Lincoln Lincoln miscalculation......

[W. Richardson]

Up until the war began and even for awhile after, Lincoln felt the South would not fight........Why was this ?
and not only not fight but rejoin the Union. Some of this was, I believe, his over confidence in the Union sentiment in the Southern states.

Respectfully,

William

 

[whitworth]

Wars are usually never like they are at the end, as they are at the beginning. At the beginning, wars are never usually lost. With the Civil War, after 150 years, some are still at the beginning.

 

[matthew mckeon]

I would agree with Richardson. Lincoln's policy before Sumter was play it cool, and "hope the fever passes" with overestimated the Unionist sentiment in the Gulf states.

 

[JeffBrooks]

Both sides made serious miscalculations regarding the feelings of the people on the other side. Lincoln badly overestimated Unionist sentiment in the Confederacy, at least early in the war. Likewise, the Confederates badly overestimated pro-Confederate sentiment in Kentucky and Maryland and believed that political opposition to Lincoln by the Democrats in Indiana, Illinois and other states indicated that large segments of the population there were pro-Confederate.

When one believes that their cause is right and just, it's easy to be deluded into believed that those who oppose you have little support. Since both sides in the Civil War believed that their cause was right and just, both sides were deluded about the other.

 

[brass napoleon]

Lincoln believed there was strong Unionist sentiment in the South largely because the secessionist leaders believed there was strong Unionist sentiment in the South. And in fact, they were both right, as explained by historian David M. Potter:

"Furthermore, secession was not basically desired even by a majority in the lower South, and the secessionists succeeded less because of the intrinsic popularity of their program than because of the extreme skill with which they utilized an emergency psychology, the promptness by which they invoked unilateral action by individual states, and the firmness with which they refused to submit the question of secession to popular referenda."

Source: David M. Potter, Lincoln and his Party in the Secession Crisis, p. 208

Whether or not Lincoln OVER-estimated Unionist sentiment is questionable, IMO. His policy was to make no overt acts and wait it out. That policy was working. Jefferson Davis blinked first by firing on Fort Sumter, and he did that to overcome the Unionist sentiment in the upper South states that had kept them from joining the Confederacy, and the Unionist sentiment in the lower South states that was threatening to unhinge his government.

 

[UKMarkw]

All wars have miscalculations, that's why they end up as wars

 

[wilber6150]

Up until the war began and even for awhile after, Lincoln felt the South would not fight........Why was this ?
and not only not fight but rejoin the Union. Some of this was, I believe, his over confidence in the Union sentiment in the Southern states.

Respectfully,

William

I'm not sure where Lincoln ever said that the South would not fight. All his actions in my opinion seemed to show that he thought hostilities could commence at any time with one wrong move..He seemed to be walking on egg shells trying to keep the upper South in the Union and trying not to antaganize the already seceeded states.. He did certainly overestimate the Union influence in the seceeded states and thought that this influence could bring the states back in before April of 61.. But by April he certainly knew that Southeners were ready to start a war..

 

[CSA Today]

Lincoln believed there was strong Unionist sentiment in the South largely because the secessionist leaders believed there was strong Unionist sentiment in the South. And in fact, they were both right, as explained by historian David M. Potter:



Whether or not Lincoln OVER-estimated Unionist sentiment is questionable, IMO. His policy was to make no overt acts and wait it out. That policy was working. Jefferson Davis blinked first by firing on Fort Sumter, and he did that to overcome the Unionist sentiment in the upper South states that had kept them from joining the Confederacy, and the Unionist sentiment in the lower South states that was threatening to unhinge his government.

Let's see now, Davis, by firing on Fort Sumter, was going to overcome union sentiment in the upper South by forcing them to make a choice between Lincoln's union and the new Confederacy. Lincoln found out quickly enough the choice most of the supposedly unionists made. Three of the four top contributors of Confederate were from the upper South – Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

And Union sentiment was so strong in the lower South that it threatened to "unhinge" the Davis government unless the president did something real quick like about federal occupation of coastal Southern forts. Apparently the great fear was these "unionists" were going to push to rejoin Lincoln's union unless Davis opened fire on Lincoln's troops at Fort Sumter.

It is doubtful that so shrewd a politician as Lincoln would be that naive, especially after getting reports from spies about the real situation in the Confederate States, but if a case is made that he was, that has to be mother of all miscalculations.

 

[brass napoleon]

Let's see now, Davis, by firing on Fort Sumter, was going to overcome union sentiment in the upper South by forcing them to make a choice between Lincoln's union and the new Confederacy. Lincoln found out quickly enough the choice most of the supposedly unionists made. Three of the four top contributors of Confederate were from the upper South – Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

And Union sentiment was so strong in the lower South that it threatened to "unhinge" the Davis government unless the president did something real quick like about federal occupation of coastal Southern forts. Apparently the great fear was these "unionists" were going to push to rejoin Lincoln's union unless Davis opened fire on Lincoln's troops at Fort Sumter.

That is indeed exactly what the fear was, as quotes from Southern political leaders and newspapers show (whether you want to hear them or not). But war changes everything. Suddenly people who were ambivalent have to rally around their homes and their families. Jefferson Davis knew that and that's what he was counting on.

It is doubtful that so shrewd a politician as Lincoln would be that naive, especially after getting reports from spies about the real situation in the Confederate States, but if a case is made that he was, that has to be mother of all miscalculations.

What "mother of all miscalculations" did Lincoln make? In what way was he naive? How could he have handled things differently even if he had magic powers to look deep into the heart of every Southerner and saw a preponderance of secession?

 

[John Hartwell]

All wars are the result of miscalculation.

 

[W. Richardson]

That is indeed exactly what the fear was, as quotes from Southern political leaders and newspapers show (whether you want to hear them or not). But war changes everything. Suddenly people who were ambivalent have to rally around their homes and their families. Jefferson Davis knew that and that's what he was counting on.

Isn't that what Lincoln was needing as well ? Didn't he want/need the South to be the aggressor ? To help propel those who were ambivalent in the North into a patriotic uproar ?

[/quote]What "mother of all miscalculations" did Lincoln make? In what way was he naive? How could he have handled things differently even if he had magic powers to look deep into the heart of every Southerner and saw a preponderance of secession?[/quote]

Well for one, for the longest of time he expected unionism to rise up and restore the Union. Second, He either expected the South not to fire on his relief effort to Sumter (Miscalculation) or he knew they had to fire.....and his war came. He knew they had to do one or the other. IMO.....He wanted them to fire, and there is possibly some truth to this in his letter to, IIRC Fox. I know as a Pro-Northerner you do not except that, and that is acceptable. Did the Southern Fire-Eaters want war ? Did Jefferson Davis want war ? They wanted Independence.....If by not peacefully leaving the Union, which is what they tried to do at first, then yes they wanted war.

However I can see your point of the matter, I suppose it depends on which side of the fence we are on.

Respectfully,

William

 

[Carronade]

It might be better put that Lincoln hoped for a peaceful restoration of the Union, but he was acutely aware of the possibility of war. Moreover, he knew that an outbreak of war would likely lead many of the border states to join the secessionists; that was a telling argument against precipitate action.

Strictly speaking, neither side 'wanted' war, but they each had something they did want - Union or independence - which was incompatible with the other and unamenable to compromise.

 

[brass napoleon]

Isn't that what Lincoln was needing as well ? Didn't he want/need the South to be the aggressor ? To help propel those who were ambivalent in the North into a patriotic uproar ?

If there was to be a war, he certainly intended to let the South be the aggressor. But I haven't seen any evidence that he wanted a war. All the evidence I've seen is that he tried to avoid a war, short of cowardice or treason or permitting the expansion of slavery. He had every reason to try to avoid a war.

Well for one, for the longest of time he expected unionism to rise up and restore the Union.

"For the longest time"? He was only in office 6 weeks before the Confederates fired on Fort Sumter. We have no idea whether unionism would have risen up over "the longest time" because he wasn't given "the longest time". And that's the only reasonable explanation as to why the Confederates didn't give him "the longest time" in the first place.

Second, He either expected the South not to fire on his relief effort to Sumter (Miscalculation) or he knew they had to fire.....and his war came. He knew they had to do one or the other. IMO.....He wanted them to fire, and there is possibly some truth to this in his letter to, IIRC Fox. I know as a Pro-Northerner you do not except that, and that is acceptable. Did the Southern Fire-Eaters want war ? Did Jefferson Davis want war ? They wanted Independence.....If by not peacefully leaving the Union, which is what they tried to do at first, then yes they wanted war.

However I can see your point of the matter, I suppose it depends on which side of the fence we are on.

Respectfully,

William

Well no, it has nothing to do with what side of the fence we are on. It has to do with the facts. In high school, I was taught exactly what you've described above, that Lincoln needed a war and used the Fox expedition to dupe Jefferson Davis into firing the first shot. I believed it then, and I didn't lose any sleep over it. I have since learned that the evidence doesn't support that theory. I'm not losing any sleep over that either.

 

[JCM6395]

Lincoln had good reason to believe the South would come back if given time. There was a good chunk of southerners that wanted to remain in the Union. They just weren't in positions of power in their states. Tennessee sent a hell of a lot of men into the ranks of the Union Army. Threats of violence against their person or businesses kept a lot of Unionists mum or at home on Secession voting. Despite this there is some questions on if the actual Georgia vote wasn't much, much closer than the official released tally. The vote happened in January and wasn't officially released until April of that year. Kind of odd to sit on that unless it didn't go your way. Before Sumter secession votes in Tennessee, and Virginia were defeated. So Davis had to have a war to unite the South in a rally around the flag thing.

 

[CSA Today]

That is indeed exactly what the fear was, as quotes from Southern political leaders and newspapers show (whether you want to hear them or not). But war changes everything. Suddenly people who were ambivalent have to rally around their homes and their families. Jefferson Davis knew that and that's what he was counting on.



What "mother of all miscalculations" did Lincoln make? In what way was he naive? How could he have handled things differently even if he had magic powers to look deep into the heart of every Southerner and saw a preponderance of secession?

In the end, whatever delusion Lincoln might have had, he soon came to rely more on information gained from spies and informers in the South than Southern politicians and newspapers—most of whom were pushing for the government to take immediate and decisive action against the federal occupied Southern forts. Then too, there is a case to make that ambivalence isn't quite the same thing as stout heated unionism and any threat that it might cause a mad dash back into the old union if Davis didn't soon fire on Fort Sumter.

 

[brass napoleon]

Lincoln had good reason to believe the South would come back if given time. There was a good chunk of southerners that wanted to remain in the Union. They just weren't in positions of power in their states. Tennessee sent a hell of a lot of men into the ranks of the Union Army. Threats of violence against their person or businesses kept a lot of Unionists mum or at home on Secession voting. Despite this there is some questions on if the actual Georgia vote wasn't much, much closer than the official released tally. The vote happened in January and wasn't officially released until April of that year. Kind of odd to sit on that unless it didn't go your way. Before Sumter secession votes in Tennessee, and Virginia were defeated. So Davis had to have a war to unite the South in a rally around the flag thing.

Indeed. In regards to the Georgia vote, the Georgia Historical Society has since determined that Governor Joe Brown, when he finally did get around to releasing the numbers, fudged them. The Georgia Historical Society published an exhaustive study that indeed showed the vote to be very close, and in fact showed the secessionists losing by a slim majority. You can see a description of it here:

http://www.aboutnorthgeorgia.com/ang/Secession!

 

[brass napoleon]

In the end, whatever delusion Lincoln might have had, he soon came to rely more on information gained from spies and informers in the South than Southern politicians and newspapers—most of whom were pushing for the government to take immediate and decisive action against the federal occupied Southern forts. Then too, there is a case to make that ambivalence isn't quite the same thing as stout heated unionism and any threat that it might cause a mad dash back into the old union if Davis didn't soon fire on Fort Sumter.

I don't think Lincoln was expecting any kind of a "mad dash" back into the Union. What he saw was a "mad dash" OUT of the Union, led by a bunch of hotheaded leaders, and he was expecting that over time cooler heads would prevail. In other words, he saw what Robert E. Lee described in a post-war interview:

[General Lee] added that they went off after political leaders in a moment of
passion and under the excitement of fancied wrongs, honestly believing that
they were entering a struggle for an inalienable right and a fundamental
principle of their political creed.

- New York Herald interview with Robert E. Lee, April 21, 1865

Source: http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/13116651

 

[CSA Today]

I don't think Lincoln was expecting any kind of a "mad dash" back into the Union. What he saw was a "mad dash" OUT of the Union, led by a bunch of hotheaded leaders, and he was expecting that over time cooler heads would prevail. In other words, he saw what Robert E. Lee described in a post-war interview:

Now that hopefully we have gotten Lincoln past influenced by "hotheaded Southern politicians and newspapers we may perhaps agree at least to this extent.

 

[wilber6150]

Now that hopefully we have gotten Lincoln past influenced by "hotheaded Southern politicians and newspapers we may perhaps agree at least to this extent.

So Southern newspapers writing to people who lived in the area were all wrong? You base this on the accounts of people reporting on the one state that was most radical and determined to leave the Union? Painting with a broad brush aren't you?

 

[Rebforever]

All wars are the result of miscalculation.

That sounds good but I doubt it.