What if...

thebattle29

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Hello, ladies and gentlemen. I'm speculating on a few questions, and will post one for a few different major battles here.
thebattle29

A. What if at 1st Bull Run/Mamassas T.J. "Stonewall" Jackson didn't earn his moniker and the Confederates ran away.
B. At Shiloh/Pittsburg Landing, what if Prentiss and Wallace didn't hold their positions at the Hornet's Nest?
C. What would have happened if the Union didn't cross the Chickahominy River instead of marching off to Gaines' Mill?
D. During the Battle of Malvern Hill/Poindexter's Farm what if the Union artillery commander, Henry Jackson Hunt was incompetent or on leave?
E. What if Maj. Gen. McClellan instead of Maj. Gen. Pope commanded the Union combined forces at 2nd Bull Run/Manassas?
F. At Antietam/Sharpsburg, what if A.P. Hill didn't arrive when he did?
G. What would have happened if at Fredericksburg Union commanders cooperated with G.G. Meade and attacked Prospect Hill in full force where Meade launched his assault and in a coincidence, found Maxcy Gregg's position?
H. During Stones River, Rosecrans fortified at Nashville Pike. What if he retreated to, say, Hardin Pike?
I. What if Chancellorsville did not even happen? Would Hooker remain in command?
J. At Gettysburg, would Ewell have won by taking Cemetery Hill if he was more aggresive?
K. Chickamauga. Would IT have happened if Rosecrans was more active in defending the bridges and fords?
L. At Cold Harbor, what if the Union sent an attack rush in one place along the confederate line, instead of spreading out?
M. What if at Franklin, Confederate brigade-division commanders weren't killed? (Morale-wise, not strategically)
N. What would happen at the theoretical Battle of Washington?
O. What would happen at the theoretical Battle of Richmond?
 
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A. Short war.
B. Fewer dead men on both sides.
C. Seven Days Battle gets a name change , Yanks still end up on the James.
D. no change.
E. Jackson probably wouldn't have walked into the Junction.
F. Lee would have been in a little more trouble than he already was.
G. First Meade didn't break thru, just into. Second no real change, maybe the Yanks would have felt better about losing.
H. Still losing.
I. Probably another few weeks or so.
J. Culp's Hill? Probably.
K. Yes.
L. Dead Yanks aligned perpendicular to the Confederate line instead of parallel.
H. He lives!
N and O. I saw the movie, Aliens blow up the White House.
 
Hello, ladies and gentlemen. I'm speculating on a few questions, and will post one for a few different major battles here.
thebattle29

A. What if at 1st Bull Run/Mamassas T.J. "Stonewall" Jackson didn't earn his moniker and the Confederates ran away.
B. At Shiloh/Pittsburg Landing, what if Prentiss and Wallace didn't hold their positions at the Hornet's Nest?
C. What would have happened if the Union didn't cross the Chickahominy River instead of marching off to Gaines' Mill?
D. During the Battle of Malvern Hill/Poindexter's Farm what if the Union artillery commander, Henry Jackson Hunt was incompetent or on leave?
E. What if Maj. Gen. McClellan instead of Maj. Gen. Pope commanded the Union combined forces at 2nd Bull Run/Manassas?
F. At Antietam/Sharpsburg, what if A.P. Hill didn't arrive when he did?
G. What would have happened if at Fredericksburg Union commanders cooperated with G.G. Meade and attacked Prospect Hill in full force where Meade launched his assault and broke through?
H. During Stones River, Rosecrans fortified at Nashville Pike. What if he retreated to, say, Hardin Pike?
I. What if Chancellorsville did not even happen? Would Hooker remain in command?
J. At Gettysburg, would Ewell have won by taking Cemetery Hill if he was more aggresive?
K. Chickamauga. Would IT have happened if Rosecrans was more active in defending the bridges and fords?
L. At Cold Harbor, what if the Union sent an attack rush in one place along the confederate line, instead of spreading out?
M. What if at Franklin, Cleburne wasn't killed?
N. What would happen at the theoretical Battle of Washington?
O. What would happen at the theoretical Battle of Richmond?
Cleburne surviving Franklin wouldn't change the course of the war. I'd say nothing really would change the course of the war at that point besides serial incompentence on the Union side (unlikely as by that point the worst commanders were out of the picture).
A more interesting what if in the case of Franklin I think would be "What if Opdycke acquised to Wagner's decision and stayed on the forward position?" To which I'd answer, the Union line in the center would have broken, no reserves to plug the gap, a wider union front in Wagner's position would mean more confederates probably would have survived and not gotten cut down from the Union defensive line. Maybe Stewart's Corps would be badly cut up, but the Confederates could have rolled up the flanks and routed the Army of the Cumberland, possibly cutting off the retreat and creating a Liepzig esque situation where the Union troops have to retreat pell mell across a few pontoon bridges. This would have neutralized the Army of the Cumberland, and would make it difficult, though not impossible, for Thomas to launch a counterstroke at Nashville, as he would have the city garrison and the 16th Corps arriving, and the Confederates still would have suffered significant casualties.
 
In addition: Chancellorsville not happening. Why not? Hooker has concentrated 130 thousand men, while Lee has detached part of his army to forage in Southern Virginia, out of range so to say to reinforce him quickly. In addition, Hooker's men aren't staying forever, many are mustering out as their terms of service are expiring (use it while it lasts, so to say).
Hooker could have been more aggressive against Lee, certainly. He could have turned the situation around even after Howard's Corps got routed the second day. He had the manpower to continue the campaign, as Grant had, even if he suffers a defeat.
 
Cleburne surviving Franklin wouldn't change the course of the war. I'd say nothing really would change the course of the war at that point besides serial incompentence on the Union side (unlikely as by that point the worst commanders were out of the picture).
A more interesting what if in the case of Franklin I think would be "What if Opdycke acquised to Wagner's decision and stayed on the forward position?" To which I'd answer, the Union line in the center would have broken, no reserves to plug the gap, a wider union front in Wagner's position would mean more confederates probably would have survived and not gotten cut down from the Union defensive line. Maybe Stewart's Corps would be badly cut up, but the Confederates could have rolled up the flanks and routed the Army of the Cumberland, possibly cutting off the retreat and creating a Liepzig-esque situation where the Union troops have to retreat pell mell across a few pontoon bridges. This would have neutralized the Army of the Cumberland, and would make it difficult, though not impossible, for Thomas to launch a counterstroke at Nashville, as he would have the city garrison and the 16th Corps arriving, and the Confederates still would have suffered significant casualties.
I meant morale-wise, in that instant. But good answer!
 
I meant morale-wise, in that instant. But good answer!
morale isn't going to save the Confederacy at that point...and the 7000 casaulties at Franklin for little to no gain did more damage to morale than CLeburne's death. Nashville probably would have gone the same way it did historically. Only difference is maybe Cleburne gets Corps or even army command and leads the AoT at Bentonville, but that force is already ridicoulously depleted (the AoT in total at Bentonville numbered around 5000 men).
Also, keep in mind, Cleburne isn't the only commander killed in the battle. Many brigade and regiment commanders were cut down. Yes, Cleburne was a good commander, and quite popular with his troops. But that would not counteract the affect on the rest of the army.
 
Morale isn't going to save the Confederacy at that point...and the 7000 casulties at Franklin for little to no gain did more damage to morale than Cleburne's death. Nashville probably would have gone the same way it did historically. Only difference is maybe Cleburne gets Corps or even army command and leads the AoT at Bentonville, but that force is already ridiculously depleted (the AoT in total at Bentonville numbered around 5000 men).
Also, keep in mind, Cleburne isn't the only commander killed in the battle. Many brigade and regiment commanders were cut down. Yes, Cleburne was a good commander, and quite popular with his troops. But that would not counteract the affect on the rest of the army.
That's true. However, what if some magical coincidence kept all 7 of those brigade-division commanders alive during the rebel's time of need? Would the sudden command somehow hold the army together?
 
That's true. However, what if some magical coincidence kept all 7 of those brigade-division commanders alive during the rebel's time of need? Would the sudden command somehow hold the army together?
Again, even with the commanders surviving, the plain casaulties is enough to leave the army crippled.
Hood could not have won the campaign after 4pm, 30th November, 1864. After that point, the campaign is all but decided, merely the details.
And if the Army of Tennessee doesn't completely collapse at Nashville, its not gonna hold. And its not gonna be able to affect the outcome of the war.
 
Again, even with the commanders surviving, the plain casaulties is enough to leave the army crippled.
Hood could not have won the campaign after 4pm, 30th November, 1864. After that point, the campaign is all but decided, merely the details.
And if the Army of Tennessee doesn't completely collapse at Nashville, its not gonna hold. And its not gonna be able to affect the outcome of the war.
You've got a good point.
 
C. What would have happened if the Union didn't cross the Chickahominy River instead of marching off to Gaines' Mill?
Can you clarify this one? I'm not sure I understand the question, because the Union army went:

Mid-May: all north of the Chickahominy
Up to 31 May: 3rd and 4th Corps cross
Seven Pines: 2nd Corps crosses
Mid-June: 6th Corps crosses, 5th Corps is left north of the Chickahominy
June 26: Confederate attacks threaten 5th Corps and the Union supply line north of the Chickahominy
June 27: 5th Corps pulls back to their fallback position at Gaines Mill and is reinforced (those reinforcements are the only Union troops who cross the Chickahominy moving north), but defeated and retires south of the Chickahominy.
 
F. At Antietam/Sharpsburg, what if A.P. Hill didn't arrive when he did?
It's hard to get this happening, but it's functionally the same as Burnside moving earlier really.
What you have is the advance of 9th Corps (probably with Sykes paralleling them on their right) damaging the integrity of the Confederate position; Lee may have enough reconstructed reserves to throw in to stabilize the situation, but McClellan was preparing an attack in the north with some of Slocum and Morell's divisions. Combined, you probably have the Confederates pulling in their left and throwing everything in on their right, and falling back in disorder and disruption to the ford.

It wouldn't necessarily destroy the Confederate army, but it'd inflict very heavy casualties.
 
E. What if Maj. Gen. McClellan instead of Maj. Gen. Pope commanded the Union combined forces at 2nd Bull Run/Manassas?
If you mean the campaign as a whole, it probably goes considerably better because McClellan isn't effectively delusional (there might not be a battle actually on the historical battlefield at all, depending on when McClellan actually takes command). This would be an interesting thing to game out depending on the assumptions involved.
 
N. What would happen at the theoretical Battle of Washington?
O. What would happen at the theoretical Battle of Richmond?
These depend heavily on the assumptions. But as one example, there's an alternate possibility for the Seven Days where another division or two is sent to McClellan and he can secure his right flank. This would lead to McClellan being able to post artillery on the heights over Richmond and batter a way through the forts for his infantry, and if Lee decided to defend Richmond the result would probably be called "the Battle of Richmond" and end with a Union victory.
 
Can you clarify this one? I'm not sure I understand the question, because the Union army went:

Mid-May: all north of the Chickahominy
Up to 31 May: 3rd and 4th Corps cross
Seven Pines: 2nd Corps crosses
Mid-June: 6th Corps crosses, 5th Corps is left north of the Chickahominy
June 26: Confederate attacks threaten 5th Corps and the Union supply line north of the Chickahominy
June 27: 5th Corps pulls back to their fallback position at Gaines Mill and is reinforced (those reinforcements are the only Union troops who cross the Chickahominy moving north), but defeated and retires south of the Chickahominy.
What I meant was "What if the Union 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th Corps did not re-cross the Chickahominy and all troops were combined into one army instead of each corps marching individually, and went into the battle of Gaines Mill together." Or, simply "What if McClellan sent the whole AoP into Gaines Mill."
 
What I meant was "What if the Union 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th Corps did not re-cross the Chickahominy and all troops were combined into one army instead of each corps marching individually, and went into the battle of Gaines Mill together." Or, simply "What if McClellan sent the whole AoP into Gaines Mill."
Just so it'll help out, I'll quickly summarize the positions that the Union army held before the Seven Days and at Gaines Mill, to explain why I'm still not 100% sure what your proposal here is.


Union positions at the opening of the Seven Days:

Oak_Grove.jpg



So this is the situation as of Oak Grove (day one of the Seven Days). McClellan has 2nd, 3rd and 6th Corps facing Richmond and on the attack, with the weaker 4th Corps (5 brigades instead of 6) spread out with part covering the bridges and part in his battle line.
5th Corps (stronger as it has three divisions) is north of the river.

Jackson comes down from the north and Porter pulls back to Gaines Mill, ths:

gaines_mill.jpg

Meanwhile, Magruder (commanding south of the river) has been ordered to launch demonstrations, and to convert them into real attacks if McClellan strips his lines too much.

So the basic answer is that there are only so many men McClellan can send into the fighting north of the Chickahominy without things going wrong south of the river. If he does send too many men to Gaines Mill, then his line south of the Chickahominy breaks and he's in a very, very bad situation - especially since even before Gaines Mill the Confederates were en route to hit his supply base.

If McClellan had been able to hold out at Gaines Mill but at the cost of his line collapsing south of the Chickahominy, he is in a very bad spot as he has no supply line and an opposed crossing of the Chickahominy between him and his nearest way of re-establishing one; he'll probably have to retreat east until he can re-establish his supply line, and if the ships at the supply base have evacuated to the James (which they historically did) then he's got no supply ships to establish contact with.
 
I have enough trouble remembering the things that DID happen so I doubt I'll be speculating much on things that DIDN'T.
 
I have enough trouble remembering the things that DID happen so I doubt I'll be speculating much on things that DIDN'T.
Might not be the forum for you, then... though it's worth realizing that this kind of calculation is what was going on in the heads of just about everyone in army command, albeit not necessarily to the same level of detail. It explains a huge amount about the actions of just about everyone.
 
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