Gettysburg: the Ultimate "what if"...

[Ethan S.]

If I were Lee, I would have listened to Longstreet. Push South, down towards Washington, swing behind Meades army. Choose your own ground to fight on, capture Washington even. If they would have done that, the war would have been won, don't you think?

 

[John Wolf Smith]

I would do this and put the army of Northern Virginia at Pip Creek.

 

[thomas aagaard]

no.

Look at a map of the road network back then.
Understand that a army marching down one road take more than one day to pass a single point.

There is no way that Lee would have been able to get the entire army around Meade and between him and Washington before Meade could hit him.

 

[MRB1863]

The "what if's" are interesting. In the same way as Monday morning quarterbacking, as neither the highlight films or the score will change. I think if Lee had decided to march from Gettysburg for another tactical advantage it would not have worked because he would have spread his force and supplies too thin to defend an organized offensive. Therefore he opted to chose his ground, valiantly jousted, and came up short. I do personally think he made a herculean effort at Gettysburg (along with a few miscalls). I often wonder what the Vegas oddsmakers would have forecasted prior to July 1.

 

[Carronade]

This comes up from time to time, but the thing that remains unanswered is what would the Union command be doing? Would they let Lee just march around them? If the ANV dug into some strong defensive position, would the AofP obligingly beat itself to death in frontal assaults? We should be leery of strategies that depend on the enemy's cooperation

 

[Carronade]

"General Meade will make no blunder on my front, and if I make one, he will make haste to take advantage of it."

- Robert E. Lee, upon hearing that Meade had taken command of the AofP

 

[jackt62]

Longstreet was correct in criticizing Lee's planned assault to "roll up" the federal line at Emmittsburg Road. But the ANV lacked good intelligence about the disposition of Union forces in that area and was unaware of the prompt reinforcement of LRT, a position which further extended the federal flank. That being said, Longstreet's plan to wheel around the federal army completely and offer battle in a location that would be more favorable to the ANV, was unrealistic given the bigger lack of intelligence about the whereabouts of all federal forces, position and condition of roads and terrain, and the ability to ensure a continuous supply line. Personally, the ANV should probably have called it a day by declaring victory after Day 1, and withdrawn mostly intact back to Virginia.

 

[luinrina]

@Ethan S. , you might be interested in reading the alternate trilogy by Newt Gingrich and William R. Forstchen, "Gettysburg", "Grant Comes East" and "Never Call Retreat". The novel "Gettysburg" touches on that very question, what if Lee had listened to Longstreet and marched around Meade, and the other two books explore what happenes afterwards. I don't know how feasible the various army movements described would have been, and there are a couple issues with the novels that make me cringe now and then (Lee calling Longstreet Pete for instance), but overall, the books are nicely and grippingly written. There were moments when I couldn't put them away.

 

[Irishtom29]

If they would have done that, the war would have been won, don't you think?

No, I don't think. I think Americans had more resolution than to give up just because of another whipping in the east and the fall of Washington. Especially given that the rebels were losing in the west, with Vicksburg about to fall and Rosecrans pushing Bragg from middle Tennessee. Move the capitol to Springfield Illinois or Madison Wisconsin and keep going.

 

[wausaubob]

There is no evidence that Meade would allow Lee's army to come between Meade's army and Washington, D.C. And there is no evidence that if that had happened briefly, that Meade would not start a flanking movement to get closer to Washington, D.C. If a series of movements towards Washington begins, eventually Lee is blocked by the Washington fortifications, and the news that Vicksburg has fallen arrives before there is a big battle. Lee had until about July 7, 1863, before there was going to be a crisp decline in Confederate moral.

 

[Ethan S.]

I may be thinking along the lines of Lees Chancellorsville syndrome here, but Meade is new to command, he needs a little bit of time to coordinate his army, new to command. Meade will be cautious at first, perhaps slow moving. We turn down towards the South, cut them off. Northern morale is low, fresh from Fredericksburg, and Chancellorsville. Perhaps morale will be heightened because of an attack on Washington, but it will be on ground of our own choosing, they'll have no choice but to attack...

 

[wausaubob]

Meade did not have to fight. All he had to do was keep Lee in Pennsylvania for another week. The timeline for the fall of Vicksburg was not that mysterious, and Rosecrans and Thomas had figured out how to use the Tennessee terrain to screen movements. From June 17, 1863, the US was rolling.

 

[Ethan S.]

Meade did not have to fight. All he had to do was keep Lee in Pennsylvania for another week. The timeline for the fall of Vicksburg was not that mysterious, and Rosecrans and Thomas had figured out how to use the Tennessee terrain to screen movements. From June 17, 1863, the US was rolling.

In my mind, I could be wrong, but in my mind, if Lee could have captured Washington, or at least put it in extreme danger of being captured, I don't think Vicksburg would have amounted to a hill of beans.

What if...

 

[jackt62]

if Lee could have captured Washington,

Not even plausible as a "what-if" scenario. Attacking Washington would have meant assaulting a heavily fortified series of fixed entrenchments, an undertaking for which Lee and the ANV was not prepared to do.

According to the Alliance to Preserve the Civil War Defenses of Washington:
"Union officials began to fortify the capital and its treasury against the feared invasion. By the end of the Civil War, the city was the most heavily fortified city in the world, bristling with 68 forts and artillery emplacements, more than 1,000 guns and mortars, and 20 miles of connecting roads, trench lines, and rifle pits. Constructing the Defenses of Washington was the greatest engineering project of the war. Under the direction of the army's chief engineer, Colonel John G. Barnard, thousands of soldiers and civilian workers labored throughout the war to turn rural farm fields, orchards, and woodlands into an imposing system of connected defensive fortifications."

 

[Ethan S.]

Not even plausible as a "what-if" scenario. Attacking Washington would have meant assaulting a heavily fortified series of fixed entrenchments, an undertaking for which Lee and the ANV was not prepared to do.

According to the Alliance to Preserve the Civil War Defenses of Washington:
"Union officials began to fortify the capital and its treasury against the feared invasion. By the end of the Civil War, the city was the most heavily fortified city in the world, bristling with 68 forts and artillery emplacements, more than 1,000 guns and mortars, and 20 miles of connecting roads, trench lines, and rifle pits. Constructing the Defenses of Washington was the greatest engineering project of the war. Under the direction of the army's chief engineer, Colonel John G. Barnard, thousands of soldiers and civilian workers labored throughout the war to turn rural farm fields, orchards, and woodlands into an imposing system of connected defensive fortifications."

Ah, c'mon, even with the bandbox soldiers?

I guess I can't make fun of them, my gggreat grandfather was there.

It is a good point though. We (at least some of us) make fun of "the band box regiments", but they made up one of the greatest defense systems out there.

 

[Rhea Cole]

The ultimate what if, in my opinion, is what would have followed had Meade acted like Grant & hounded Lee back to the Potomac. General Imboden, in charge of the wagon train of wounded, reported that the first resupply of artillery ammunition came over the river as the wagon train of wounded crossed the Potomac. Imboden issued it out to artillery batteries devoid of ammunition & defended the river crossing. Lee's army was without the means to defend itself, it had no ammunition. As it was, Lee abandoned wounded & had stragglers captured totaling more than 10,000 men. A vigorous Western Army style follow up would have destroyed Lee's army north of the Potomac.

The wagon train of wounded, as reported by Gen Imboden was 40 miles long. Every wagon available to the army was used to evacuate the wounded. As Imboden remarked, had the pursuit struck the wagon train in force, it would have resulted in a loss the Confederacy had no means to recoup. The description of a inspector general who reported on Hood's army after it crossed the Tennessee in 1864 would also have described the A.o.N.V., "...nothing but a disarmed mob..."

On a purely personal note, had a Phillip Sheridan with Grant backing him up slammed into Lee's retreat, I might not be here to write this. Both my wife & I had relations who had survived the slaughter of Lee's attacks. They were somewheres amongst the weary sloggers headed for the Potomac. For my part, it all worked out exactly right. Any changes might have been disasterous. Personally, I think things turned out just right.

 

[jackt62]

Ah, c'mon, even with the bandbox soldiers?

As long as they are standing behind the cannon, not facing it.

 

[Ethan S.]

As long as they are standing behind the cannon, not facing it.

View attachment 336063

Hehe, forgit about it. They can have Washington. How about Baltimore instead?

 

[Luke Freet]

@Ethan S. , you might be interested in reading the alternate trilogy by Newt Gingrich and William R. Forstchen, "Gettysburg", "Grant Comes East" and "Never Call Retreat". The novel "Gettysburg" touches on that very question, what if Lee had listened to Longstreet and marched around Meade, and the other two books explore what happenes afterwards. I don't know how feasible the various army movements described would have been, and there are a couple issues with the novels that make me cringe now and then (Lee calling Longstreet Pete for instance), but overall, the books are nicely and grippingly written. There were moments when I couldn't put them away.

I love that book, but I will never forgive the authors for saying Scales commanded a South Carolina Brigade.

 

[Eleanor Rose]

@Ethan S. , you might be interested in reading the alternate trilogy by Newt Gingrich and William R. Forstchen, "Gettysburg", "Grant Comes East" and "Never Call Retreat". The novel "Gettysburg" touches on that very question, what if Lee had listened to Longstreet and marched around Meade, and the other two books explore what happenes afterwards. I don't know how feasible the various army movements described would have been, and there are a couple issues with the novels that make me cringe now and then (Lee calling Longstreet Pete for instance), but overall, the books are nicely and grippingly written. There were moments when I couldn't put them away.

I think I might enjoy those Lu. If it mentions Longstreet, I"m usually all in.