What If...

[Moose]

Just for the sake of discussion...the South was able to succeed. Would it have been able to survive long as a nation?

 

[KeyserSoze]

Probably. Davis could have used the threat of a vindictive United States to continue his control and unite the squabbling states against a common enemy.

 

[Mark F. Jenkins]

It would depend heavily upon the circumstances of its success. Napoleon III would have liked to have traded recognition of the South and intervention to halt the war with the Southwestern areas taken from Mexico during the Mexican War, as well as possibly Texas (or at least an independent Texas). A French-supported imperial Mexico would not have been a very comfortable neighbor.

 

[ErnieMac]

I don't know why not. There are quite a few countries with less going for them that have survived for centuries.

 

[John Winn]

We've had this discussion before but I'll add that "succeed" is to me not the same as "survive." So, I suppose the Confederacy could have somehow pulled off secession - e.g. forced a truce, got European assistance - and become a nation but I don't think they'd have been real successful at nationhood. Limited population (free persons), limited resources, limited industry and railroads, weak government, outdated economic system ... and so on.

 

[Allie]

I don't think the US would have been able to tolerate the competition for land. Remember that slave owners wanting to expand into the new states was the reason for the argument over slavery in the first place. Any peace would have been more of an opportunity for the US to regroup, arm, and try again.

 

[Nathanb1]

Just for the sake of discussion...the South was able to succeed. Would it have been able to survive long as a nation?

Moose, I'm moving this to the "What If....." forum (we have a nice one!).

Posted in Capacity as Moderator

 

[Moose]

Moose, I'm moving this to the "What If....." forum (we have a nice one!).

Posted in Capacity as Moderator

Thank you!

 

[Moose]

I do remember reading how frustrated Jefferson Davis became at the various state governments refusing to work together. States rights taken to an extreme I suppose. I recall one example being the textile rich Carolinas making uniforms for their state and not others. I would need to go read again for the exact issues. Jefferson Davis made the observation that if the Confederacy fails it should be written on it's tombstone : Died of an experiment.

That being said, the start of any nation is a tenuous affair. Thanks for your interesting comments, this is how I learn best.

 

[Hannah]

It is an interesting question to ponder.

Building a new nation from the ground up would be an incredibly difficult thing to do. Then you've got the question of trade, property, free persons vs. slaves, and more. These things would have to be worked out for the nation not only to succeed but to survive.

Then you've got alliances and the rest of history. How would the Great Depression affect them? What about the world wars? There's so much to cover and wonder about.

 

[Allie]

It's also worth pondering how long slavery would have lasted in the Confederacy. Mary Chesnut was of the opinion that the war would end slavery whether the south won or lost, but I doubt that.

 

[CSA Today]

Just for the sake of discussion...the South was able to succeed. Would it have been able to survive long as a nation?

The more apropos question to ask is if the Confederate States had defeated the United States and won its independence how long would it be before the four Border States decided to go with the winner?

 

[John Winn]

It's also worth pondering how long slavery would have lasted in the Confederacy. Mary Chesnut was of the opinion that the war would end slavery whether the south won or lost, but I doubt that.

I've also contemplated that and while I agree that the end of the war probably wouldn't have been the end of slavery (i.e. with a Confederate victory or draw) I don't think it would have been a viable system for more than one more generation after the war. Mechanization and the reduction in plantation agriculture would have killed it if nothing else I think. It needed to expand into areas where large-scale, labor-intensive enterprises - almost certainly agriculture or perhaps mining - were tenable and I just don't see the Confederacy capturing significant foreign domains for that.

Edited to add: We might also wonder what would have happened to slavery in the Union. It's elimination was really tied to winning the war. Would there have been as much of a push to eliminate it in the Union slave states if the war had not been won ? We'd have been talking about a vastly smaller number of slaves in only a few states. It might have just been left to die on the vine by state actions and that might have taken another generation or so also methinks.

 

[John Winn]

The more apropos question to ask is if the Confederate States had defeated the United States and won its independence how long would it be before the four Border States decided to go with the winner?

You and I were posting at the same time so just saw this. Yes, that is a good question. I tend to think that if they didn't go in the first place they'd have stayed with the Union. On the other hand, Kentucky refused to end slavery until forced to do so and maybe they'd have left if they thought it would be eliminated and they had a viable choice. I'm not sure about that really. Will have to give it some grey matter.

 

[Carronade]

I don't think the US would have been able to tolerate the competition for land. Remember that slave owners wanting to expand into the new states was the reason for the argument over slavery in the first place. Any peace would have been more of an opportunity for the US to regroup, arm, and try again.

Maybe.....when they were part of the US, naturally they looked to United States territories for expansion. The territories, especially in the south, were not actually that suitable for southern slave-based agriculture - or much else, Arizona and New Mexico were the last of the 48 states to be settled and established.

There was also a desire to create new slave states, or block the creation of free states, to maintain a semblance of balance in the US Senate, which would no longer be an issue for an independent Confederacy.

Before the war, many expansion-minded southerners had looked to Cuba or Latin America, and that could just as easily be the focus for an expansion-minded Confederacy. Presumably the war would have ended with some demarcation of territory; they might find going south an easier path for growth than restarting hostilities with the Union.

 

[ErnieMac]

The more apropos question to ask is if the Confederate States had defeated the United States and won its independence how long would it be before the four Border States decided to go with the winner?

I think the answer to that would depend on how and when the Confederate States obtained their independence. Outright Confederate victory in the autumn of 1862 would seem different than the Union saying its just not worth the effort in December 1864.

 

[ole]

The more apropos question to ask is if the Confederate States had defeated the United States and won its independence how long would it be before the four Border States decided to go with the winner?

I doubt Kentucky and Maryland would have joined the Confederacy even if it were victorious -- the plantation influence simply wasn't strong enough. Are you counting Delaware and Missouri in that question? Those four states were bound economically with the states immediately to their North.

It's an excellent question, but I have to believe that they'd have adhered to the Union.

 

[Jamieva]

Based on the lack of response to Lee's army when it marched into Maryland as he had hoped then I would say Maryland would have stayed in the Union.

Keep in mind the reason the south wanted to expand slavery to other new territories is because they needed that land. Cotton as a crop is extremely tough on the soil. So you need new areas to move into. If the south wins it's independence and it is confined to the states that broke away in 1861, the economy would have collapsed due to the crop yield of cotton dropping.

I would also agree with Moose that even during the war the states themselves wanted to be very independent of each other. getting them all to work together even in peacetime would've been a process and I'm not sure Davis was the man to pull that off.

 

[CSA Today]

Based on the lack of response to Lee's army when it marched into Maryland as he had hoped then I would say Maryland would have stayed in the Union.

Keep in mind the reason the south wanted to expand slavery to other new territories is because they needed that land. Cotton as a crop is extremely tough on the soil. So you need new areas to move into. If the south wins it's independence and it is confined to the states that broke away in 1861, the economy would have collapsed due to the crop yield of cotton dropping.

I would also agree with Moose that even during the war the states themselves wanted to be very independent of each other. getting them all to work together even in peacetime would've been a process and I'm not sure Davis was the man to pull that off.

The South wanted to expand slavery into the western territories for political rather than economic reasons while still in the old union. An independent Confederacy would have had no economic reason to expand slavery into an area unsuitable for cotton cultivation due either to climate or aridity without modern irrigation.

 

[Allie]

The South wanted to expand slavery into the western territories for political rather than economic reasons while still in the old union. An independent Confederacy would have had no economic reason to expand slavery into an area unsuitable for cotton cultivation due either to climate or aridity without modern irrigation.

A little of both - in the case of the people of West Tennessee, almost every family had removed three times in four generations as their land was exhausted and their numbers increased. Although the crop in West Tennessee was mostly cotton, many of these families had been tobacco and rice farmers in Virginia and the Carolinas, so the idea of changing their cash crop wouldn't have been alien. Many Lauderdale county families would remove West in the generation after the war, to Texas and Arkansas - some already had relatives out West at the time of the war, who had taken their slaves.

It's also clear from southern speeches before the war that population pressure among slaves was another specific fear.