Confederate strategy.

Which was a good strategy for the Confederacy to pursue?

  • Occupy Washington, D.C.

    Votes: 15 42.9%
  • Exhaust the will to fight in the United States.

    Votes: 19 54.3%
  • Demonstrate national courage and dedication.

    Votes: 6 17.1%
  • Expand the Confederate coalition.

    Votes: 5 14.3%
  • Emancipate the slaves.

    Votes: 4 11.4%

  • Total voters
    35
  • Poll closed .
If there is no plan, then the responsible decision maker never has to admit how poor the odds are from the beginning.
No one ever has to admit that the plan did not work.
Nor is the ever a logical stopping point.
If there is no plan then the stopping point becomes when there are no more soldiers capable of fighting.
Essentially that is,what happened. Davis has mentioned tried different options but they failed. As others mentioned freeing or arming slaves early in the war was not an option. No evidence that arming slaves would of worked.
Leftyhunter
 
I have been thinking about this a little bit.

I have always been of the opinion that the CSA's biggest mistake was to not concentrate their strength enough in Virginia. They should have weakened Middle Tennessee and Jackson, Mississippi in the Spring of 1863 and bolstered Lee's strength by 30,000 more men under Beauregard or Longstreet. Lee had talked to Davis about prior to embarking on the 2nd invasion about bringing Beauregard up from Charleston with a force to apply direct pressure on Washington by the usual route thru Manassas while he tramped around PA. Imagine if Meade had been forced to leave 2 corps in Northern VA to block Beauregard and then facing Lee in PA with something close to even numbers or less.
 
I have been thinking about this a little bit.

I have always been of the opinion that the CSA's biggest mistake was to not concentrate their strength enough in Virginia. They should have weakened Middle Tennessee and Jackson, Mississippi in the Spring of 1863 and bolstered Lee's strength by 30,000 more men under Beauregard or Longstreet. Lee had talked to Davis about prior to embarking on the 2nd invasion about bringing Beauregard up from Charleston with a force to apply direct pressure on Washington by the usual route thru Manassas while he tramped around PA. Imagine if Meade had been forced to leave 2 corps in Northern VA to block Beauregard and then facing Lee in PA with something close to even numbers or less.
This situation is directly attributable to Jefferson Davis who, like Adolf Hitler eighty years later, refused to give up any territory regardless of the effect. I'm currently reading an excellent study of the Shiloh campaign and even as early as winter and spring of 1862 the problem arises. The appropriate military maxim is He who defends everything, defends nothing.
 
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  1. Occupy Washington, D.C.
    Couldn't work when the option was there
    Wouldn't work, and probably couldn't be done later on
  2. Exhaust the will to fight in the United States.
    Didn't Work
  3. Demonstrate national courage and dedication.
    Didn't work and history shows that there was not total national dedication
  4. Expand the Confederate coalition.
    Didn't really work in the Border States
    Wouldn't work elsewhere
  5. Emancipate the slaves.
forest-whitaker-eye.jpg


So naturally the least worst option is to somehow capture Washington at a point where it could both be captured and where its capture wouldn't just be viewed as a speedbump
 
I have been thinking about this a little bit.

I have always been of the opinion that the CSA's biggest mistake was to not concentrate their strength enough in Virginia. They should have weakened Middle Tennessee and Jackson, Mississippi in the Spring of 1863 and bolstered Lee's strength by 30,000 more men under Beauregard or Longstreet. Lee had talked to Davis about prior to embarking on the 2nd invasion about bringing Beauregard up from Charleston with a force to apply direct pressure on Washington by the usual route thru Manassas while he tramped around PA. Imagine if Meade had been forced to leave 2 corps in Northern VA to block Beauregard and then facing Lee in PA with something close to even numbers or less.
One major problem with concentrating troops in Virginia is the same concern
That Davis had when Lee,asked for more troops just prior to invading Pennsylvania. Namely that Union troops could be sent to New Bern, North Carolina and then invade Virginia from the South and disrupt vital rail road lines transporting food from North Carolina to Virginia. That's a tough conundrum to solve for the Confederacy.
Leftyhunter
 
Explanation of the choices:
1. Mainly in the early months of the war, the Confederates had an opportunity to isolate Washington, D.C. and seize it. The domestic and international consequences should have been enough to end the war successfully for the Confederates.
2. This is the strategy in which the Confederacy attempted to last longer and endure greater suffering than the people of the United States. This would lead to a political change in the United States and an armistice.
3. If the Confederacy fought at sea and on land with enough courage and skill, they could achieve international recognition based on national dedication. This is sort of the Gary Gallagher, Robert E. Lee, Ralphie Semmes strategy.
4. The Cotton 7, Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina had a population of about 4 million with about 1.5 million of that being enslaved. Should they have taken any action that would expand the coalition, regardless of possible negative consequences?
5. Should they have freed the slaves at the outset of the war?

Not all the choices are logically possible.
And there are other possible strategies such as renounce secession, return to Congress and fight for the protection of slavery by political means.
Basically the Confederacy tried all of the above strategies with the exception of emancipating the slaves.
No strategy worked because
1. the leaders of the Confederacy overestimated popular support in the South,
2. Underestimated Union resolve
3. Grossly overestimated the value of King Cotton
4. Some Confederate leaders seemed to believe one Johnny Rev can beat ten Billy Yanks.
For a strategy to work it has to ; well work.
Leftyhunter
 
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(1) might have worked, there were a lot of troops already mustered in Virginia at one time (considerably greater than the number that had reached Washington). The opportunity's a fleeting one, but it's there.
(2) could also have worked by a few diferent decisions in various key battles. Things going badly wrong for the Union at Shiloh is one, the other offhand is the Seven Days going wrong as that could have led to the capture of the entire Army of the Potomac (which would put the Union in the East in a strategically very perilous position).
And (3) could have worked if the French had had the British assuring them they wouldn't mind if the French got involved.

The thing which came closest to securing Confederate independence, however, is the actions of one Wilkes...
 
(1) might have worked, there were a lot of troops already mustered in Virginia at one time (considerably greater than the number that had reached Washington). The opportunity's a fleeting one, but it's there.
(2) could also have worked by a few diferent decisions in various key battles. Things going badly wrong for the Union at Shiloh is one, the other offhand is the Seven Days going wrong as that could have led to the capture of the entire Army of the Potomac (which would put the Union in the East in a strategically very perilous position).
And (3) could have worked if the French had had the British assuring them they wouldn't mind if the French got involved.

The thing which came closest to securing Confederate independence, however, is the actions of one Wilkes...
On point One a lot of what if's. General Beauagard would of had to quickly reassemble his troops not easy to do after a major battle. Then he has to make sure they have enough food and ammo. Even if the Confederate forces somehow manage to take Washington DC that does not mean the war is over. More Union troops could arrive. More Union men might want to join the Union Army although they would have scant training. Loosing one's capitol does not mean ones side will have such a loss of morale that they will surrender or concede to secession.
2. As a naval writer pointed out in the naval forum things certainly went wrong at Shiloh but the Union Ironclads came to the rescue in a big way. The Confederate navy was not present . So maybe the answer is no the Confederacy could not win at Shiloh . general Porter Alexander did make the argument that Lee could of bagged the A o P during the Seven Days campaign. Maybe yes maybe no but Lee did not do so. Every war had pivotal battles that could go the other way but they only go one way.
French intervention is proplomatic for the French.
a. They don't have enough men to even fight the poorly armed Mexican anti-colonial resistance. b.The French have to resort to hiring their own Mexican local forces.
c. Unknown if the French people after fighting in the Crimean War were eager to fight to protect a pro slave rebellion.
Leftyhunter
 
(1) might have worked, there were a lot of troops already mustered in Virginia at one time (considerably greater than the number that had reached Washington). The opportunity's a fleeting one, but it's there.
(2) could also have worked by a few diferent decisions in various key battles. Things going badly wrong for the Union at Shiloh is one, the other offhand is the Seven Days going wrong as that could have led to the capture of the entire Army of the Potomac (which would put the Union in the East in a strategically very perilous position).
And (3) could have worked if the French had had the British assuring them they wouldn't mind if the French got involved.

The thing which came closest to securing Confederate independence, however, is the actions of one Wilkes...
How did the assassination of Lincoln by John Wilkes Booth almost guarantee Confederate independence?
Lwftyhunter
 
On point One a lot of what if's. General Beauagard would of had to quickly reassemble his troops not easy to do after a major battle.
I meant later in 1861, not straight after Bull Run. (It's actually mid September, when the CSA had about 130K troops total in Virginia - if they concentrated the lot for a decisive strike it could be a winner, the Union buildup lagged the Confederate one.)

So maybe the answer is no the Confederacy could not win at Shiloh
It's not beyond the bounds of possibility, IMO. It's not likely, maybe, but impossible it is not.


Even if the Confederate forces somehow manage to take Washington DC that does not mean the war is over. More Union troops could arrive. More Union men might want to join the Union Army although they would have scant training. Loosing one's capitol does not mean ones side will have such a loss of morale that they will surrender or concede to secession.
Losing DC is a major problem for the Union, though, as it means they no longer have a foothold south of the Potomac and have to mount a major crossing of it. Among other things.

French intervention is proplomatic for the French.
Not if it's mostly naval. Just crippling the Union blockade is an enormous boon for the Confederacy, and indeed without Union sealane control taking Richmond is basically impossible.


My bad. Although how close we were to a war because of the Trent Affair has been the subject of at least a few threads.
Assuming you believe the British when they said "this or war" meant it - and they'd sent conditional private war orders to their commanders, so they almost certainly did - then peace/war at Trent turns on the decision of one man, Abraham Lincoln. Historically it took about three days of constant argument to turn him away from the path that would have rejected the ultimatum.
 
I meant later in 1861, not straight after Bull Run. (It's actually mid September, when the CSA had about 130K troops total in Virginia - if they concentrated the lot for a decisive strike it could be a winner, the Union buildup lagged the Confederate one.)


It's not beyond the bounds of possibility, IMO. It's not likely, maybe, but impossible it is not.



Losing DC is a major problem for the Union, though, as it means they no longer have a foothold south of the Potomac and have to mount a major crossing of it. Among other things.


Not if it's mostly naval. Just crippling the Union blockade is an enormous boon for the Confederacy, and indeed without Union sealane control taking Richmond is basically impossible.



Assuming you believe the British when they said "this or war" meant it - and they'd sent conditional private war orders to their commanders, so they almost certainly did - then peace/war at Trent turns on the decision of one man, Abraham Lincoln. Historically it took about three days of constant argument to turn him away from the path that would have rejected the ultimatum.
Good points about the Trent Affair. I didn't know Lincoln was willing at least intialy to go to war with Great Britain .
I am not an expert on mid 19th century France. Off hand going to war with the United States on a risk vs benefit reward would show France had more to loose then gain .
Leftyhunter
 
I am not an expert on mid 19th century France. Off hand going to war with the United States on a risk vs benefit reward would show France had more to loose then gain .
Not really, at least not short term. Historically what held back Napoleon III (never exactly a long term thinker!) from getting involved on at least one occasion was that the British indicated they would object.

The Union has essentially no way to harm France and France has a lot to gain, at least from Napoleon III's PoV. They get prestige, a freer hand in Mexico (which doesn't use any of the same resources as this intervention would if kept naval) and of course they also get cotton (which was a major thing, though not enough to provoke war by itself).

If the French also made a comparatively small landing, they could also totally turn the war around. FWIW I think the most devastating time for a French intervention to show up would be one of these two options:

1) Last week of June 1862. This would essentially turn the Seven Days into the "Surrender of the Army of the Potomac", as with French squadrons off Fort Monroe in force McClellan's army has no supply line whatsoever. Combine this with a naval squadron turning up off New Orleans and off NC, and you can end up forcing the surrender of (checks ORs)

14,772 Army of the Gulf
16,296 Middle department
15,782 Dept. of North Carolina
21,630 Dept. of the South
113,895 Army of the Potomac

About 180,000 (Aggregate Present) out of an army only 500,000 strong by the same measure (actually more because the Seven Days casualties haven't happened). It's a gutpunch for the Union.


2) Late 1864.

Grant and Sherman's army both relied on sea supply at this point, so you could force the surrender of both by the same measure. With both of them and Butler, that's over 260,000 AP out of 600,000 and is thus an even larger fraction.
 
Not really, at least not short term. Historically what held back Napoleon III (never exactly a long term thinker!) from getting involved on at least one occasion was that the British indicated they would object.

The Union has essentially no way to harm France and France has a lot to gain, at least from Napoleon III's PoV. They get prestige, a freer hand in Mexico (which doesn't use any of the same resources as this intervention would if kept naval) and of course they also get cotton (which was a major thing, though not enough to provoke war by itself).

If the French also made a comparatively small landing, they could also totally turn the war around. FWIW I think the most devastating time for a French intervention to show up would be one of these two options:

1) Last week of June 1862. This would essentially turn the Seven Days into the "Surrender of the Army of the Potomac", as with French squadrons off Fort Monroe in force McClellan's army has no supply line whatsoever. Combine this with a naval squadron turning up off New Orleans and off NC, and you can end up forcing the surrender of (checks ORs)

14,772 Army of the Gulf
16,296 Middle department
15,782 Dept. of North Carolina
21,630 Dept. of the South
113,895 Army of the Potomac

About 180,000 (Aggregate Present) out of an army only 500,000 strong by the same measure (actually more because the Seven Days casualties haven't happened). It's a gutpunch for the Union.


2) Late 1864.

Grant and Sherman's army both relied on sea supply at this point, so you could force the surrender of both by the same measure. With both of them and Butler, that's over 260,000 AP out of 600,000 and is thus an even larger fraction.
An interesting what if. On the other hand the Union Navy certainly could attack French shipping. The Union could sieze French Islands in the Carribean. The Union could arm the Mexican forces under Benito Juarez.
Also would a French war with the United States have popular support with the majority of the French population?
That is the inherent problem with discussing hypothetical question ; lot of more hypothetical questions.
Leftyhunter
 
An interesting what if. On the other hand the Union Navy certainly could attack French shipping.
The Union Navy's not in the same size league as the French navy, which is only remotely rivalled by the RN. The French had over thirty screw battleships, the US had none.

The Union could sieze French Islands in the Carribean.
Not for very long, see point about navy. And, of course, if the Union's just lost nearly half their entire army they're not likely to have much deployable manpower - they're likely to be busy either scrambling to redistribute forces from the West (if this happens around the Seven Days, Lee has an army every bit as big as the one which beat Pope and the Union has... well, Pope's army from Bull Run, only substantially smaller, and no strategic depth because the new levies aren't remotely even mustered) or scrambling even worse (if this happens late 1864, the two important Union field armies are simply gone).

The Union could arm the Mexican forces under Benito Juarez.
Not very easily. The weapons would need to be taken west along a wagon train to California, then shipped hundreds of miles south... it's not exactly a very easy route. (Any other route either runs into the CSA or the French navy.)

Also would a French war with the United States have popular support with the majority of the French population?
It wouldn't need it. Napoleon III was something of an autocrat in practice, and the only people actually suffering in any sense would be the Navy. (Witness how popular support for the Mexican adventure didn't really matter one way or the other.)
That being said, alleviating the famine du coton would win Napoleon III a fair amount of support.


By doing all these things mentioned, the Union can annoy the French at considerable cost. By doing the things I've mentioned
 
The Union Navy's not in the same size league as the French navy, which is only remotely rivalled by the RN. The French had over thirty screw battleships, the US had none.


Not for very long, see point about navy. And, of course, if the Union's just lost nearly half their entire army they're not likely to have much deployable manpower - they're likely to be busy either scrambling to redistribute forces from the West (if this happens around the Seven Days, Lee has an army every bit as big as the one which beat Pope and the Union has... well, Pope's army from Bull Run, only substantially smaller, and no strategic depth because the new levies aren't remotely even mustered) or scrambling even worse (if this happens late 1864, the two important Union field armies are simply gone).


Not very easily. The weapons would need to be taken west along a wagon train to California, then shipped hundreds of miles south... it's not exactly a very easy route. (Any other route either runs into the CSA or the French navy.)


It wouldn't need it. Napoleon III was something of an autocrat in practice, and the only people actually suffering in any sense would be the Navy. (Witness how popular support for the Mexican adventure didn't really matter one way or the other.)
That being said, alleviating the famine du coton would win Napoleon III a fair amount of support.


By doing all these things mentioned, the Union can annoy the French at considerable cost. By doing the things I've mentioned
Hypothetically true either Great Britain or France could of militarily intervened and insured independence for the Confederacy. Yet they did not do so. Instead they sold weapons to both sides and the British ( see my thread " Did the Union recruit overseas?") allowed the Union Army to recruit men on British soil.
In fact the American Civil War is unique in that many Civil wars do involve direct foreign involvement but not the American Civil War.
Therefore there were other factors such has popular support that prevented direct foreign involvement in the American Civil War.
Leftyhunter
 
In fact the American Civil War is unique in that many Civil wars do involve direct foreign involvement but not the American Civil War.
At the time, it wasn't all that common. The Mexican Civil War didn't see foreign intervention, nor did the Taiping Rebellion, the Boshin War and so on. The ACW is not unique on these grounds.

Therefore there were other factors such has popular support that prevented direct foreign involvement in the American Civil War.
Mainly that they didn't want to, or rather the British didn't want to and the French conformed to this.

the British ( see my thread " Did the Union recruit overseas?") allowed the Union Army to recruit men on British soil.
Technically this is more "grudgingly tolerated", and the British had plenty of protests over crimping.
 
At the time, it wasn't all that common. The Mexican Civil War didn't see foreign intervention, nor did the Taiping Rebellion, the Boshin War and so on. The ACW is not unique on these grounds.


Mainly that they didn't want to, or rather the British didn't want to and the French conformed to this.


Technically this is more "grudgingly tolerated", and the British had plenty of protests over crimping.
Actually the Mexican Civil War had French troops and the first Foreign Legionarires. Shortly after the Civil War the Johnson Administration made it quite clear that the French needed to go back home. Do no the Mexican Civil War of the mid 19th century had plenty of foreign involvement.
Leftyhunter
 

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