Did you ask a question? Oh, I see. No question mark. I took it as a rhetorical device.
Lee DID historically cross the Potomac at the head of about 76,000 effectives. Of course, the Lost Cause desperately tried to deny it and minimise numbers, as they've done for other campaigns. You are repeating their attempts to explain away Lee's defeat.
To be clear four different methodologies derived this strength thus:
2a. A Survey of the Confederate Survey Records
In the early 1990's, the late Prof. Joseph Harsh had a PhD student trawl the CSR's to find the strength of Lee's army in early September. The masters dissertation has never been published, but Harsh extensively used it in his Maryland Campaign trilogy. The headline summary (by division) is given in table 24 in
Sounding the Shallows and is
75,528 PFD. It appears this may be PFD as the rebels at the time defined it, so excluding extra-duty men etc. Although Allen (the student) could only find actual strength data for 25% of the companies in the army, he was able to estimate the rest from older data, or post-Antietam data combined with casualty counts.
2b. Add forward
Starting from the last available returns for formations, we can deduct casualties at 2nd Bull Run and derive an estimate.
Livermore did this and estimated 77,135 before 2nd BR. However, his estimate is flawed in places. Starting with the
20th July return, Livermore included Rhett's artillery, which was the garrison artillery of Richmond, and Wise's Brigade, which was left in the garrison. He failed to give numbers for several units that served in Maryland. These include Lawton's Brigade (2,041 on 13th August), Drayton's Brigade and Evans' Brigade (joined 28th July with,
according to Allen, 4,600), the 5th and 8th Florida (1,448 according to a different Allen), and the 2nd Virginia (273).
Harsh found 2,200 North Carolina recruits joined just before they left Richmond (Taken and the Flood, fn 76 to chapter 1).
Taking the forces left at Richmond at 3,300 (1,300 for Wise and 2,000 for Rhett), these total 84,397 before 2nd Bull Run, and deducting casualties gives
76,126 PFD.
2c. Add back
Starting from the returns after Antietam, the casualties can be added back to make an estimate. The first complete return after Antietam is 10th October, and Gene Thorpe has
done this calculation, finding
77,769 PFD.
2d. Observations of the forces
Some people counted the forces they say. Gene Thorpe has done a wonderful job
collating what he could find. Most observations were around Frederick, which the rebel army marched through. It should be noted that the cavalry, Walker's division and G.B. Anderson's brigade of D.H. Hill's division didn't march through Frederick.
The most commonly quoted observation is that of Dr. Steiner. In his
diary for the 10th September he noted that the column that passed through that day took 16 hours to pass his house, and was about 64,000 men, including several thousand "negros" mixed in with the regiments. These latter would not usually be included on the returns. He noted that some rebel regiments were as weak as 150 men, and that none were more than 500. This latter point is not quite true, as a few were over 500, such as the recruit swollen 1,000 man 5th North Carolina The average regiment of 10 coys was 411 strong. The next day he watched the 8,000 men of D.H. Hill's division (minus G.B. Anderson) march through (after the wagon train one believes). The 69,000-70,000 men (exc/ the non-whites who would not be counted as troops) is consistent with the calculations above, after estimating the cavalry and 3 infantry brigades that didn't pass through.
These are PFD numbers, and the actual moving column is in fact larger. As David Powell
notes here, the actual number of men moving was probably between 90,000 and 100,000. Thus McClellan's estimates perhaps aren't that fanciful. Of course, it appears that the rebels suffered a huge dose of straggling...
As Tidball wrote in his Artillery Service in the War of the Rebellion:
"Lee had present on the field two corps of nine divisions comprising 40 brigades of 185 regiments of infantry. McClellan had present six corps of 15 divisions comprising 44 brigades of 186 regiments of infantry.
The former [Lee] was slightly superior to the latter in cavalry, but as there was no opportunity for this arm on the field , it did not count on either side. The horse batteries of both sides were, however, actively engaged.
While the infantry of the two opposing armies was almost identical in point of numbers, McClellan was greatly superior in artillery. Lee had on the field 73 batteries of 288 guns; McClellan had 55 batteries of 322 guns, a difference in favor of the latter of 34 pieces. But this disparity was more than offset for by Lee's superiority of organization...."
Of course, Tidball assumes that all regiments are equal. Whilst a few of Lee's NC regiments were very full (see the 5th NC which entered Maryland a full regiment of 1,000), most were pretty empty. Then again, so were the Federal regiments, however, the Federals had quite a few full new regiments, so they're likely fuller on average.
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Bringing the