town. Paroled many prisoners and brought off 1 artillery piece and destroyed several hundred muskets and rifles. US loss 2k, 12w. 10NY charged twice through the town. (v27p1091)

A follow up report from Davies of this move to Leesburg stated that the enemy found there included "recovered sick and stragglers ... intending to go to Harpers Ferry" [19-2 p324]

Also on the 17th, a party sent to the Bull Run battlefield reported that "battle-field and vicinity had many stragglers upon it ... The stragglers, sick, wounded, were all going to Winchester, Va." [19-2 p317]

On September 29, US cavalry went out to Warrenton. Found "Every house in town I found filled with wounded and sick, the streets were crowded with convalescents, and, apparently, stragglers" [v19-2 p8]


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In his history of the war, the Comte de Paris wrote of the Arny of Northenr Virginia that "The main body of the army had marched forward; but like those comets which, we are told, leave a portion of their substance in the region of space, it had left a swarm of stragglers behind which had increased at every stage. These were the sick, men utterly broken down, lame, or exhausted for want of food, but still animated by the desire and sustained by the hope of joining their more able-bodied comrades, in order to participate in their glorious labors. ... They could not follow them thither, for the [Potomac] river was to them an insurmountable obstacle; the Confederate army had disappeared on the other side, and the Federal pickets had again taken possession of the opposite bank which they guarded with care. But Lee had left written directions in all the habitations adjoining the place through which he passed, directing them to rally at Winchester, which he intended to make his base of operations. For a few days the passes of the Blue Ridge were thronged with these men, numbering, it is said, from twenty to thirty thousand, who were struggling with great difficulty to reach the rendezvous which had been indicated to them." And after the battle when the Confederate Army returned to Virginia "It was able, above all, to rally that second army of which we have heretofore spoken—that army of stragglers, sick and lame, which amounted to more than thirty thousand men when Lee had crossed the Potomac three weeks before, and which, being stopped by the river, had proceeded gloomily in long columns in the direction of the passes of the Blue Ridge."