Opinion Polls

[Desolu64]

During the Civil War period, there were no public opinion polls, at least in the modern sense. It makes me wonder: what would Lincoln and Davis's approval ratings have been if there were? How would they have fluctuated over the course of the war? And how would they have compared to those of U.S. presidents from FDR onward (the period in which modern polls have existed)?

 

[John Winn]

I don't think one could really get statistically valid polls in those times. There was no mass media and newspapers, where they existed, were strongly party-affiliated (and many got paid off for being such). So, those outside cities (most people) wouldn't have had much info other than word of mouth and those in cities would have mostly just read the propaganda of their chosen party. Also, there were regional differences (e.g. eastern Tennessee). That said, I certainly do think people had opinions and my guess would be that both presidents would have had far less support later in the war than earlier simply due to the costs to the average citizen of continued warfare. How to measure such, though, is another thing.

 

[Belfoured]

I don't think one could really get statistically valid polls in those times. There was no mass media and newspapers, where they existed, were strongly party-affiliated (and many got paid off for being such). So, those outside cities (most people) wouldn't have had much info other than word of mouth and those in cities would have mostly just read the propaganda of their chosen party. Also, there were regional differences (e.g. eastern Tennessee). That said, I certainly do think people had opinions and my guess would be that both presidents would have had far less support later in the war than earlier simply due to the costs to the average citizen of continued warfare. How to measure such, though, is another thing.

Regarding your last point I think you're right. One example is 1944. Even though the US/Allies clearly were headed to victory ("Home Alive in '45!") and FRD still win handily, it was the closest of his four elections.

 

[JOHN42768]

Opinion polls are just that, opinions. At any given time, place, demographics or way the question is configured can produce the results the taker is looking to obtain. I place no credence in any poll. IMHO

 

[Rank and File]

In modern times, with all of the emphasis on polling, they still get it wrong probably half the time. What are the odds it would have been better during the ACW?

 

[huskerblitz]

In modern times, with all of the emphasis on polling, they still get it wrong probably half the time. What are the odds it would have been better during the ACW?

It would have been about the same as today, 60-75% accurate. One has to understand how polls work. They are nuanced...a snapshot in time by a small group of people. As situations change, events become more distant, and the polling group changes, so do the polls.