If not Lincoln...

[neyankee61]

A while back I posted a thread entitle If not Davis...so it seemed logical to post this one. Not a big fan of "what ifs" but it is interesting to think of what the outcome would have been if Lincoln was not a possible choice at the Rep. Convention in Chicago. In the movie "Lincoln" the question was posed about people being chosen for the time. To continue the "What if".....What if Lincoln won the senate election against Douglas and was content with that? What if Anne Rutledge didn't die and Lincoln married her. Perhaps he becomes a successful merchant. Or Anne dies and Lincoln in a fit of melancholy commits suicide? If not Lincoln...
Let's look at the candidates
William Seward Senator and Governor of NY, the odds on favorite but one with numerous enemies. Could these enemies unite behind someone else?
Edward Bates a border state old style Whigs, could find support from those Whigs who joined the Rep. Party
Salmon Chase Ohio Senator former Dem and darling of the abolitionists
John McLean SCOTUS justice, had much support in the 1848 Whig and 1856 Rep. Conventions
John Fremont Rep. candidate in 1856
Simon Cameron, Party boss of PA, a state needed to elect a president.
Any one else?

 

[breckod]

You've mentioned the most prominent candidates, for sure. Jacob Collamer of Vermont and William Dayton of New Jersey got a handful of ballots in 1860 as well, and Cassius Clay and Ben Wade also had their names in the mix. They were all unlikely but hey, anything can happen in a deadlocked convention.

The most probable outcome of no Lincoln being there, IMO, is that Seward would win.

 

[shooter too]

What if J.Wilkes Booth had broken his neck 5 yrs. previous after missing his mark and fallen into an orchastra pit?

 

[breckod]

What if J.Wilkes Booth had broken his neck 5 yrs. previous after missing his mark and fallen into an orchastra pit?

Or, for that matter, what if Andrew Johnson's would-be assassin hadn't lost his nerve?

In any case, I think the question asked also invites the related question of whether we think a non-Lincoln Republican would have won in 1860, or even if they would have just been less likely to do so. Depending on your view of Lincoln's wartime performance, I think the question is arguably quite significant to how important we think Lincoln is.