Lee's Mega Army... Do or Die!

[5fish]

We all know that President Davis's and General Lee's strategy during the Civil War was in the end, an abject failure. We can tell that our fellow members do not think much of the static line and conservation of resource strategy to win the Civil war. It leaves us with just one last strategy to win the Civil war for Lee and the South...

The set up is by May of 1863 after his great Chancorville victory, Lee wanted to invade the North and again defeat/destroy the Union army on Northern soil. His plan was to have his army of like 70,000 move into Pennsylvania and form another army of 35,000 under General P.G.T. Beauregard which would head toward the Ohio border. In the end, Davis only approved Lee's invasion plans of the North with his one lone small army.

Let's say, Lee during one of the staff meeting discussing his invasion plans. Someone(Gordon) speaks up and points out how many times Lee has defeated and even routed the Union army but was never able to destroy it. Why? The person(Gordon) tells Lee simply the Army of Northern Virginia was not big enough and was always short about 25,000 or more men needed to destroy the Union army after defeating it. He explained, Lee to needed an army similar in size to Union army if he wants to defeat and destroy the Union army and win the war. Lee listens but said nothing.

The next day Lee agree after thinking about the young officer's words. He needed not only to defeat but destroy the Union army for total victory. He realized the war was not going well for the Confederacy resources for the army was getting harder to get and they were relying on capture Union army materials to keep his army going. He knew his health was not well after a winter cold( mild heart attack). He went to Davis and told him of his plans and told Davis he needs every available regiment brought to Richmond to create his mega army. Davis refuses at first until Lee threatens to support a coupe. Lee told Davis "it's our only hope, the mega army". Davis gave in and began to strip the Confederacy for all available regiments for Lee's mega army...

Lee's plan, he was going to take his mega army north and was going to battle the Army of the Potomac all summer until it was destroyed or his army was destroyed. It was going to be like the Seven Days Battle constant battling until one army was left standing... Lee's plan was simple Do or Die!

What if...
In June 1863, Lee started moving his Mega Army of 6 Corps and a total 150,000 men North into the Alternative Books of History and Sci-Fi... To Do or Die!

 

[5fish]

See it's mind blowing, Lee with 150,000 men at his command. I wonder who would be his 3 other Corps commander?

What Lee would have done at Gettysburg with 80,000 more men? Pickett's charge would have been a foot note about the Battle...

 

[Saphroneth]

Okay, so first of all there are some fairly major problems with the idea - one of them is that to get an army of 150,000 by Confederate measures (Effectives) you need to move a huge number of troops into place. Lee's force was a little over 75,000 effectives, and to get that up to 150,000 means moving very roughly one in two Confederate soldiers from every other command available (Vicksburg is under siege and the Trans-Mississippi is inaccessible) into the Army of Northern Virginia. Simply moving that many troops (over 40,000 from the West) will strain Confederate rail capacity, and moving the supplies and wagons to feed them will be a major undertaking; it may not be possible, in fact.

The second problem is that once this is actually done it means the Confederate war effort on other fronts basically collapses. Bragg now has about 25,000 men left, Johnston about 15,000 men left, and that force can't last long against a Union offensive in the West.

The third problem is that it may be impossible for such a large army to operate by forage. This was what gave Union commanders with large armies (cf. Grant) headaches, and meant he was limited to flank movements between viable supply points instead of moving truly independently.

Now, with that out of the way, I should note that if such a large invasion force could be assembled without major Union counter-moves, it could absolutely defeat the Army of the Potomac. But I did want to point out a problem:

It was going to be like the Seven Days Battle constant battling until one army was left standing...

This is the problem. The Seven Days were not an attempt by Lee to pound the Army of the Potomac into the ground, they were an attempt by Lee to cut off the Army of the Potomac from their supply base and force them into either retreat back down towards Fort Monroe or surrender. He was fighting in a manoeuverist manner.


Frankly if you want a different decision in the Gettysburg campaign then you don't need to nearly double the size of Lee's army - it was a much more close run thing than that implies. An extra corps or better coordination of the existing ones would work.

 

[Saphroneth]

What Lee would have done at Gettysburg with 80,000 more men? Pickett's charge would have been a foot note about the Battle...

Probably he would have mounted a full echelon attack and overwhelmed Howard's Cowards at the line hinge (they're the weakest point of the line, and Lee's Day 2 attacks were intended to focus the main attack on them) or just spread his flanks wider until he could cut one or both of the roads the Union army had for communication.

It's important to understand what Lee was trying to do to understand his operations at Gettysburg. He wasn't just launching attacks on what looked weak, he was trying to compel Meade to react - and in both cases he got the reaction he wanted, but bad luck (an unlucky casualty in his commanders on day 2, for example) meant that his actual decisive stroke hung fire.

With so many tens of thousands of extra men, Lee can spread his line much wider safely, and since historically he was already trying to turn both flanks of the Union army I could see him compelling Meade to thin his centre too much to avoid the AotP being flanked.

 

[matthew mckeon]

What if the size of Lee's army stays the same, but they have tanks? Wait a minute, no diesel fuel, so the tanks can't move....

What is the size of Lee's army stays the same, but they have P-51 Mustangs? Wait a minute, no aviation fuel, and no one knows how to fly a plane...

What is Lee's army sneaks onboard ships, sails secretly to New York City, and captures it? They will have the element of surprise.

 

[Lost Cause]

See it's mind blowing, Lee with 150,000 men at his command. I wonder who would be his 3 other Corps commander?

What Lee would have done at Gettysburg with 80,000 more men? Pickett's charge would have been a foot note about the Battle...

If Lee could look for a Hail Mary so to speak why not use his legion of Black Confederates to bring the total to 150,000 men?

Realistically, Lee or any other general would have a difficult time destroying the AOP even with 150,000 men without severely damaging his own army. Especially if Meade held the high ground. Lee would certainly desire the high ground so Meade would attack him.

Why not continue a separate advance of Beauregard's army up north to strike fear to the citizens and especially the politicians in Washington? Make the unpopular war even more so. Lincoln was up for re-election in 1864. Perhaps this would also help alleviate the besieged army at Vicksburg.

 

[Saphroneth]

Realistically, Lee or any other general would have a difficult time destroying the AOP even with 150,000 men without severely damaging his own army. Especially if Meade held the high ground. Lee would certainly desire the high ground so Meade would attack him.

But that's not even the case - Lee's echelon attack on Day 2 totally hoodwinked Meade and got him to commit his reserves early and in the wrong place. If the echelon attack had continued as planned it would have meant Howard's shaky corps being hit 2:1 from two sides.

If Lee had another 70,000 men on top of what he already had he could just do the same thing but with double troops everywhere, so he'd hit Howard's Cowards with 4:1 odds and shatter them.

 

[Lost Cause]

But that's not even the case - Lee's echelon attack on Day 2 totally hoodwinked Meade and got him to commit his reserves early and in the wrong place. If the echelon attack had continued as planned it would have meant Howard's shaky corps being hit 2:1 from two sides.

If Lee had another 70,000 men on top of what he already had he could just do the same thing but with double troops everywhere, so he'd hit Howard's Cowards with 4:1 odds and shatter them.

Perhaps, if the entire Confederate Army had arrived and was prepared on the field for coordinated attack(s) and Meade and his army were not.

Why not take the second wing and go after Washington or another area of political importance.

 

[Saphroneth]

Perhaps, if the entire Confederate Army had arrived and was prepared on the field for coordinated attack(s) and Meade and his army were not.

Er, but my first paragraph describes what actually happened. Meade and his army clearly weren't prepared for coordinated attacks, because they completely screwed up their response to Lee's echelon attack, and Meade had a perennial problem in that battle - he didn't keep a reserve to hand.
In any case, with double the troops Lee has many more options...

Why not take the second wing and go after Washington or another area of political importance.

...but this one speaks to the biggest option he has, which is to operate both wings parallel to one another and bring in whichever wing is not engaged to envelop. (If he sends one wing after Washington and the other through PA then Meade will just bring the Washington wing to battle.)

 

[5fish]

What if the size of Lee's army stays the same, but they have tanks? Wait a minute, no diesel fuel, so the tanks can't move....

What is the size of Lee's army stays the same, but they have P-51 Mustangs? Wait a minute, no aviation fuel, and no one knows how to fly a plane...

What is Lee's army sneaks onboard ships, sails secretly to New York City, and captures it? They will have the element of surprise.

You are right if we are moving the timeline but we are only expanding the size of Lee's army to where it could truly compete against the Army of the Potomac... Your poopooing of the notion has no merit...

 

[Lost Cause]

Er, but my first paragraph describes what actually happened. Meade and his army clearly weren't prepared for coordinated attacks, because they completely screwed up their response to Lee's echelon attack, and Meade had a perennial problem in that battle - he didn't keep a reserve to hand.
In any case, with double the troops Lee has many more options...


...but this one speaks to the biggest option he has, which is to operate both wings parallel to one another and bring in whichever wing is not engaged to envelop. (If he sends one wing after Washington and the other through PA then Meade will just bring the Washington wing to battle.)

Yeah, so we are again going on the assumption the entire Confederate Army appears and is automatically prepared for battle and the Union is automatically uncoordinated? If so, does such an attack destroy the army without actual encirclement?

As far as a seperate wing, Meade could split and would probably have to to either assist the XXVII corps around Washington or proceed to another destination. What does weakening his army do to the AOP at Gettysburg or possibly the Army at Vicksburg?

 

[Saphroneth]

Yeah, so we are again going on the assumption the entire Confederate Army appears and is automatically prepared for battle and the Union is automatically uncoordinated? If so, does such an attack destroy the army without actual encirclement?

It's a fair point to say that the entire Confederate army wouldn't all turn up at once, but the points I was making were twofold:
1) The actual Second Day fighting at Gettysburg included an operational sequence which could already have broken the main defensive line of the Army of the Potomac.
2) The actual movements Meade made were such that they showed a weakness to a coordinated attack, either an echelon or a manoeuvre sur les derrieres (in both cases because of Meade's over-eager commitment of his reserve).

It's true that the Army of the Potomac wouldn't be destroyed straight off if all that happened was the breaking of Howard's corps at the hinge of the line, but it would compel a retreat down one or both of the roads while in contact - a difficult operation.

Now, what I think is the likely outcome if Lee had six corps? I think he'd use three march routes rather than two (there was one he didn't take historically), which would mean his leading troops were "up" faster and he would have more troops available on day two than historically - an extra corps, in fact. This in turn would make it more likely that Lee could force the issue one way or another, on days 2, 3 or a hypothetical day four once the entirety of Lee's army was "up" and he had plentiful fresh divisions to match against Meade's tired ones.

As far as a seperate wing, Meade could split and would probably have to to either assist the XXVII corps around Washington or proceed to another destination. What does weakening his army do to the AOP at Gettysburg or possibly the Army at Vicksburg?

If Washington is under threat I doubt Meade would even go to Gettysburg - he'd stay defending Washington, because compared to Washington Gettysburg is unimportant and there's no point risking being defeated in detail. For this reason I'd expect Lee to keep his wings close enough for mutual support, as otherwise Lee risks being defeated in detail.
If there were two objectives which were both important enough that the Union would have to defend them then Lee could split his force into two wings and expect a good result no matter what happened, but I don't think that's the case (though I'd be glad to be proven wrong).

 

[Lost Cause]

You are right if we are moving the timeline but we are only expanding the size of Lee's army to where it could truly compete against the Army of the Potomac... Your poopooing of the notion has no merit...

The forum is not complete without an Civil InfoWars version of what if's and conspiracy theories.

 

[5fish]

What is Lee's army sneaks onboard ships, sails secretly to New York City

You know it's a good plan...

Yeah, so we are again going on the assumption the entire Confederate Army appears and is automatically prepared for battle and the Union is automatically unc

On day one Lee having this large force most likely would not have held Anderson men back. These are the men he could have used to swept Howard and the Union off Cemetery hill... It would have been one day battle. Meade would have pulled back to Pike's run if I remember right...

If Washington is under threat I doubt Meade would even go to Gettysburg -

Maybe Lee would think I have this large force I will just cross the river and punch Hooker in the face again and drive him back to Washington...

What does Washington do once they realized Lee has an army of 150,000 men posed to threaten Washington... Do they start bringing troops back East from the West. Does it put Grant's campaign on hold?

 

[Saphroneth]

Maybe Lee would think I have this large force I will just cross the river and punch Hooker in the face again and drive him back to Washington...

Unlikely, Lee was a manoeuvrist. A pounding match isn't what he tended to go for.

What does Washington do once they realized Lee has an army of 150,000 men posed to threaten Washington... Do they start bringing troops back East from the West. Does it put Grant's campaign on hold?

Well, this speaks to the problem with assembling such a large force in the first place - pulling troops East would take quite a while, especially if the intent were to bring them "complete" with their supports. Of course, that's why Lee couldn't assemble such a large army in that much time in the first place.

 

[leftyhunter]

We all know that President Davis's and General Lee's strategy during the Civil War was in the end, an abject failure. We can tell that our fellow members do not think much of the static line and conservation of resource strategy to win the Civil war. It leaves us with just one last strategy to win the Civil war for Lee and the South...

The set up is by May of 1863 after his great Chancorville victory, Lee wanted to invade the North and again defeat/destroy the Union army on Northern soil. His plan was to have his army of like 70,000 move into Pennsylvania and form another army of 35,000 under General P.G.T. Beauregard which would head toward the Ohio border. In the end, Davis only approved Lee's invasion plans of the North with his one lone small army.

Let's say, Lee during one of the staff meeting discussing his invasion plans. Someone(Gordon) speaks up and points out how many times Lee has defeated and even routed the Union army but was never able to destroy it. Why? The person(Gordon) tells Lee simply the Army of Northern Virginia was not big enough and was always short about 25,000 or more men needed to destroy the Union army after defeating it. He explained, Lee to needed an army similar in size to Union army if he wants to defeat and destroy the Union army and win the war. Lee listens but said nothing.

The next day Lee agree after thinking about the young officer's words. He needed not only to defeat but destroy the Union army for total victory. He realized the war was not going well for the Confederacy resources for the army was getting harder to get and they were relying on capture Union army materials to keep his army going. He knew his health was not well after a winter cold( mild heart attack). He went to Davis and told him of his plans and told Davis he needs every available regiment brought to Richmond to create his mega army. David refuses at first until Lee threatens to support a coupe. Lee told Davis "it's our only hope, the mega army". David gave in and began to strip the Confederacy for all available regiments for Lee's mega army...

Lee's plan, he was going to take his mega army north and was going to battle the Army of the Potomac all summer until it was destroyed and his army was destroyed. It was going to be like the Seven Days Battle constant battling until one army was left standing... Lee's plan was simple Do or Die!

What if...
In June 1863, Lee started moving his Mega Army of 6 Corps and a total 150,000 men North into the Alternative Books of History and Sci-Fi... To Do or Die!

Steven Sears go's into detail about Lee requesting troops from the Confederate forces surrounding New Bern,North Carolina.
Davis replied if he stripped the men then General Burnside could breakthrough to Goldsboro and threaten the rail roads to Richmond.
If troops are taken from Bragg then Rosecrans could mount an offensive to Georgia with out the possibility of the AnV providing Bragg with reinforcements as they would at Chickumungua.
Also moving 75k or so men would not go unnoticed by the Union.
Leftyhunter

 

[5fish]

Steven Sears go's into detail about Lee requesting troops

I think Davis's fears were overblown. He needed to be a visionary if the Confederacy was going to prevail. May of 1863 was the peck of Lee's army before the decline and defeated of the cause. It was time for a hail Mary move...

 

[Jimklag]

The one fatal flaw in the 150,000 man scenario is the southern economy in 1863. The 75,000 man ANV was under supplied in both food and artillery ammunition. How could the south possibly supply a 150,000 man army even with forage from southern Pennsylvania. The fatal flaw with Lee's echelon plan on day 2 and frontal assault on day 3 was not only uncoordinated attacks and command issues, but poor artillery. The uncoordinated attacks on day 1 actually worked in Lee's favor, plus the artillery performed better (at least on Heth's front) than on the subsequent days. How can we think that all the south's logistical problems and faulty artillery problems would vanish just because they managed to conjure up a 150,000 man army?

 

[Saphroneth]

The fatal flaw with Lee's echelon plan on day 2 and frontal assault on day 3 was not only uncoordinated attacks and command issues, but poor artillery.

The echelon on day 2 was a coordinated attack which failed because a commander got shot at the wrong moment, so that's not really a fatal flaw there. As for coordination on day 3, that was present as well - Lee's attacks on either flank drew troops away from the centre. It's a classic Napoleonic trick, actually, the indirect approach.

As for how a 150,000 man army would be supplied, the availability of the resources themselves is not in doubt in this scenario because it's moving troops around (and obviously those troops ate food historically) but in the availability of the transport to move that food to the front.

 

[Jimklag]

As for how a 150,000 man army would be supplied, the availability of the resources themselves is not in doubt in this scenario because it's moving troops around (and obviously those troops ate food historically) but in the availability of the transport to move that food to the front.

By 1863, Lee and the other commanders were all complaining about food and fodder supplies. Parts of the army were detached to go look for forage in places that hadn't seen much fighting. Also, the quantity and quality of artillery ammunition had been in question for some time. They were not only out of supply wagons, they were out of horses for both the supply trains and the cavalry. Part of the reason the Union cavalry was catching up in quality to Jeb Stuart's boys is the quality of their mounts. All these issues only get worse with a 150,000 ANV.