Research The Canadian Problem

Saphroneth

Major
Joined
Feb 18, 2017
Mixing and matching. The totals in LC were skewed heavily in favor of the "Francophones". And yes, marching forward 10 years, it appears to have "backfired". But we're discussing intentions in 1839-1840, not as things were by 1850. I would resist the conclusion that Syndenham had a crystal ball in 1840 absent evidence to the contrary. There's no evidence that he did and he clearly was motivated by strong anti-Francophone sentiments. What happened in the next decade was the result of intense - and successful - immigration efforts to what had been UC.
The thing is, the trend of UC's population expanding faster than that of LC was already in place - which is why it wouldn't require a crystal ball, because the population growth of UC was noticeably faster than LC.

Taking the five known jumps from one census year to the next for UC, and the four for LC (including the estimated 1840 population), there is consistently higher population growth on a % basis for UC compared to LC both before and after the formation of the Province of Canada:

Upper Canada​
Lower Canada
Years​
Average yearly population growth​
Period ending​
Years​
Average yearly population growth​
Period ending​
18​
4.27%​
1824​
19​
3.48%​
1825​
1​
5.24%​
1825​
6​
2.42%​
1831​
7​
7.59%​
1832​
8​
6.38%​
1840​
9​
1.81%​
1840​
8​
6.70%​
1848​
4​
1.76%​
1844​

ED: And, as we can see from 67th's quote, these trends were indeed known in 1840.
 
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