The Confederacy was not going to win, ever.
In the first phase of the conflict, the political and military struggle to control the 5 border areas, the situation had totally changed by 1857.
https://eh.net/encyclopedia/history-of-the-u-s-telegraph-industry/ The telegraph sped up the US response. During this initial phase, the wire was connected in Utah and California, Oregon and Nevada were added to the network.
By winning this phase, even while losing the battles tactically, the US created the 23 to 11 imbalance, and the US had possession of W. Virginia, Nebraska and Nevada, the next three states.
In the second phase, the fact that the US controlled the 4 major ship building ports, in Philadelphia, New York/Brooklyn, Boston and Portsmouth on the border between New Hampshire and Maine, as well as the naval manpower, both civilian captains and sailors, was a huge advantage that was going to allow the US to establish all the additional coastal stations they needed, and serve the stations they retained.
But that was not all. The controlled steamboat building on the Ohio and middle Mississippi River, and as could have been predicted, gunboats and transports played a decisive role in further expanding US controlled territory.
Beyond that, the rate at which the Midwest was growing, the pace at which it economy was recovering by 1861, and the fact that domestic and international immigration resumed, while the war continued, meant that there was an expanding transportation and agricultural sector in the Midwestern states. There was nothing the Confederates could do about that. Since they never made any strategic gains, their opponent was getting stronger.
In the far west, there was an enormous imbalance in forces. Without much fighting, western unionist battalions took control of both Arizona and New Mexico. Life, and financial support of the US, went on as normal in most of the far west. Again, the US was growing while fighting the war. People on the east coast did not know about it, or particularly care about it.