Biggest Confederate Error

[KeyserSoze]

The biggest Confederate error was starting a war they could not win.

 

[leftyhunter]

It is questionable as to how "wealthy" the "South" was. "On paper" is one thing, in practice quite another. Northern factory owners, Western mine owners and Southern planters had things in common. When their enterprises were profitable, they had positive assets. If things went badly, the enterprises became liabilities. Unproductive factories and mines ceased operations and were mostly worthless... and now a difference... plantations, because they generally still had "paper" value, continued, with the owner going deeper into debt.
Compared to the Northeast, the South had little money and the apparent wealth of the planter upper class was supported by the old credit system that had much of its assets in hock to mostly Northern lenders. In years of crop profitability, planters might become unburdened from debt, but their assets were far from mobile.
To make a proper assessment of Southern wealth, two sets of books would be needed. One set defining "paper" values and another defining a "practical" set of values, that is, what the assets might practically be converted into. In 1861 the only US currency was coin. AS the Civil war began, a typical planter's assets could not be sold for much (except on paper) as there was very little coin (specie) in the South. The South's wealth needs to be treated very subjectively.

Good point. My main point is there was no valid reason to set up major factories in the South. There was not a large base if cheap white labor and transportation in the North was better. Wealthy Southerners were not clamoring to invest in industry.
Leftyhunter

 

[USS ALASKA]

The disappearance of English vessels from the South in the fall and winter of 1861–1862 is . . . easily explained. They were not scared away by the federal blockade. . . . Foreign carries abandoned southern ports for the best of commercial reasons—there were no cargoes to be obtained.

One of the reasons that is rarely discussed for the '...disappearance of English vessels from the South...' is insurance. If you are a British shipping magnate, do you risk losing your '...ordinary deep-water vessels...', which are a considerable capitol investment, to loss with no opportunity of reimbursement? Not loss to blockading vessels but to the normal hazards of seafaring - storms / fire / grounding - no broker is issuing policies for ships whose recorded destination is a belligerent Southern port on which a blockade has been declared, effective or not. And if falsified policies are submitted, when discovered it voids the policy. And the risk of losing coverage on all vessels of that owner is too great a risk.

Blockade running in 1862 and afterward became one of the most profitable industries. . . . It would have been similarly profitable in [1861], and vessels would have swarmed into southern ports, had not . . . [the embargo] been concentrated on preventing exports.

'It would have been similarly profitable in [1861], and vessels would have swarmed into southern ports, had not . . . [the embargo] been concentrated on preventing exports.' The profitability of running the blockade was because on the scarcity of vessels accomplishing it, (compared to antebellum levels). Had vessels '...swarmed into southern ports...', scarcity would have disappeared along with any inflated price mark-up.

During fall and winter 1861–1862, ordinary deep-water vessels could easily enter most Southern ports without a significant risk of being stopped by blockading patrols.

By that time frame, what Southern ports could '...easily...', and more importantly, safely, accommodate '...ordinary deep-water vessels...' ? NOLA or Savannah until Spring of '62? Charleston? Norfolk is out simply due to the amount of Union ships in the area. And the approaches to Wilmington aren't exactly friendly to '...ordinary deep-water vessels...'
626

Cheers,
USS ALASKA

 

[Hoseman]

IMO, the largest Confederate error was not finding a competent commander for the Army of Tennessee and Jefferson Davis keeping Bragg in command for too long. The south needed two Robert E Lees, one for each theater. I do not know who would have been a better choice but it obviously wasn't Hood. I also think that the powers to be never fully appreciated or utilized NB Forrest out west either and that was a huge mistake.

 

[OpnCoronet]

Where was the csa going to get its cotton and how much time would be required to actually get it to the ports and on board ships.

If they got cotton, how long for enough ships for transportation, would be required.

Does Benjamin's or other plans require Davis to delay the attack on Ft. Sumter and if so, what does that do for confederate plans for Va. and the Border States.

As noted by another poster, what would the Union counter measures be?

 

[thomas aagaard]

As noted by another poster, what would the Union counter measures be?

Without the attack on Sumter Lincoln would have a hard time doing anything serious about it.

 

[leftyhunter]

True, but little of the slave labor ran off unless the Union was nearby. No war, no runaways.
Nice, but the South could enlist a greater percent of their labor force because the slaves would make up the shortfall.
True but the USCT was a regular military force, not a 5th column.
True again, but only if Union forces were nearby.
Correct, but the South did not lose a battle for a lack of blockade runners or that matter gunpowder, material`, artillery and so on.
White gold, fluffy cotton was the oil of the mid 19th century. True again, but not a contention of mine. My position is that patience magically negates those Union advantages.

Don't provoke Lincoln, spread some gold around to the copperheads, export cotton like crazy, leave Lincoln in a political morass, seduce Virginia for her industry. Crash industrialization program gets an industry deeper South. It is firing on Sumter before preparing for a war that got the CSA in trouble. Could be the slaveholder mentality and the resulting honor culture had something do with it.

Quite a few slaves did runaway and late in the war as the Confederacy list internal control of various areas there were various runaway gangs that preyed on local slave owners. I have a thread"Armed lack resistance" that deals with that subject.
If give a chance black men would and bear arms for the Union but not the Confederacy.
Free immigrant labor was far superior to slave labor in skills and loyalty. Immigrants bore arms for the Union. Slaves did not fight for the Confederacy.
Confederate leaders simply lacked the mindset and intelligence to achieve Independence without resorting to war .
Leftyhunter

 

[jgoodguy]

Confederate leaders simply lacked the mindset and intelligence to achieve Independence without resorting to war .
Leftyhunter

I thank patience was the issue.

 

[OldReliable1862]

Quite a few slaves did runaway and late in the war as the Confederacy list internal control of various areas there were various runaway gangs that preyed on local slave owners. I have a thread"Armed lack resistance" that deals with that subject.
If give a chance black men would and bear arms for the Union but not the Confederacy.
Free immigrant labor was far superior to slave labor in skills and loyalty. Immigrants bore arms for the Union. Slaves did not fight for the Confederacy.
Confederate leaders simply lacked the mindset and intelligence to achieve Independence without resorting to war .
Leftyhunter

Would you please clarify what you mean by "lacking intelligence." You no doubt can see how the use of a phrase like this can easily be misinterpreted as being only a cheap insult, but I strongly doubt you meant anything like that.

 

[Robin Lesjovitch]

I thank patience was the issue.

I'm sure patience was a decisive factor in the beginning of the war. During the weeks that Lincoln and Davis stared at each other, Davis showed no inclination to take aggressive action. Lincoln seemed to want a military solution almost from his first minute as president. At first his cabinet and General Scott told him any move he made in Charleston Harbor would lead to war. Finally, president Lincoln sold the Army, Navy and his cabinet on a partially baked plan to supply Ft. Sumter by boat. This was sold as a needed mission to relieve Major Anderson's men. In fact, the Sumter garrison was not starving, and had been allowed to buy food in Charleston in quantities to meet immediate need; nothing that could be stored long term, just fresh food.
At this point two men could avoid war. Robert Anderson could ask Beauregard for his garrison to be evacuated before the Federal Ships arrived. Anderson understood that so long as his troops had limited ammunition, he presented no real danger to Charleston Harbor, and, the Confederates would leave him alone. But, that would have been insubordination, evacuation, as he had been informed of the resupply mission.
The other was Davis. Davis might have allowed the resupply, and risked what it might mean. But, that included the real possibility of charges against him of misfeasance, at best, but more likely malfeasance. If the rearmed and reinforced guns of Sumter caused problems in Charleston Harbor, Davis himself would have to admit he was a pathetic president. It is easy today to state that Davis had options other than reducing the threat before it fully developed; I'm sure there were other options. However to mature a plan to meet Lincoln's threat peacefully, Davis would have needed time. He did not have very much.
Lincoln had great forensic skills. He turned his impatience into Davis'. And made it stick. That is not an indictment of Lincoln, but an appreciation of his skills as a lawyer.

 

[thomas aagaard]

At this point two men could avoid war.

No and no.
Anderson had clear orders. And he made it clear to Beauregard when he would run out of food and be willing to surrender.
But Beauregard did not have the option of waited the needed few days.

Davis was similar limited by the fact that the CSA congress had ordered him to take Sumter by force... So he similar could not wait for Anderson to run out of food.

 

[Robin Lesjovitch]

No and no.
Anderson had clear orders. And he made it clear to Beauregard when he would run out of food and be willing to surrender.
But Beauregard did not have the option of waited the needed few days.

Davis was similar limited by the fact that the CSA congress had ordered him to take Sumter by force... So he similar could not wait for Anderson to run out of food.

You are quite right. However had either Anderson or Davis had the "spin" skills of Lincoln, they might have found a way. Neither did.

 

[leftyhunter]

Would you please clarify what you mean by "lacking intelligence." You no doubt can see how the use of a phrase like this can easily be misinterpreted as being only a cheap insult, but I strongly doubt you meant anything like that.

By lacking intelligence I mean the leadership of the Secessionists didn't consider non violent resistance. Something along the lines that Gandhi would utilize about fifty years latter in South Africa then latter in British India.
For example instead if buying items from the North or overseas and paying tariffs the South to the greatest extent possible would manufacture it's own items. If the secessionists didn't want to pay tariffs then they could of surrounded the Customs Houses with demonstrators.
Instead of bombarding Ft.Sumter just have a human blockade consisting of barricades such as sunken ships to block supply ships.
If the Confederacy truly desired Independence over slavery then they could of freed all the slaves in 1861 grant them full equality and in exchange they could be conscripted in to the Confederate Army.
Leftyhunter

 

[leftyhunter]

Would you please clarify what you mean by "lacking intelligence." You no doubt can see how the use of a phrase like this can easily be misinterpreted as being only a cheap insult, but I strongly doubt you meant anything like that.

Also @jgoodguy ,
Another lack of intelligence by the Secessionists was they seem to have forgotten that 80 odd year's prior the the firing on Ft.Sumter the British Army did successfully recruit slaves to join the British Army in return for emancipation and the British Army would support the newly freed soldiers families.
Unfortunately for the British they were outnumbered especially when the French Army arrived in the Colonies and the British Army couldn't free an adequate amount of slaves.
Also the Secessionists also forgot that in the battle for Haitian Independence black men can fight just as well as white men. In other words the Secessionists in the strictest sense were holding a tiger by the tail. That Tiger was forty percent of the Southern population.
Leftyhunter

 

[jgoodguy]

Also @jgoodguy ,
Another lack of intelligence by the Secessionists was they seem to have forgotten that 80 odd year's prior the the firing on Ft.Sumter the British Army did successfully recruit slaves to join the British Army in return for emancipation and the British Army would support the newly freed soldiers families.
Unfortunately for the British they were outnumbered especially when the French Army arrived in the Colonies and the British Army couldn't free an adequate amount of slaves.
Also the Secessionists also forgot that in the battle for Haitian Independence black men can fight just as well as white men. In other words the Secessionists in the strictest sense were holding a tiger by the tail. That Tiger was forty percent of the Southern population.
Leftyhunter

The honored secessionsts simply thought it is different this time. A failure also common to a particular street in a Northern port city.

 

[Stone in the wall]

IMO, the largest Confederate error was not finding a competent commander for the Army of Tennessee and Jefferson Davis keeping Bragg in command for too long. The south needed two Robert E Lees, one for each theater. I do not know who would have been a better choice but it obviously wasn't Hood. I also think that the powers to be never fully appreciated or utilized NB Forrest out west either and that was a huge mistake.

Good points. I have often wondered what type of commander Albert Johnson would have turned out to be had he survived Shiloh.

 

[Jimklag]

Davis was similar limited by the fact that the CSA congress had ordered him to take Sumter by force... So he similar could not wait for Anderson to run out of food.

I think if you look again, Davis acted on his own authority. The congress never ordered Davis to do anything. He would not have allowed it, and given his arrogance would have ignored them if they tried.

 

[Jimklag]

I think if you look again, Davis acted on his own authority. The congress never ordered Davis to do anything. He would not have allowed it, and given his arrogance would have ignored them if they tried.

An instructive example is the patient way Lincoln handled the US Senate during the 1862 Cabinet crisis when Senators were trying to force Lincoln to shuffle his cabinet. Davis would have been highly offended, would have snubbed them and told them to mind their own business.

 

[jgoodguy]

I think if you look again, Davis acted on his own authority. The congress never ordered Davis to do anything. He would not have allowed it, and given his arrogance would have ignored them if they tried.

Resolution reads:

Resolved, That it is the sense of this Congress that immediate steps should be taken to obtain possession of Forts Sumter and Pickens by the authority of this Government, either by negotiation, or force, as early as practicable, and the President is hereby authorized to make all necessary military preparations for carrying this resolution into effect.​

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An instructive example is the patient way Lincoln handled the US Senate during the 1862 Cabinet crisis when Senators were trying to force Lincoln to shuffle his cabinet. Davis would have been highly offended, would have snubbed them and told them to mind their own business.

Part and parcel of the slaveowner mindset in an honor based society based on the owning of slaves. Everyone with a slave is a master.

 

[Jimklag]

Resolved, That it is the sense of this Congress that immediate steps should be taken to obtain possession of Forts Sumter and Pickens by the authority of this Government, either by negotiation, or force, as early as practicable, and the President is hereby authorized to make all necessary military preparations for carrying this resolution into effect.

Exactly. That hardly constitutes an order to use force.