What If: Andrew Jackson Elected 1824

[Josh The Lighthouse Guy]

William Crawford nearly died from a pair of strokes in 1824, but this was not widely known at the time. He remained on ballots and finished third in electoral votes.

Let's assume Crawford dies or formally drops out (as he should have). His popular votes go to Jackson, at least the 34 from VA and GA. Andrew Jackson wins the majority of popular and electoral votes. There is no "Corrupt Bargain" nor Adams II presidency. There is likely also no Tariff of Abominations.

Calhoun is still Jackson's VP. The Eaton Affair doesn't happen, at least not until Jackson is reelected im 1828. Jackson's wife is alive, at least for his first term. Clay, Webster, and probably Adams are still the nucleus of an anti-Jackson party.

Jackson probably faces Clay in 1828, and probably gets reelected.

Does Calhoun still split with Jackson or does he run for president in 1832? Does Van Buren still come to prominence and the presidency?

How does all this alter the long road to civil war?

 

[major bill]

Some interesting question Sadly I am not real good with 1824-1832 politics. How certain are we that VA and GA would have went for Jackson?

 

[Josh The Lighthouse Guy]

Some interesting question Sadly I am not real good with 1824-1832 politics. How certain are we that VA and GA would have went for Jackson?

Crawford later supported Jackson and his views were closer to Jackson than Clay or Adams. Georgia only went Crawford because it was his home state. Adams and Clay combined for only about 25% of the vote in Virginia. (VA had introduced the popular vote, but GA had not yet.)

Also, for purposes off this thought experiment, we need Jackson to win and this is the most plausible way to get there.

 

[Andy Cardinal]

All speculation of course, but maybe Henry Clay wins the presidency in 1832, in which case there may well have been a tariff but a decade later. I would think Clay vs. Calhoun in 1832. Clays chamces better vs. Calhoun than Jackson, and there's no corrupt bargain to hurt him.

If all this happens I wonder if there's a Polk presidency? And if not, is Texas annexed? And if it's not, is there a Mexican War?

 

[Josh The Lighthouse Guy]

If all this happens I wonder if there's a Polk presidency? And if not, is Texas annexed? And if it's not, is there a Mexican War?

Polk was only ever nominated as a compromise candidate. It's unlikely that situation arises again.

Someone is going to annex Texas sooner or later. Seems inevitable. But the catalyst for the Mexican War might become California instead of Texas. The gold is there and when its found there will be a rush, even if it's still part of Mexico. Mexico wont be happy about that because they'll see California turning into other Texas. If there's a war Texas likely joins in with the USA and is annexed as part of the peace settlement.

Alternatively, especially if Santa Ana is out of office and if a Whig is in the White House, Mexico and the US strike a deal where northern California, Nevada, and Utah are sold to the US but not SoCal and AZ-NM.

 

[Seduzal]

Thanks for sharing this interesting article.