In 1856, 149 Electoral College votes were required to be elected President. In 1860, 152 were required, due to the admission of two new states (Oregon and Minnesota).
In 1856, the Democrat Buchanan won the Presidency with 174 Electoral College votes. Republican Fremont had 114; Know-Nothing Fillmore grabbed 8 in Maryland.
In 1860, the Republican Lincoln won the Presidency with 180 Electoral College votes. Southern Democratic candidate Breckinridge had 72; Constitutional Union candidate Bell had 39; Northern Democratic candidate Douglas had 12. Combined, the Republican opposition (AKA the Democrats) had 123 votes.
So what happened?
The Republicans needed to pick up 38 votes they didn't have in 1856 to win. Where did they come from?
The Democrats simply had to keep what they had in 1856 to win. They could even afford to lose 21 Electoral College votes and still win the Presidency. Where did they lose out?
The Republicans picked up both of the new states, Minnesota (4) and Oregon (3). That seven votes gets them to 121. MN was a Republican landslide (63.4%), but OR was up for grabs, with Lincoln polling 36.1% and winning by only 254 votes.
The Know-Nothing party dissolved, and it is generally thought they folded into the Republicans. Where did Fillmore's 8 votes go? Not to the Republicans. Maryland went for the Southern Democratic Breckinridge.
Assuming the election had been run as a two-party affair with the Douglas-Breckinridge-Bell vote combined as a "Democratic" unit, that should have left the Democrats with a runaway Presidential victory: Democrats 182 to Republicans 121. Where did the Democrats blow it?
These states voted Democratic in 1856 and Republican in 1860:
California 4 votes
Illinois 11 votes
Indiana 13 votes
Pennsylvania 27 votes
In addition, New Jersey voted Democratic in 1856 (7 votes) and split their Electoral College vote in 1860 (4 Lincoln, 3 Douglas).
What all this means is that the Democrats essentially lost the election in these five states. In particular, they lost it in Pennsylvania and any one other state that changed. Take PA and hold CA or all of NJ and the Democrats win the 1860 Presidential election.
PA, of course, was home to Buchanan, and the "favorite son" element helped take that state in 1856. The Democratic Party strategy had long been to hold the South and take key northern states. In 1860, the party was deliberately split by extremists in the South as part of their effort to create the conditions for secession by electing a "Black Republican". They succeeded, fracturing the Democratic opposition and greatly aiding the Republican effort.
In addition, the Republicans understood the numbers very well after 1856. They campaigned strongly to switch a few key states over. In particular, they attempted to take PA away from the Democrats. They succeeded.
Losing PA was the big blow, and Lincoln won it solidly (56.3%). He actually only polled 48.1% in NJ, and 32.3% in divided CA. Lincoln's margins in IL (50.7%) and IN (51.1%) were very thin. Throw in the OR vote and it is obvious from this that Lincoln could have been beaten by a united Democratic effort in these six states.
More than any other state, PA wanted tariff protection for their iron and steel industry. NY and the New England states were pretty indifferent to the protection aspects of the proposed Morrill tariff. A small part of NJ (the industrial section from Newark to Patterson, mainly) also favored the protective Morrill Tariff.
In the 1860 election campaign, the Republicans pushed hard on the tariff in PA and NJ, while making it a minor issue elsewhere. Southerners tried to make it a big issue -- but Lincoln either wasn't on the ballot in their states or polled next to nothing (MD, VA, KY, MO).
What all this comes down to is this: Democratic Presidential defeat in 1860 comes down to two things: the deliberate fracturing of their party and poor political leadership. Reverse those and the Democrats almost certainly win in OR and CA. They might have won in either IL or IN, or both. They could easily have won all 7 of NJs votes instead of 3 (essentially, Lincoln lost in the areas where there was a fusion ticket against him and won where the Douglas Democrats refused to join against him). That is a potential swing of 34 votes, with only 29 needed to swing the election to the Democrats.
It seems unlikely they could have won PA given their intransigence on the tariff issue. Here they were simply out-politicked by the Republicans, losing where they had won a few years earlier.
A Democratic Presidential victory probably would have helped in Congress as well. Since the Republicans were in the minority in each house of Congress anyway after the 1860 election, all this presents us with a very different situation. Had the Democrats united instead of fracturing, they might easily have controlled both houses of Congress and the Presidency in 1861-62.
The problem then is that there'd be no "need to secede". No "Black Republican" President, no Republican majority in Congress, no immediate reason for all the fear and hysteria the Fire-Eaters were trying to fan into a nation of their own.
Tim
In 1856, the Democrat Buchanan won the Presidency with 174 Electoral College votes. Republican Fremont had 114; Know-Nothing Fillmore grabbed 8 in Maryland.
In 1860, the Republican Lincoln won the Presidency with 180 Electoral College votes. Southern Democratic candidate Breckinridge had 72; Constitutional Union candidate Bell had 39; Northern Democratic candidate Douglas had 12. Combined, the Republican opposition (AKA the Democrats) had 123 votes.
So what happened?
The Republicans needed to pick up 38 votes they didn't have in 1856 to win. Where did they come from?
The Democrats simply had to keep what they had in 1856 to win. They could even afford to lose 21 Electoral College votes and still win the Presidency. Where did they lose out?
The Republicans picked up both of the new states, Minnesota (4) and Oregon (3). That seven votes gets them to 121. MN was a Republican landslide (63.4%), but OR was up for grabs, with Lincoln polling 36.1% and winning by only 254 votes.
The Know-Nothing party dissolved, and it is generally thought they folded into the Republicans. Where did Fillmore's 8 votes go? Not to the Republicans. Maryland went for the Southern Democratic Breckinridge.
Assuming the election had been run as a two-party affair with the Douglas-Breckinridge-Bell vote combined as a "Democratic" unit, that should have left the Democrats with a runaway Presidential victory: Democrats 182 to Republicans 121. Where did the Democrats blow it?
These states voted Democratic in 1856 and Republican in 1860:
California 4 votes
Illinois 11 votes
Indiana 13 votes
Pennsylvania 27 votes
In addition, New Jersey voted Democratic in 1856 (7 votes) and split their Electoral College vote in 1860 (4 Lincoln, 3 Douglas).
What all this means is that the Democrats essentially lost the election in these five states. In particular, they lost it in Pennsylvania and any one other state that changed. Take PA and hold CA or all of NJ and the Democrats win the 1860 Presidential election.
PA, of course, was home to Buchanan, and the "favorite son" element helped take that state in 1856. The Democratic Party strategy had long been to hold the South and take key northern states. In 1860, the party was deliberately split by extremists in the South as part of their effort to create the conditions for secession by electing a "Black Republican". They succeeded, fracturing the Democratic opposition and greatly aiding the Republican effort.
In addition, the Republicans understood the numbers very well after 1856. They campaigned strongly to switch a few key states over. In particular, they attempted to take PA away from the Democrats. They succeeded.
Losing PA was the big blow, and Lincoln won it solidly (56.3%). He actually only polled 48.1% in NJ, and 32.3% in divided CA. Lincoln's margins in IL (50.7%) and IN (51.1%) were very thin. Throw in the OR vote and it is obvious from this that Lincoln could have been beaten by a united Democratic effort in these six states.
More than any other state, PA wanted tariff protection for their iron and steel industry. NY and the New England states were pretty indifferent to the protection aspects of the proposed Morrill tariff. A small part of NJ (the industrial section from Newark to Patterson, mainly) also favored the protective Morrill Tariff.
In the 1860 election campaign, the Republicans pushed hard on the tariff in PA and NJ, while making it a minor issue elsewhere. Southerners tried to make it a big issue -- but Lincoln either wasn't on the ballot in their states or polled next to nothing (MD, VA, KY, MO).
What all this comes down to is this: Democratic Presidential defeat in 1860 comes down to two things: the deliberate fracturing of their party and poor political leadership. Reverse those and the Democrats almost certainly win in OR and CA. They might have won in either IL or IN, or both. They could easily have won all 7 of NJs votes instead of 3 (essentially, Lincoln lost in the areas where there was a fusion ticket against him and won where the Douglas Democrats refused to join against him). That is a potential swing of 34 votes, with only 29 needed to swing the election to the Democrats.
It seems unlikely they could have won PA given their intransigence on the tariff issue. Here they were simply out-politicked by the Republicans, losing where they had won a few years earlier.
A Democratic Presidential victory probably would have helped in Congress as well. Since the Republicans were in the minority in each house of Congress anyway after the 1860 election, all this presents us with a very different situation. Had the Democrats united instead of fracturing, they might easily have controlled both houses of Congress and the Presidency in 1861-62.
The problem then is that there'd be no "need to secede". No "Black Republican" President, no Republican majority in Congress, no immediate reason for all the fear and hysteria the Fire-Eaters were trying to fan into a nation of their own.
Tim
Bringing the