Saphroneth
Colonel
- Joined
- Feb 18, 2017
75,000 campaign strength PFD, then casualties after South Mountain, and multiply by about 2/3, and you get about 47,000 effectives (which is the number I was using by adding up individual brigades.).Wouldn't that mean if we take your number of 75,000 that their would have been around a 45% straggling rate , would this not mean that Confederate losses would have been much higher than stated.
The more normal conversion from PFD to Effectives is 80% of PFD becomes effectives, but at Antietam the straggling for both sides is particularly bad.
AP Hill is the only formation that really arrives on the battlefield "late", and his division was about 1/8 of Lee's total strength (so on the order of 5,000-6,000 counting all five brigades - Carman only counts the three engaged ones for example).Most historians agree that Lee started the 17th with around 30,000 effectives as units arrived on the battlefield his overhaul strength for the day not counting losses was around 42,000 effectives.
I think Lee's reported casualties are low, certainly - the army was badly disrupted. The number I tend towards is about 17,000 casualties in the whole campaign.55,000 effectives is the common figure given that crossed into Maryland , Given the losses a BoSM and a straggling number much more reasonable of around 5,000 - 8,000 this would mean Lee had on hand around 43,000 to 45,000 overall which is interesting because McClellan claimed to have inflicted over double the enemy dead from 1500 to nearly 4000 and I have seen sources that indicate he was right and that Lee covered up his own losses could their be some truth in this?.
The 55,000 number is a little lower than my own personal estimate, and I'd say about 60,000 (using the normal conversion - 75,000 PFD becomes 60,000 effectives). By the same calculation though McClellan's force marching out of Washington is a bit more than 65,000 effectives at that point, and both forces then shrink as the forced marching of the Maryland Campaign reduces the fraction of their PFD they can convert into effectives.