I think this is a very good analyses, Tony. I will just make a few comments and observations.
I think this is correct, but I suspect that Pemberton was going to be very cautious executing it—which shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Honestly, I think the Yankees would have had to offer him something almost too good to be true. Again, it is just my intuition that it was merely an option he left open to himself and probably would have never pulled the trigger.
He knew better than anyone that, without sufficient cavalry, if he ever moved away from his line of communications he would essentially be moving blind. I believe that by May 11-13 he realized how inefficient his intelligence was and so any desire to move had dissipated by the 14th.
Thus, I'm not so sure that by May 14 he was entertaining any such move from Edwards. Meaning that—as you alluded in the below quote— it didn't much matter the he took too long to arrive in Edwards by the 14th.
Now, I'm not saying it didn't matter that he waited until the 14th, I'm just saying I don't think it mattered in terms of making an attack towards Dillon's or against any isolated segment of the enemy.
I've already expressed my thoughts about Pemberton getting to Edwards in time to render command and control for an operation beyond his base.
But I think it is worth mentioning that Pemberton likely expected to fight the decisive battle for Vicksburg in and around Edwards and/or the line of the Big Black. I think he was perfectly satisfied with the disposition of his forces there at Edwards — he had the high ground at Edwards, with Bakers and 14-Mile Creeks to his front and flank, respectively. From his position at Edwards, he also had the three major roads leading to crossings of the Big Black (The RR Bridge, Baldwin's, and Bridgeport) covered.
Thus, I don't think he felt any urgent need to be at Edwards.
But also, it should equally be noted that he was very concerned about the enemy still at Milliken's and Grand Gulf, along with reports of troop transports still on the Mississippi River. He was very concerned that the enemy at those locations would board transports and, backed by a few gunboats, launch beach-style assaults against Warrenton. Clearly, with his lack of reliable intelligence of what was going on across the river at Young's Point, Milliken's Bend, or near Grand Gulf, I think his caution was very warranted.
Additionally, he began receiving reports that Lauman's entire division had boarded transports at Memphis and was moving down to Vicksburg — offering further evidence that an attack against Warrenton might be imminent.
Again, with these potential problems lurking at his rear, and against Vicksburg no less, he was not keen to go off blind into the countryside of Hinds County and off his line of communication. Again, satisfied with his strong position at Edwards, I don't think he was too concerned with his presence at Edwards.
This is absolutely correct.
I agree with this to a certain point. My only observation is that I truly don't think that the fact that McPherson hid his deployment on the battlefield played as big of a role in Gregg's estimation.
Rather, I think it was the fact that McPherson's cavalry had so brilliantly screened McPherson's entire movement from the Crossroads to Utica that Gregg became convinced. I suspect he was convinced well before the battle that he was facing a small force based on that circumstance alone. I don't think McPherson hiding his formation on the battlefield, alone, did the trick. Again, that's just my random thought or suspicion.
My goodness, Tony, I know typing that had to hurt you beyond description!!! That I would ever hear you use "McClernand" and "Brilliant" in the same context makes me wonder if Western Civilization is finally coming to an end!!!


