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I recall seeing a program on the mafia where a mob enforcer said that the secret to success in his job, as taught to him by his father, was not to worry about what the other guy was going to do do you; only worry about what you were going to do to him. Recall Grant's famous quote: "Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do." I think Lee also had this quality of making his plans and not worrying about what the enemy might do.
Thinking about Lee and this statement, I remember The Wilderness.
After two days there, Grant looked out over the smouldering field and saw Lee's army digging in on the other side, waiting for him to come on again. He said to a member of his staff: "After two such days, Joe Johnston would have retreated."
Lee stood on the other side, wondering what Grant would do. Lee had just hit the AoP as hard or harder than he had Hooker at Chancellorsville. Hooker had retreated then; Hooker probably would have retreated now. What about Grant?
A reasonable course was to pull back to Fredericksburg, now open. Grant could evacuate his wounded, rest and reorganize. Most generals would after such a fight, and they could at least claim to have secured the crossing of the Rappahannock where Burnside and Hooker had failed.
But Lee thought something else was possible. He could not remember Grant from Mexico, but he had studied his campaigns in the West (the year before he had commented that Grant appeared to be a fighter, and that Pemberton did not appear to be one.) He had talked with Longstreet, a member of Grant's wedding party, and Longstreet said Grant would fight them each and every day the war lasted.
So Lee looked at his maps and considered what the ANV should do. If Grant wasn't going to move to Fredericksburg, another possibility stood out: continue the move towards Richmond. If he was doing that, he'd go through Spotslyvania. So Lee positioned himself to do something about that while he waited, he sent Anderson (Longstreet's old Corps) to Spotsylvania, where they'd be positioned to block the road to Richmond.
Grant, of course, was moving to his right that night, trying to slip past Lee at Spotsylvania. Lee lucked out, as Anderson marched through the night because of the burning woods. The armies smashed into one another.
But Lee's luck was deserved. He was acting to impose his will on the situation before he had any indication of Grant's movement. Grant was doing the same, trying to make Lee react to his moves, to make the campaign fit his will.
That's the reason the Overland Campaign is seen by so many as a butchery, an indecisive slugging match. In reality, the moves are quick and deadly, the calculations and decisions full of risk. Only the skill of the commanders and the bravery of the men makes it appear so brutal. Had the armies been less tough or one of the commanders less talented, either the AoP would have been beaten back or Richmond would have fallen much quicker.
Tim