-an Ernest effort at an early assault on the Warwick line
Okay, thanks for that one - can you give me some more information on this? Do you mean on the 5th, on the 6th, or after the rainstorm (i.e. on the 10th at the earliest)? This helps define the strength of the enemy force.
I'm also assuming (unless you tell me otherwise) that you either mean an assault at the points of contact (on the 5th) or one all along the line (on the 6th or 10th).
-a counterattack after Malvern Hill
This one, on the other hand, has a much more obvious problem, elaborated on thus:
The fighting at Malvern Hill took place until 8:30 PM, which is effectively the end of the day (i.e. sunset/end of twilight) at that time of year - what this means is that a counterattack either takes place at night (which is frankly foolish) or that it takes place the next day, on the 2nd.
However, the 2nd is the fifth day in a row McClellan's army has been out of supply (those being the 28th, 29th, 30th, 1st and now 2nd) and attacking away from Malvern Hill means attacking away from the nearest viable base of supply (that being Harrisons Landing) and leaving it open to Lee's force to cut McClellan off, as he was historically planning.
An attack on the morning of the 2nd can easily be responded to by Lee having his right wing give ground to absorb pressure, thus:
(n.b. some of the Jackson force may actually be with the Magruder etc. force in practice. "Fresh" means not used in battle on the 1st by the Confederates). The likely position for Magruder to fall back to is probably to use Baily's Run as part of his right flank line.
while McClellan marches further away from his source of supply and Longstreet interposes himself to block that source of supply.
Essentially the problem is that the amy cannot feed itself on Malvern - the navy won't escort supplies past City Point - and by this point just about every formation has been in at least one big battle and are running low on ammunition as well as food. In the situation shown above (which only requires that McClellan's attack on the 2nd
succeeds in driving Magruder back a mile or two) the AotP is on the far side of the Confederate army from their own supply base, and would have to withdraw back to the July 1 position just to free up the troops to attack Longstreet.
Even if McClellan succeeds completely and pushes Magruder's wing enough to make them fracture (no mean feat, it's 18 brigades counting Holmes and six of them are fully rested - that's comparable to half the Union army) then McClellan still doesn't have a supply of food or ammunition. He certainly can't break into Richmond like this...
So the fundamental problem with a post-Malvern counterattack is feeding and supplying the Union army.
ED: map correction. The fighting front marked as "Couch" and "Morell" was actually ten and a half brigades (Caldwell, Sickles, Meagher, Butterfield, Martindale, Griffin, Lovell, Buchanan, Weeden, Howe, half of Palmer) with Warren's brigade covering the bridge over the creek to the left of Malvern Hill proper and half of Palmer at the Turkey Island Creek bridge. The only reserve is McCall.