Union victory in 62

[atlantis]

There was a lot of hope in spring of 1862 that if Richmond was taken the war would be over with a union victory. Was this fair to the generals/Lincoln ? was there a real chance for victory in 62 or was the public being mislead by media, opposition politicians.

 

[Leftyhunter1962]

There was a lot of hope in spring of 1862 that if Richmond was taken the war would be over with a union victory. Was this fair to the generals/Lincoln ? was there a real chance for victory in 62 or was the public being mislead by media, opposition politicians.

Hypothetical's are impossible to prove or disprove.No doubt the Confederacy would of been in bad shape if McCellen siezed Richmond.
Leftyhunter

 

[atlantis]

Hypothetical's are impossible to prove or disprove.No doubt the Confederacy would of been in bad shape if McCellen siezed Richmond.
Leftyhunter

Lefty if we only knew what people knew in spring of 1862 would it be reasonable on our part to think taking Richmond for example would bring quick victory for the union.

 

[Leftyhunter1962]

Lefty if we only knew what people knew in spring of 1862 would it be reasonable on our part to think taking Richmond for example would bring quick victory for the union.

No one in 1862 could know what the outcome of a hypothetical victory in seizing Richmond.
One can't prove or disprove a hypothetical proposition.
Leftyhunter

 

[trice]

IMHO, if Richmond had fallen in mid-1862, the Confederacy would have been in very bad shape with a good chance the organized rebellion would have fallen apart by the end of the year.

There are several strong reasons for this:

• the Confederacy had started out by creating three centers for war production:
  • Richmond, centered around the Tredegar works
  • New Orleans (fell to Farragut April 29)
  • Nashville (fell to Grant/Buell on February 25)
  • If Richmond falls, essentially all of the new war production industry being organized is lost.
• Operationally and strategically, the Richmond position is a both choke-point for a defense of the Confederate Atlantic seaboard and a springboard for an advance on the Union.
  • as long as the Confederacy holds Richmond, any Union overland advance into the Carolinas is blocked
  • as long as the Confederacy holds Richmond, it can be used to support forces above it attacking Washington/MD/PA
  • McClellan's plan for a follow-up to capturing Richmond was to load a large force aboard ships and move down the coast to take Wilmington/Charleston/Savannah while threatening an overland advance along the axis Raleigh-Fayetteville-Florence-Columbia (reverse of Sherman's route in 1865)
• Occupation of most of Virginia will almost surely follow with the associated loss of resources and manpower greatly weakening the Confederate Army
• the blow to morale involved with a string of devastating defeats from the Atlantic to the Mississippi will reduce recruiting/conscripting manpower while increasing losses to desertion
• chances of a Union concentration clearing the Mississippi in 1862 increase greatly
• hopes of foreign intervention and/or assistance would be dead
• Union blockade efficiency increases quickly due to freeing resources in Virginia and Union attacks on port

So, assuming Richmond falls around late June or early July (maybe Johnston actually does simply abandon the place as McDowell arrives and McClellan takes Richmond the way he took Yorktown), the Confederate force has to pull back south towards NC or west towards Lynchburg. The northern end of the Shenandoah will surely fall, perhaps very far down if the main Confederate force falls back on Raleigh/Wilmington. Memphis and Corinth having already fallen, the only possible good news for the Confederacy would have to come from Braxton Bragg (would he invade Kentucky as he did in real life and how would that turn out now?)

 

[mofederal]

I don't think there was any way the war would have ended in 1862. McClellan wasn't the man to end the war, they needed a real fighter to end the war, and in 1862, they didn't have one. They had several people with potential, who needed time to develop their talents.

 

[trice]

I don't think there was any way the war would have ended in 1862. McClellan wasn't the man to end the war, they needed a real fighter to end the war, and in 1862, they didn't have one. They had several people with potential, who needed time to develop their talents.

I'm not much of a McClellan-as-battle-commander fan. I don't see him as the type of commander to drive the Rebels to destruction, but he might not need to be after Richmond falls. Routine military competence by the Union might be able to end the war (or most of it) quickly after Richmond fell.

My point is that a loss of Richmond that early cripples the military-industrial development of "the South", loses them what are arguably the most important cities (and largest) they have, opens up their heartland to invasion, probably loses all chance of foreign assistance, and probably losing most of the resources in Virginia to the Confederate cause.

The Confederate command structure is in bad shape if all this happens. Their political structure would be quaking and trembling. To find as bad a situation in the American Revolution, you'd have to look at December of 1776, when Washington was running across New Jersey for the Delaware River. "These are the times that try men's souls ..." Thomas Paine said. Asked by a friend at this time , in the dark of December, what he would do if the Revolution dissolved, Washington said he would go to the wilderness of Kentucky with whoever would follow him and continue the fight.

The Rebel high command at this time is Jefferson Davis, Joe Johnston, Bragg, and E. Kirby Smith. Robert E. Lee is a staff officer, regarded as a failure by many or as the "King of Spades". Jackson is a hero after the Valley Campaign, but still junior. With everything falling apart, the Confederates would have had no obvious equivalent to George Washington.

Starting at Christmas, 1776, Washington in 10 days created the dazzling victories at Trenton and Princeton. In far-off Prussia, Frederick the Great would comment on the brilliance of that turn-around.

Could Lee become what Washington did? I admire Lee, but I don't think he was capable of being that man, just as I don't think Jefferson Davis was capable of being Abraham Lincoln. With Richmond falling in mid-1862, the Confederacy needed a Washington to survive; even if they had one, things would look very grim.

 

[OpnCoronet]

IMHO, if Richmond had fallen in mid-1862, the Confederacy would have been in very bad shape with a good chance the organized rebellion would have fallen apart by the end of the year.

There are several strong reasons for this:

• the Confederacy had started out by creating three centers for war production:
  • Richmond, centered around the Tredegar works
  • New Orleans (fell to Farragut April 29)
  • Nashville (fell to Grant/Buell on February 25)
  • If Richmond falls, essentially all of the new war production industry being organized is lost.
• defeats from the Atlantic to the Mississippi will reduce dead
• Union blockade efficiency increases quickly due to freeing resources in Virginia and Union attacks on port

This post really highlights just how disastrous, was McClellan;'s defeat on the Peninsula.

Strategically, everything was falling into place for the Union, until Seven Pines and the coming of Lee.

 

[Dilandu]

In theory - yes. Union have all required resources, and the strategy to hit Richmond from peninsula was correct. But planning is only the half of problem; the other is implementation. And here the whole situation descended into embarrasing stalemate.

the Confederacy had started out by creating three centers for war production:

• Richmond, centered around the Tredegar works
• New Orleans (fell to Farragut April 29)
• Nashville (fell to Grant/Buell on February 25)
• If Richmond falls, essentially all of the new war production industry being organized is lost.

Exactly. The Tredegar Iron Works were the only major industrial node in all Confederacy; the only factory, capable of producing machinery and tools in any significant amounts. The loss of TIW would not only greatly hamper the Confederacy weapon production, but also would made any increase in weapon and ordnance production elsewhere impossible - because other factories depended on machinery & tools from Tredegar.

 

[trice]

This post really highlights just how disastrous, was McClellan;'s defeat on the Peninsula.

Strategically, everything was falling into place for the Union, until Seven Pines and the coming of Lee.

Yes, that's about it.

In late June of 1862, Kentucky and Tennessee has essentially been lost to the Yankees after an embarrassing series of defeats (Mill Springs, Henry & Donelson, Nashville, Island No. 10, Shiloh, Corinth, the naval Battle of Memphis). Farragut has taken New Orleans and Baton Rouge, was bombarding Vicksburg (June 26-28) and looking for ways to take the town. Halleck had an army of 100,000 concentrated in western TN with Bragg down in Tupelo and Beauregard relieved/sick. Charleston was blockaded and under attack. Burnside had cleared a good part of the North Carolina coast.

The only glimmers of hope: Jackson's Valley Campaign and the Battle of Secessionville outside Charleston.

Complain as we might about McClellan's actions on the Peninsula and the Lincoln/Stanton fiasco around the Valley, by late June McDowell is approaching Richmond from the North and McClellan is knocking on the door to Richmond from the East. Another week and they would surely be linked up. Lee's attack was the only thing that prevented that in history. If Johnston is not wounded and replaced -- or if Lee replaces Johnston but his attack fails -- then the Union will clamp down on Richmond with an iron grip. If the Rebels let that happen, Richmond likely will fall: this is exactly the situation McClellan would want, regular approaches to the city where his artillery power and Engineers could do the work of winning for him.

If McClellan can beat Lee in the field, or simply not get driven away from McDowell, the Rebel position will rapidly fall apart. McClellan is in a position to besiege Richmond as Grant did in 1864-65 starting two years earlier. If he can take Petersburg, the Rebels will be starved out (as Lee was) With the Rebels penned up in Richmond, Washington can be drawn on for reinforcements and Burnside can be brought up from the NC coast. (Now if only Stanton hadn't suspended the recruiting service that Spring ...)

Without Lee's victory in the Seven Days and his follow-up campaign to 2nd Manassas, the situation would be very dark for the Confederacy.