What Would Have Resulted From Approving The Lecompton Constitution?

Joined
Apr 30, 2012
Location
Jupiter, FL
I think it's a settled issue that the Lecompton Constitution was illegitimate, due to many voting issues.

But Buchanan and the South tried to throw their weight behind it and get it approved by Congress anyway. They came close enough I think it's reasonable to imagine a scenario where it did get passed, if barely. Perhaps someone other than John Geary is territorial governor and enthusiastically endorsed Lecompton. Let's assume that Buchanan is still president and Stephen Douglas still opposed Lecompton, albeit unsuccessfully in this scenario.

What effect would the admission of Kansas as a slave state in 1857, under the Lecompton Constitution, have on events?

Presumably this helps the Republicans and hurts Northern Democrats.

Does this ruin Douglas political career? Does Lincoln get elected Senator in 1858?

Does Bleeding Kansas get even bloodied?

But presumably this still doesn't bring many slaves or slaveowners into Kansas, nor does Kansas secede in 1861. The American Civil War still breaks out in response to a Republican presidential victory in 1860, but perhaps with Seward as the candidate instead of Lincoln?
 

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