You have a well reasoned opinion. I kind of thought the same but on balance? I don't know enough to make that comparison.
Here's Grant's opinion on it. The Lost Cause was already pumping Jackson up to exaggerated proportions. While not disparaging him at all, and frankly seeming at times nostalgic talking of a dead man, a youthful friend he once knew, Grant tried to paint a more realistic picture.
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Ultimately, we don't know how Jackson would have done later. Early however, cannot evade the responsibility for his actions. Part of his responsibility was using his best judgement and his forces to the best effect. He misjudged Sheridan and squandered his army. As you said, his defeat even helped Lincoln's reelection when things had been looking so tough for Lincoln and the public was so war weary. He didn't grasp that the burden was on Sheridan to conquer him, not the reverse. He should have been acting more cautiously.
I think the public fallout he faced is the consequence of the civilian population not appreciating that he had attracted the Federals attention, such that they never would have gone there and been burning things except for Early's activities that resulted in no material benefit and instead caused much destruction. It doesn't matter ultimately to public perception all the good intentions, etc. Public perception can be cruel in that regard but it must be accounted for.
What benefits were obtained from all that? What had worked against McClellan, McDowell, and a slew of political generals, including Lincoln, Halleck and Stanton who tried to conduct the war from a desk in 1862 was not going to work against Grant and Sheridan. When we talk about the changing conditions that has to be accounted for.
When Lee decided to surrender at Appomattox he cited several reasons for rejecting a guerrilla war. One was that he was too old for it. The other was that it would inevitably get the federals to burn and destroy property to root the guerrillas out from wherever they were hiding and in that way bring much destruction to areas that were still untouched by the war. I think that Lee learned from the Jubal Early experience in the valley. And that experience had been negative had generated pushback from the civilian population. What's worse it didn't even prevent Early's defeat or men deserting him.