Appomattox breakout?

[major bill]

When Lee evacuated Richmond he intended to move south to join up with Johnston. If Lee's whole army could made good their escape, we are looking at a combined army of 150,000 men or more. At this late in the war would the combined army have any hope of accomplishing anything that would have changed the outcome of the war? Certainly an army that large could have defeated Sherman and then perhaps turn on Grant. I just am not sure the Confederacy at that point in the war could have supplied such a large army in any one place for any length of time. Also by the time Lee neared Appomattox his army was considerably weakened and if Lee's army was further persuaded by Union troops it is not certain Lee could have reached Johnston with more than 20,000 men.

 

[Chattahooch33]

Lee would not have had time to defeat Sherman then turn on Grant.
The Federals were at his heels from Richmond until the end and he was harassed by cavalry the entire time. He had no supplies to feed a combined force.

 

[Rebel_Giratina]

Let's face it, a breakout might have delayed the war for a month, maybe two. The Confederacy was doomed at this point.

 

[kholland]

After the Battle of Bentonville in March, Johnson had about 30,000 men in his immediate command or half of what Sherman had. And when General Schofield joined Sherman at Golsborough they had about 80,000. When Lee surrendered at Appomattox Johnson knew that he was not going to be reinforced and surrendered his entire "army group" which was around 90,000 spread over a number of states.

 

[kevikens]

Logistics in that region would have made it impossible either to feed or supply such an army. The food was not there. The railroads were in shambles, the munitions factories in rubble. Had somehow the scenario you envisioned taken place what it might have led to is a Gotterdammerung of apocalyptic proportions, with one final, massive bloodletting that would have embittered the populace of both sides for decades to come. Let us thank our lucky stars it ended as it did.

 

[major bill]

I am guessing the effective army of a combined Lee and Johnston would have been more like 60,000 or so. Both Lee and Johnston had some home guard and militia units that would have not been very useful expect on the defense or perhaps to guard supplies or other such duties.

 

[Jamieva]

60,000 tired starving men against at least double their number of well supplied well fed men? Not good odds.

 

[Don Dixon]

Shortly before the surrender at Appomattox, Jefferson Davis and various of Lee's generals wanted him to break up the Army of Northern Virginia and head for the hillls to continue resistance through guerrilla warfare. To Lee's everlasting credit he did not/would not do this. If he had done so...... By that stage of the war, the Federal Army would have extirpated the south. If you think that Sherman's march to the sea or the burning time in the Shennandoah Valley were bad, think of what would have happened. The guerrillas and their supporters would no longer have been covered by General Order Number 100, 24 April 1863 (the Lieber Code), in that a Confederate government and command structure would no longer have existed.

The Lieber Code was the first detailed, written articulation of the law of land warfare. In many respects it formed the basis of the Hague Conventions of 1899 and 1909 and the four Geneva Conventions of 1949. The Lieber Code first articulated, for example, the principle that in order to be considered soldiers men had to have an organized command structure, had to wear uniforms or a "mark" recognisable at a distance, carry their arms openly, and obey the laws of war themselves. The force that Davis proposed could not have done this, and consequently would have been literaly outside the law of war. The consequences for the southern population are obvious.

Lincoln transmitted a copy of GO 100 to Jefferson Davis shortly after it was issued, and advised him that the Federal Army expected that the Confederate Army would abide by its rules. As someone interested in the Civil War, I would suggest that you read it. If you are currently a soldier, it still has an impact on the expectations of your lawful behavior in war.

Regards,
Don Dixon

 

[samuel orris]

Lee would not still have had 150,000 men when he turned on Grant. I believe Sherman would have caused at least 30% casualties to Lee's army. Surely not enough to then turn on Grant.

 

[OpnCoronet]

I agree with those who think the time frame of the OP, is much too late, to expect any real difference in the outcome, except the time and place of the final surrender of the ANV.

To me, the last chance to perhaps change the outcome of the siege itself, i.e., the surrender of the ANV, to any significant degree, would be a more successful planning and execution of Lee's attack at Ft. Stedman. .
If Lee could have caused Grant to shorten his lines to the South, and had been really planned and prepared to take advantage, the ANV might have been able to escape the Petersburg Lines in much better condition than he did in reality.

P.S. the results of a clean breakout and escape by Lee's Army, could(probably would) have had serious political repercussions in Congress and the White House.

 

[Jamieva]

Lee would not still have had 150,000 men when he turned on Grant. I believe Sherman would have caused at least 30% casualties to Lee's army. Surely not enough to then turn on Grant.

they would've had stragglers and men going awol at a rate that we cannot calculate.

 

[kevikens]

In recent times when

Shortly before the surrender at Appomattox, Jefferson Davis and various of Lee's generals wanted him to break up the Army of Northern Virginia and head for the hillls to continue resistance through guerrilla warfare. To Lee's everlasting credit he did not/would not do this. If he had done so...... By that stage of the war, the Federal Army would have extirpated the south. If you think that Sherman's march to the sea or the burning time in the Shennandoah Valley were bad, think of what would have happened. The guerrillas and their supporters would no longer have been covered by General Order Number 100, 24 April 1863 (the Lieber Code), in that a Confederate government and command structure would no longer have existed.

The Lieber Code was the first detailed, written articulation of the law of land warfare. In many respects it formed the basis of the Hague Conventions of 1899 and 1909 and the four Geneva Conventions of 1949. The Lieber Code first articulated, for example, the principle that in order to be considered soldiers men had to have an organized command structure, had to wear uniforms or a "mark" recognisable at a distance, carry their arms openly, and obey the laws of war themselves. The force that Davis proposed could not have done this, and consequently would have been literaly outside the law of war. The consequences for the southern population are obvious.

Lincoln transmitted a copy of GO 100 to Jefferson Davis shortly after it was issued, and advised him that the Federal Army expected that the Confederate Army would abide by its rules. As someone interested in the Civil War, I would suggest that you read it. If you are currently a soldier, it still has an impact on the expectations of your lawful behavior in war.

Regards,
Don Dixon

When the US Army has had to deal with guerrillas in recent times it has attempted to follow rules that limit how the troops behave. For an idea of how the US Army might have behaved in a guerrilla war against Southern intransigents circa 1865 consider how the US Army dealt with the Philippine Insurrection after the Spanish American War. It was successful but not very pretty. A civil war brings out the worst in a people. Having to put down down a guerrilla insurgency brings out the worst in an army. Can you imagine what it would have looked like putting down a guerrilla insurgency within a civil war? Whoever runs this universe did this country a great favor putting Lee and Grant at Appomattox and not Sheridan and Forrest there.

 

[KeyserSoze]

If Lee's whole army could made good their escape, we are looking at a combined army of 150,000 men or more.

Where did you get the 150,000 figure from? At best a combined Lee/Johnston army might have fielded a third of that.

 

[Will Carry]

I think it was a pipe dream. The southerners were starving, in bad health and moral was low.

The Germans had a way a rating divisions in WWII. An "A" division was capable of prolonged offensive action. A "B" division was capable of limited offensive actions. "C" troops were only capable of fighting defensive actions and "D" troops were only capable of defensive action behind strong trench works and fortifications. The Army of Tennessee had been incapable of any strong offensive actions since before their retreat to Atlanta (though their braver has never been in doubt). Lee's Army was proud but I don't think they were capable of anything but defensive actions.