The Peninsula Pinkerton and Mac

[JerryD]

If one tracks actual Confederate companies present in the Seven Days (companies being 1/10 of a regiment), the total that this produces is 204.7 regiments of all arms in the field army, plus 11.1 in the Richmond militia and garrison (215.8 in total). Another 26.1 arrived in the next month, demonstrating that most of the "Babcock extra" was plausible even if it hadn't actually arrived yet and so it couldn't be thrown out as impossible.


McClellan at this time had about 170 regiments of all arms in his field army, disposing of 117,226 Aggregate Present or 105,825 Present For Duty. Assuming roughly equivalent average company sizes, this comes to:

148,900 Aggregate Present with correct intel (of which the garrison force is about 8,000)
134,400 PFD with correct intel (of which the garrison force is about 7,000)

166,200 AP with Babcock ORBAT
150,000 PFD with Babcock ORBAT

Basically McClellan is outnumbered 5:4 in regiments and companies, instead of 3:2. It still means he's outnumbered.



Other ways of getting at Confederate strength come out much the same way. e.g.


Lee was complaining that he didn't have enough officers for his regiments after the Seven Days, at a time when he had already sent Jackson (but not AP Hill) off back to the north.
On July 20, Lee had 4,333 officers in his army (not counting Jackson) which was up 12 regiments on the Seven Days.


As it happens, McClellan's report for the 10th of July (which includes Fort Monroe and is up nine regiments on Seven Days strength) has a headline number of 4,327 officers PFD. Looking at all McClellan's infantry units gives a range of 19-25.3 enlisted men per officer, with the average being 23 (so officer number * 24 is a rough estimate of PFD strength for an infantry formation).

The same figure for the whole of McClellan's force, sans Fort Monroe, is about 22.3 (so officer number * 23.3 for whole-force PFD) and including Fort Monroe makes it 22 men per officer (so officer number * 23).

Based on this estimate our first-order calculation for Lee's strength on July 20 would be on the order of 99,700-104,000 PFD.

Doing the same calculation with Lee's infantry units using the July 20 strengths means he comes out as about 13.5 to 18.5 officers per man (averaging 15.2), which is far lower (and definitely supports the idea he's not using the same measure of PFD).
Since the AotP corps in March pre-Peninsular campaign were in the range 20.5-23 officers per man (average 22.3) it looks like the reason for the discrepancy is not that McClellan had ended up with a disproportionate number of non-PFD officers; it must be the case that Lee's officer count is proportionate (or low), rather than high.

This means we can estimate Seven Days strength as:
Same number of men per officer as McClellan, for Lee's July 20 strength
+ Jackson and Ewell from Schulte
+ 7 days casualties
- reinforcement regiments (which had arrived by July 20 but which were not at the Seven Days)
- recovered Confederate casualties

4333 officers at Richmond July 20, x 23 by comparison with McClellan = 99,700 PFD
Jackson and Ewell August 1 (7500 + 5700) / 0.8= 16,500 PFD (this is from the Schulte ORBAT and assumes no cavalry went north with Jackson)
Seven Days casualties 20,000 (assume PFD)
12 reinforcement regiments (9152 * 12/13.4) = 8,200 PFD <- this is the reinforcements Lee got post-Seven-Days and by July 20, calculated by comparison with the 13.4-regiment Pennsylvania Reserve division on June 20

Estimate of recovered casualties based on Union...
5th Corps on June 20 exc/ of attached cavalry is (3+493+10940+268+5477+85+2023) (PFD main 5th Corps) + 382+9132 (McCall) for 28803 total
Suffers 56+939 killed and 101 + 2700 captured (3796 unrecoverable casualties) n.b. cav casualties ca. 40 overall, do not affect conclusion
Suffers 194+3611 wounded (3805 recoverable casualties)
Strength July 10 is 20203 + 817 for 21020 total
If no wounded recovered, would be 21202

So recovered casualties 10 days after end of fighting are negligible and/or compensated for by sickness
Will assume 2,000 Confederate casualties recovered by July 20, to argue a fortiori
Thus:
99700 + 16500 + 20000 - 8200 - 2000 =
126,000 PFD

This reminds of the old saying about three types of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Math.

Color me skeptical since I have never seen any established historian get close to these numbers.

 

[Saphroneth]

This reminds of the old saying about three types of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Math.

Color me skeptical since I have never seen any established historian get close to these numbers.

Well, the question is where they're getting their numbers from in the first place. It's a known thing that Confederate definitions of PFD were different to Union ones, and Lee on July 20 (without Jackson's force) is reporting 4,333 officers and that he doesn't have enough officers for his regiments; since McClellan has 4,327 officers (in his headline totals) on July 10 this suggests July 20 Lee and July 10 McClellan are roughly similar in strength. (note that July 10 McClellan includes Fort Monroe)


The alternative is that in fact Lee has more officers per man than McClellan was, but he's just whining about nothing.


Similarly, we know that Lee had more regiments in the Seven Days than McClellan. We can name them, and track batteries and companies to show it.

Schulte's orders of battle for the Northern Virginia campaign give the components of Lee's force which left Richmond a total of 85,549 effectives (which is explicitly 80% of PFD, by comparison with four separate AotP divisions where they are all listed as exactly 80% of the PFD in returns) which would mean 107,000 PFD after the Seven Days battles (or 127,000 PFD before them). Or to put it another way, converting the AotP to this strength definition would give them about 84,000 effectives going into the Seven Days - and Lee had about 85,000 coming out.



So... we know Lee had more officers than McClellan in the Seven Days. We know he had more regiments. Schulte's ORBATs give Lee greater strength than McClellan's forces by the same measure .

None of these, individually, is conclusive - not by any means. But they're different ways of getting at the same information, and they all line up to give Lee roughly a 25% advantage over McClellan - and in such a way that it suggests that either it is correct or Confederate regiments were fundamentally different from Union ones, even at this early point in the war, such that they were all individually weaker and yet they also required more officers per man to run.

 

[67th Tigers]

Tenney's numbers are interesting, in that he used Livermore's corrections. Livermore's numbers are, to a certain extent, miscalibrated. Rebel numbers were really reported as effectives, and there is a good correlation to present.

Tenney gave the rebels 113,242 PFD during the Seven Days. This would equate to ca. 105,000 effectives (rounded to the nearest 1,000), and 126,000 present (ditto).

McClellan's force by the 20th June return was 102,682 PFD, which he reckons 80-83% are effective (a reasonable figure) for 82-85,000 effective. This would give McClellan being outnumbered roughly 5:4. This is a reasonable number.

 

[Nathan Towne]

@67th Tigers
@Saphroneth

I have officially reported Federal casualties in the entire Seven Days at 15,849.

-1,734 Men Killed
-8,062 Men Wounded
-6,053 Men Captured or Missing

Confederate, I have 19,904.

-3,194 Men Killed
-15,758 Men Wounded
-952 Men Captured or Missing

Do you have cumulative, inclusive, U.S. and Confederate casualties for the Peninsula, say, up through July 2nd?

 

[Saphroneth]

I have officially reported Federal casualties in the entire Seven Days at 15,849.

-1,734 Men Killed
-8,062 Men Wounded
-6,053 Men Captured or Missing

Confederate, I have 19,204.

-3,194 Men Killed
-15,758 Men Wounded
-952 Men Captured or Missing

Those figures broadly comport to my understanding (certainly for the Union), though for the Confederates I have 19,975 totalling all the figures on OR S1 V11 P2 pg 973-984 (which, I will note, gives no July 2 values). The Wikipedia total appears to be missing some casualties, but I will note that 3194 + 15758 + 952 is actually 19904 so someone's made an addition error there!

 

[Saphroneth]

OR S1 V11 P2 pg 973-984 gives 873 total WIA, but some brigades just give a raw casualty figure. I could tally up all the explicitly noted wounded and killed, but again there will be some cases where brigades just give a raw casualty figure without breaking it down into KIA and WIA.

 

[Nathan Towne]

Those figures broadly comport to my understanding (certainly for the Union), though for the Confederates I have 19,975 totalling all the figures on OR S1 V11 P2 pg 973-984 (which, I will note, gives no July 2 values). The Wikipedia total appears to be missing some casualties, but I will note that 3194 + 15758 + 952 is actually 19904 so someone's made an addition error there!

I have 11 OR 2:984 and that someone was me, I think.

 

[Saphroneth]

I have 11 OR 2:984.

11 OR 2:984 contains no bottom line, which is why I had to go through and add everything up individually. This is the bottom of 984 and the top of 985:

My totals (counting all casualties by brigade) are:

Corps​

Division​

Brigade​

Oak Grove​

Beaver Dam Creek/ Mechanicsville​

Garnetts and Goldings​

Gaines Mill​

Savage Station/ Peach Orchard​

White Oak Swamp​

Glendale​

Malvern​

Total if not broken down​

​

Grand total​

Jackson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Whiting​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Hood​

​

​

​

571​

​

​

​

52​

​

​

623​

​

​

Law​

​

​

​

446​

​

​

​

123​

​

​

569​

​

Jackson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Winder​

​

​

​

75​

​

​

​

104​

​

​

179​

​

​

Jones​

​

​

​

7​

​

​

​

4​

​

​

11​

​

​

Fulkerson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

18​

​

18​

​

​

Lawton​

​

​

​

492​

​

​

​

75​

​

​

567​

​

Ewell​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Elzey​

​

​

​

246​

​

​

​

38​

​

​

284​

​

​

Trimble​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

400​

​

400​

​

​

Seymour​

​

​

​

174​

​

​

​

118​

​

​

292​

​

Maryland Line​

​

​

​

​

8​

​

​

​

3​

​

​

11​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

DH Hill​

DH Hill​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Rodes​

​

​

​

145​

​

​

​

425​

​

​

570​

​

​

GB Anderson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

863​

​

863​

​

​

Garland​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

844​

​

844​

​

​

Colquitt​

​

​

​

354​

​

​

​

200​

​

​

554​

​

​

Ripley​

​

575​

​

69​

​

​

​

264​

​

​

908​

Magruder​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

Jones​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Toombs​

​

​

211​

​

​

​

​

219​

​

​

430​

​

​

Anderson​

​

​

196​

​

28​

​

​

198​

​

​

422​

​

​

Artillery​

​

1​

19​

​

6​

​

​

1​

​

​

27​

​

McLaws​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Semmes​

​

​

​

​

64​

​

​

151​

​

​

215​

​

​

Kershaw​

​

​

​

​

293​

​

​

164​

​

​

457​

​

Magruder​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Cobb​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

415​

​

​

415​

​

​

Barksdale​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

525​

​

525​

Longstreet​

Longstreet​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Kemper​

​

​

​

​

​

​

414​

​

​

​

414​

​

​

Anderson​

​

​

​

173​

​

​

365​

​

249​

​

787​

​

​

Pickett​

​

​

​

426​

​

​

228​

​

​

​

654​

​

​

Wilcox​

​

​

​

584​

​

​

471​

​

​

​

1055​

​

​

Pryor​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

862​

​

862​

​

​

Featherston​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

666​

​

666​

​

​

Richmond Howitzers/3rd​

​

​

​

​

​

​

1​

​

​

​

1​

Huger​

Huger​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Mahone​

32​

​

​

​

​

​

76​

329​

​

​

437​

​

​

Wright​

273​

​

​

​

​

​

​

393​

​

​

666​

​

​

Armistead​

11​

​

​

​

​

​

2​

288​

​

​

301​

​

​

Artillery​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

27​

​

​

27​

AP Hill​

AP Hill​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Field​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

570​

​

570​

​

​

Gregg​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

929​

​

929​

​

​

Anderson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

364​

​

364​

​

​

Branch​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

839​

​

839​

​

​

Archer​

​

214​

​

321​

​

​

​

​

​

​

535​

​

​

Pender​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

800​

​

800​

​

​

Artillery​

​

11​

​

33​

​

​

4​

​

60​

​

108​

Holmes​

Holmes​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Ransom​

125​

​

​

​

​

​

​

499​

​

​

624​

​

​

Daniel​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

24​

​

​

24​

​

​

Walker​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

12​

​

​

12​

​

​

Artillery​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

17​

​

​

17​

​

Cavalry​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

71​

​

​

71​

​

Reserve Art​

Jones​

​

11​

​

2​

​

13​

​

​

​

​

26​

​

​

Nelson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

2​

​

2​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

​

Oak Grove​

Beaver Dam Creek/ Mechanicsville​

Garnetts and Goldings​

Gaines Mill​

Savage Station/ Peach Orchard​

White Oak Swamp​

Glendale​

Malvern​

Total if not broken down​

​

0​

​

​

​

441​

812​

426​

4126​

391​

13​

1561​

4214​

7991​

0​

19975​

ED: even as I post it, I notice that I missed out two from Jones so the total should be 19977. Hopefully that's the only error...

 

[Nathan Towne]

11 OR 2:984 contains no bottom line, which is why I had to go through and add everything up individually. This is the bottom of 984 and the top of 985:


View attachment 467352



My totals (counting all casualties by brigade) are:

Corps​

Division​

Brigade​

Oak Grove​

Beaver Dam Creek/ Mechanicsville​

Garnetts and Goldings​

Gaines Mill​

Savage Station/ Peach Orchard​

White Oak Swamp​

Glendale​

Malvern​

Total if not broken down​

​

Grand total​

Jackson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Whiting​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Hood​

​

​

​

571​

​

​

​

52​

​

​

623​

​

​

Law​

​

​

​

446​

​

​

​

123​

​

​

569​

​

Jackson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Winder​

​

​

​

75​

​

​

​

104​

​

​

179​

​

​

Jones​

​

​

​

7​

​

​

​

4​

​

​

11​

​

​

Fulkerson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

18​

​

18​

​

​

Lawton​

​

​

​

492​

​

​

​

75​

​

​

567​

​

Ewell​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Elzey​

​

​

​

246​

​

​

​

38​

​

​

284​

​

​

Trimble​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

400​

​

400​

​

​

Seymour​

​

​

​

174​

​

​

​

118​

​

​

292​

​

Maryland Line​

​

​

​

​

8​

​

​

​

3​

​

​

11​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

DH Hill​

DH Hill​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Rodes​

​

​

​

145​

​

​

​

425​

​

​

570​

​

​

GB Anderson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

863​

​

863​

​

​

Garland​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

844​

​

844​

​

​

Colquitt​

​

​

​

354​

​

​

​

200​

​

​

554​

​

​

Ripley​

​

575​

​

69​

​

​

​

264​

​

​

908​

Magruder​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

Jones​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Toombs​

​

​

211​

​

​

​

​

219​

​

​

430​

​

​

Anderson​

​

​

196​

​

28​

​

​

198​

​

​

422​

​

​

Artillery​

​

1​

19​

​

6​

​

​

1​

​

​

27​

​

McLaws​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Semmes​

​

​

​

​

64​

​

​

151​

​

​

215​

​

​

Kershaw​

​

​

​

​

293​

​

​

164​

​

​

457​

​

Magruder​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Cobb​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

415​

​

​

415​

​

​

Barksdale​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

525​

​

525​

Longstreet​

Longstreet​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Kemper​

​

​

​

​

​

​

414​

​

​

​

414​

​

​

Anderson​

​

​

​

173​

​

​

365​

​

249​

​

787​

​

​

Pickett​

​

​

​

426​

​

​

228​

​

​

​

654​

​

​

Wilcox​

​

​

​

584​

​

​

471​

​

​

​

1055​

​

​

Pryor​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

862​

​

862​

​

​

Featherston​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

666​

​

666​

​

​

Richmond Howitzers/3rd​

​

​

​

​

​

​

1​

​

​

​

1​

Huger​

Huger​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Mahone​

32​

​

​

​

​

​

76​

329​

​

​

437​

​

​

Wright​

273​

​

​

​

​

​

​

393​

​

​

666​

​

​

Armistead​

11​

​

​

​

​

​

2​

288​

​

​

301​

​

​

Artillery​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

27​

​

​

27​

AP Hill​

AP Hill​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Field​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

570​

​

570​

​

​

Gregg​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

929​

​

929​

​

​

Anderson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

364​

​

364​

​

​

Branch​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

839​

​

839​

​

​

Archer​

​

214​

​

321​

​

​

​

​

​

​

535​

​

​

Pender​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

800​

​

800​

​

​

Artillery​

​

11​

​

33​

​

​

4​

​

60​

​

108​

Holmes​

Holmes​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

Ransom​

125​

​

​

​

​

​

​

499​

​

​

624​

​

​

Daniel​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

24​

​

​

24​

​

​

Walker​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

12​

​

​

12​

​

​

Artillery​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

17​

​

​

17​

​

Cavalry​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

71​

​

​

71​

​

Reserve Art​

Jones​

​

11​

​

2​

​

13​

​

​

​

​

26​

​

​

Nelson​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

2​

​

2​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

0​

​

​

​

Oak Grove​

Beaver Dam Creek/ Mechanicsville​

Garnetts and Goldings​

Gaines Mill​

Savage Station/ Peach Orchard​

White Oak Swamp​

Glendale​

Malvern​

Total if not broken down​

​

0​

​

​

​

441​

812​

426​

4126​

391​

13​

1561​

4214​

7991​

0​

19975​

I added it up awhile back. It runs from 11 OR 2:502-510 and 11 OR 2:973-984. I updated the casualty sections of a bunch of Wikipedia pages back in 2014 and in 2020 so that they reflected real data.

 

[Saphroneth]

I added it up awhile back. It runs from 11 OR 2:973-984

Sure, I've done the same. Thing is, the totals you gave are identical to the Wikipedia ones (ed: I now see why!) and I'm not sure how you got the totals wounded and missing given that - for example - Pender's brigade just has "800" in the total casualty column without any breakdown and it's marked as being "approximate". Anderson's brigade also does not count out killed/wounded/missing.

 

[Nathan Towne]

Sure, I've done the same. Thing is, the totals you gave are identical to the Wikipedia ones (ed: I now see why!) and I'm not sure how you got the totals wounded and missing given that - for example - Pender's brigade just has "800" in the total casualty column without any breakdown and it's marked as being "approximate". Anderson's brigade also does not count out killed/wounded/missing.

My principal objective with this one was trying to take out the double counting which Sears contained.

I need to do the same for Confederate casualties at Murfreesboro, which were really, officially, 10,266. Bragg even specifically noted in his Report the approximate number of wounded being left behind. He also recorded that they left behind approximately 300 sick/ill in the field hospitals.

 

[Saphroneth]

My principal objective with this one was trying to take out the double counting which Sears contained.

I'm not sure the source of that one. My own count comes to within about 230 of the Sears figures, for the Confederates, and your own count (if the addition error is removed) comes to exactly 300 short of the Sears figures (with the whole difference being KIA) - though I'm still not sure how you get the exact KIA/WIA breakdown from Pender etc. Unless you're apportioning Pender and Anderson by the average distribution of the others.

I need to do the same for Confederate casualties at Murfreesboro, which were really, officially, just over 10,200.

In the sense of WIA being recorded and then left behind to be captured?

 

[wausaubob]

Did the estimates make sense given the general size of the white male population of the 11 secessionist states as of 1860?

p. xvii https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1860/population/1860a-02.pdf
People in Washington had a rough idea of the size of the other Confederate armies. Plus the US War Department knew what the US had been able to mobilize, and had to man a navy at the same time. Given what was known about the Confederate recruitment area, did Pinkerton's count make sense at to what the Confederacy was capable of? I suppose early in the war Virginia may have been capable of temporarily supporting a Confederate army of the size indicated in Pinkerton's estimates. But there is not much evidence that the eastern theater Confederates ever assembled an army of the size described in the posts above at any subsequent time.

 

[Saphroneth]

But there is not much evidence that the eastern theater Confederates ever assembled an army of the size described in the posts above at any subsequent time.

Well, that depends what you mean by "not much evidence". Certainly Lee's army going into Gettysburg (after many tens of thousands of casualties) was still pretty big.

 

[wausaubob]

Well, that depends what you mean by "not much evidence". Certainly Lee's army going into Gettysburg (after many tens of thousands of casualties) was still pretty big.

A mobile force of about 60,000 operating on the move in June and July weather, in Maryland and so Pennsylvania, it probably was a sizable force. But that's different from Virginia supporting Richmond and the stationary 110,000 Confederate army estimated by Pinkierton.

 

[wausaubob]

Lee had all those soldiers available and he didn't bag McClellan's army and end the war right then and there? Lee was fighting close to his capital on terrain in which everyone was friendly to his cause. And if he couldn't crush McClellan with the numbers Lee had available, something was wrong. Maybe it was the numbers?

 

[Saphroneth]

A mobile force of about 60,000 operating on the move in June and July weather, in Maryland and so Pennsylvania, it probably was a sizable force. But that's different from Virginia supporting Richmond and the stationary 110,000 Confederate army estimated by Pinkierton.

60,000? That's smaller than any estimate I've seen of Lee's army at Gettysburg.

To take an example, Lee's force at Fredericksburg was about 78,000 strong. That's after suffering from 20,000 casualties in the Seven Days, 9,000 in Second Bull Run, more than 12,000 at Antietam... do you think that those units expanded over time?

ED: There were 215 regiments in Richmond in the Seven Days, and 36 more arrived within the month. How big on average is the largest you think is realistic for Richmond to support?

 

[Saphroneth]

Lee had all those soldiers available and he didn't bag McClellan's army and end the war right then and there? Lee was fighting close to his capital on terrain in which everyone was friendly to his cause. And if he couldn't crush McClellan with the numbers Lee had available, something was wrong. Maybe it was the numbers?

Or maybe McClellan (fighting on the whole on the defensive in some of the major battles) was able to manoeuvre such that Lee was never able to cut him off from his base?

The events of the Seven Days all make operational sense, with the one case where a defensive line is broken through by a hasty attack (without engineering and artillery support) being Gaines Mill.

 

[WScott]

I think McClellan always went with the inflated numbers regardless of who was providing them, Pinkerton, his own staff or some other source. McClellan was an excellent General in all aspects except for actual combat, the inflated enemy numbers was his comfort zone for not doing what he knew he should have.

 

[Nathan Towne]

60,000? That's smaller than any estimate I've seen of Lee's army at Gettysburg.

To take an example, Lee's force at Fredericksburg was about 78,000 strong. That's after suffering from 20,000 casualties in the Seven Days, 9,000 in Second Bull Run, more than 12,000 at Antietam... do you think that those units expanded over time?

ED: There were 215 regiments in Richmond in the Seven Days, and 36 more arrived within the month. How big on average is the largest you think is realistic for Richmond to support?

The ANV had a little over 79,000 men at the time Gettysburg was fought. Approximately 71,600 in engaged units.

The U.S. Army had a little over 112,000 men allocated to the Army during the campaign. I think that it was around 104,000 at the time the battle was fought. A little more than 93,000 of them committed at Gettysburg.

See: Busey and Martin, who compiled the numbers via immense study.