From reading "Defending the Arterias of Rebellion" I got the impression that the Confederacy had a quite promising start around N.O. with Hollins - but then quite blundered it all.So how do you break the blockade, how do you prevent more union landings.
I must admit I am not knowledgeable enough to do anything else but build castles in the air - but with such a interesting question I just cannot refrain from start building such a castle…..
1) I´d deem union landings and the usage of inland waterways for Union incursions to be not a too serious threat. For once the Confederacy could take advantage from the South´s underdeveloped infrastructure: A lot of effort would be necessary for the Union to develop such an incursion into something more substantial (Burnside´s North Carolina Expedition comes to one´s mind).
2) The Confederacy needn´t to be competitive on blue water - they could take advantage of the fact that a lot more ships are needed to continually keep a blockade up - than to punctually harass the blockading squadrons. Just a few seagoing vessels could suffice to take advantage of promising situations (maybe the federals bungled the change of shift of their blockading ships, maybe a federal ship ran aground or developed engine problems….). A few quick, successful attacks could made it necessary for the Union to invest much more ressources in upkeeping the blockade (hence prolonging the war, weakening operations on other fronts...).
3) To have those seagoing vessels, to keep them seaworthy and to repair eventual battle damage the Confederacy should - first of all things - have tried to defend their scarce shipbuilding capabilities in N.O. and Norfolk as long as possible.
4) And they should have done a much better job coordinating and organizing their shipbuilding: instead of scattering money and ressources all over the place they should have concentrated on a few promising projects. Why starting those monster ironclads in N.O. that ate up so much time, ressources and workforce - when a few well designed ironclads of much more moderate size would do the job far better? They would have been operable far earlier, they would have been much easier to maneuvre and to power - and given the then prevailing " Merrimac scare" would have stalled federal operations for quite some time.
5) The Confederates build quite some ironclads in the backwoods, using recycled insufficient power plants, unsuitable wood and unskilled workers - building them in Algiers or Norfolk should have gotten them much better vessels. Many of those "backwoods-ironclads" lost their battleworthiness because they couldn´t get proper maintenance - which would have been possible if they operated from N.O. or Norfolk.
My castle-in-the-air-question would be:
- given the Confederates held to Norfolk
- given they assembled there a fleet of let´s say four ironclads of moderate size (and some smaller vessels)
- given they chose a promising situation (when naval presence of the USN was reduced for some reason)
and steamed down to Wilmington to attack the blockading ships there….
- retreating to Wilmington if things went awry
- then waiting on another promising situation...
(Well, this should have produced quite some perturbance in the hen-house….)
How many ships, ressources and naval presence would it take the Union to guard against such expeditions?