Civil War Stalemate

[Sivart]

What would have happened if the Union and Confederates decided to declare a stalemate and sign a peace treaty? To clarify, no side is gaining any traction on the other, and they declare a draw. If the borders remained like shown below, what would have happened?

 

[Library Lady]

Have we discussed the need to move the Northern capital out of DC if something like this went down? DC is a terribly vulnerable position. Where would it go? I don't see Philadelphia as much of an improvement. Is New York City far enough away? Maybe Chicago?

I'm not sure how West Virginia works at the same time you're saying no territory is changing hands. By the time West Virginia makes the break, the Confederacy has lost a lot of territory. I have a hard time seeing the North giving territory back at that point. Are you saying the deal is made shortly after First Manassas? Would Virginia and the Confederacy then let West Virginia go in 1863? Having seceded themselves, I suppose it would be harder to tell another entity that they can't do it, but it's easier to do it than to have it done to you.

 

[13 IL Cav & 64 GA Inf]

Have we discussed the need to move the Northern capital out of DC if something like this went down? DC is a terribly vulnerable position. Where would it go? I don't see Philadelphia as much of an improvement. Is New York City far enough away? Maybe Chicago?

I'm not sure how West Virginia works at the same time you're saying no territory is changing hands. By the time West Virginia makes the break, the Confederacy has lost a lot of territory. I have a hard time seeing the North giving territory back at that point. Are you saying the deal is made shortly after First Manassas? Would Virginia and the Confederacy then let West Virginia go in 1863? Having seceded themselves, I suppose it would be harder to tell another entity that they can't do it, but it's easier to do it than to have it done to you.

They probably would have moved the Northern capital. If there was peace and no animosity remaining it might not have mattered much.

 

[dlofting]

That's not really a draw as the Confederacy is a separate entity which means that it "won", having achieved it's goal.

 

[wausaubob]

The chemistry of steel, the electrical engineering behind multi-plex telegraphy, and the mechanical engineering behind steam power in factories, ships and locomotives was progressing so fast that no such armistice was stable. The US would have conquered the Confederacy as soon as it was ready.
The problem with this speculation is that well before the US war power was fully tested the US controlled what became Arizona and New Mexico, and the city of New Orleans, and the Mississippi River below Memphis.

 

[wausaubob]

Its very hard to see how either political party in the paid labor states could agree to an armistice once the Confederate government confiscated debts owed to northern financial interests, instituted an embargo in Tennessee and Kentucky and issued letters of marque authorizing private raiding.

 

[wausaubob]

The United States possessed enormous advantages on the internal rivers, and in the far west.

 

[wausaubob]

What would have happened if the Union and Confederates decided to declare a stalemate and sign a peace treaty? To clarify, no side is gaining any traction on the other, and they declare a draw. If the borders remained like shown below, what would have happened?

View attachment 537687

If the Civil War would have begun in 1850, a stalemate was probable. But that's why Webster and Clay agreed to numerous compromises and Stephen A. Douglas found a majority for each piece of the compromises. And by 1868, because of international immigration, the wealth produced by the Gold Rush, and the rapid development of steam power, a Civil War would have led to a very quick US victory. By 1868 it would have obvious that the industrial power of the US would prevail.

 

[wausaubob]

Its impossible to speculate as to what would happen. But in the historical war those parts of the south nor profiting heavily from the cotton industry, directly or indirectly, were not enthusiastic about secession. As soon as there had been an armistice, the Confederate government would have faced the conflicting interests of the various regions. The enslaved population could not leave. But the white population of the hypothetical Confederacy would have wanted the same things that existed in the paid labor states. Those things included churches of multiple faiths, schools, a band stand, a competent doctor and an affordable dentist. The Confederacy would have found itself virtually surrounded by a nation rushing into the 20th century, and that would be unlike the either Brazil or South Africa.

 

[Josh The Lighthouse Guy]

What would have happened if the Union and Confederates decided to declare a stalemate and sign a peace treaty?

Depends on at what point during the war this occurs.

 

[Desert Kid]

Depends on at what point during the war this occurs.

Just prevent the capture of Atlanta. That's all.

 

[RedRover]

What would have happened if the Union and Confederates decided to declare a stalemate and sign a peace treaty? To clarify, no side is gaining any traction on the other, and they declare a draw. If the borders remained like shown below, what would have happened?

View attachment 537687

Confederate success was predicated upon an actual "Treaty of Peace" between the United States and the Confederate States, according to Confederate paper money...

Without such a treaty there would be no payout evidently...

The United States would have had to modify the Constitution to establish any kind of Treaty with the CSA, as it would have required the United States to recognize it as an agency to do so. The Constitution forbids the US Government from allowing any Confederacy of its States...

Because of the above, the United States never recognized the Confederacy in any political sense. And because the Southern State governments were in opposition to US jurisdiction, etc., the US Government did not consider them as entirely legitimate republican governments either.

So given these Constitutional issues, if there were a complete military stalemate at some point, the United States would have just ceased military action and perhaps parked troops, etc. on the border with the Confederacy, etc. But so long as the United States Government existed, under the Constitution, many in the North considered it inevitable that it had to press the Union cause without cessation...

Such a situation of a military stalemate, in which military action within the Confederate States ceased, would not evidently have had any effect on the Constitution and the laws unless the US Constitution was in some manner modified or abandoned by the States.

In Jefferson Davis' hearing in federal court in 1868 his lawyer Mr. O'Conor argued against the treason charge against his client, noting that he had just passed through a Civil War; and alluded to a hypothetical that had the Confederacy survived intact for some decades, employing all the attributes of a de facto government so that should the United States thereafter have restored its jurisdiction, it surely couldn't have accused Davis' descendants of treason, etc. for abiding their powers that be where a federal jurisdiction was not manifest... viz. so long as the US Constitution remained in effect, the children of the Confederacy would have been United States citizens per the United States, irrespective of the interruption of the laws of the Union therein.

Anyways, Thomas Jefferson in 1798 opined that a sectional scission of the Union would lead even Southern States to eventually target each other, so they could not last too long...

And many former Confederates presumed that had the conflict with the United States Government ceased before the collapse of the Confederacy the Southern States might have turned upon their Confederacy or each other. As early as April, 1861 there were rumblings of secession from the Confederacy...

And even during the wars' course...

Robert Underwood Johnson opined in the early 20th Century on the subject:

Johnson is quoting former Confederate General Roger A. Pryor, who opined in 1889:

General William T. Martin of Mississippi, from 1865:

General E. Porter Alexander of Georgia:

 

[16thVA]

What would have happened if the Union and Confederates decided to declare a stalemate and sign a peace treaty? To clarify, no side is gaining any traction on the other, and they declare a draw. If the borders remained like shown below, what would have happened?

View attachment 537687

The map is wrong, West Virginia was the least loyal of the border states, half of its counties officially voted to secede from the US and it was the only border state that didn't give most of its soldiers to the Union. It would have gone back to Virginia.

 

[Library Lady]

@16thVA , do you know offhand (or with a map if you have one) if the halves were intermixed or if they were in clumps where part of the state would go back to Virginia and part would want to stay its own state (if it had enough people to reapply)?

 

[JeffBrooks]

Since the Confederacy was founded on the idea of secession, I would expect Texas to secede from the Confederacy once it became clear how much oil there was in the Lone Star State. The third novel of the Shattered Nation series (which I never got around to writing, and probably never will) was to have been premised on this idea.

 

[JerryD]

What would have happened if the Union and Confederates decided to declare a stalemate and sign a peace treaty? To clarify, no side is gaining any traction on the other, and they declare a draw. If the borders remained like shown below, what would have happened?

View attachment 537687

In other words, Confederate victory. The CSA wins when the USA stops trying to force them back.

 

[Josh The Lighthouse Guy]

@16thVA , do you know offhand (or with a map if you have one) if the halves were intermixed or if they were in clumps where part of the state would go back to Virginia and part would want to stay its own state (if it had enough people to reapply)?

Basically the western third of the state - the counties closest to the Ohio River - were majority Union and the rest pro Confederate. The eastern panhandle Morgan/Berkeley/Jefferson) were also closely split.

The B&O Railroad complicated matters and was the main reason the three counties I just mentioned were included in West Virginia despite being more geographically aligned with the Shenandoah.

 

[Josh The Lighthouse Guy]

Just prevent the capture of Atlanta. That's all.

That's the most plausible scenario.

If we suppose the stalemate at Atlanta and Petersburg leads to Lincoln's defeat and a Democrat administration that immediately ends the war (probably not McClellan), I think the resulting independent Confederacy isn't full size.

The border states all stay in the Union, although the border of West Virginia might be negotiated. The B&O Railroad complicated things.

I also don't think the Confederacy comes away with Tennessee or the Eastern Shore of Virginia. The Confederates lost most of the former in 1862 and never controlled any of the latter.

I also wonder about the Florida Keys, particularly Key West and the Dry Tortugas. Probably given up to the Confederacy, but they were under Union control throughout the war and had been a haven for Unionists so I wouldn't consider it a certainty.

Indian Territory is another question. There could be some division there, or maybe just pro-Confederate factions of some of the Five Tribes moving across the Red River to new reservations in northern Texas.

I expect whatever the specifics, a political movement will fester in the CSA to "redeem the Southern states that remain under the yoke of Yankee tyranny."

 

[Stryker65]

Since the Confederacy was founded on the idea of secession, I would expect Texas to secede from the Confederacy once it became clear how much oil there was in the Lone Star State. The third novel of the Shattered Nation series (which I never got around to writing, and probably never will) was to have been premised on this idea.

I would expect Georgia to secede as well, noting Governor Brown's repeated disregard for Davis's "united government" policy in favor of an individualized "states' rights" form of government (for example, the State Troops/Militia/State Guard problems, etc.). North Carolina could easily follow the same path.

In any case, there will be continued fighting, in (I believe) the following places:
- East Tennessee: The Unionist sentiment in the area would have kept this alive; in 1864 the Union had two entire cavalry divisions raised and formed from the area!
- Western North Carolina: The mountains were entirely unconquerable, and were a haven for Confederate deserters. In 1864, George W. Kirk and his brigade dominated the region.
- Southern Mississippi: Jones County, for instance. The swamps, much like above, were a haven for Confederate deserters and Unionists.
- Missouri: This of course being the most contentious border state -- no matter who controls the state, there will be as many guerrillas as there were under the Union as under the Confederacy.
- Nevada: You may be surprised to know that Nevada was VERY pro-Confederate. The secessionists' capital, IIRC, was in the self-named Varina City (named after, of course, Varina Davis).

Additionally, were the war to end after 1863, I would see a giant problem with the formation of the USCT. The Confederacy would undoubtedly ask for their "property" back, but the Union would not release two divisions-worth of their army back into slavery. Confederates would be in an uproar, and demand to be paid, and I doubt the Union would pay them either. Having two separate countries thus existing, in which Southern slaves could flee north and join the Union army encroaching on disputed Southern territory, would definitely exacerbate tensions and might start the war again.

What would have happened if the Union and Confederates decided to declare a stalemate and sign a peace treaty? To clarify, no side is gaining any traction on the other, and they declare a draw. If the borders remained like shown below, what would have happened?

View attachment 537687

If we shade in the territories as well, then Nebraska, the Dakotas, Idaho/Wyoming/Montana, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah would stay in the Union. HOWEVER, Arizona and Nevada would most definitely secede, if they could. The mining populations of both of these states were very pro-Confederate. The Indian Territory, of course, is another matter.

 

[13 IL Cav & 64 GA Inf]

What would have happened if the Union and Confederates decided to declare a stalemate and sign a peace treaty? To clarify, no side is gaining any traction on the other, and they declare a draw. If the borders remained like shown below, what would have happened?

View attachment 537687

MO, KY, and MD could be colored in BLUE, because they would be part of the USA.