Confederate "Valkyrie Plot"

[OldReliable1862]

In February 1864, Colonel Ulric Dahlgren led an attempted cavalry raid on Richmond, which failed due to the prompt reaction of local militia and regular troops. Papers discovered on Dahlgren's person revealed that their ultimate mission was the assassination of President Davis and his cabinet.

Davis had numerous difficulties with politicians who took issue with his policies. Assuming Davis did something rash, such as accepting the Cleburne proposal at Robert E. Lee's and Judah P. Benjamin's recommendation, could this be enough to get an attempt by Davis' opponents to remove him from power and seek peace with the Union, provided slavery is protected? If the plotters open channels with the Union, they could agree to launch their coup at the same time Dahlgren makes his raid upon the capital.

Whether or not the plotters are successful, there will be some pretty important butterflies. If Dahlgren's raid still fails and the papers are discovered implicating major figures in the Confederate government, the reactions of the people of seeing several politicians attempt to topple the government after said government attempted to enlist black troops could be unpredictable.

If the plot succeeds, who knows if all the soldiers and citizenry will accept the new government and rejoining the Union.

Some likely suspects for this plot could include:
Vice President Alexander H. Stephens
Senator Robert A. Toombs
Senator Louis T. Wigfall
Governor Joseph E. Brown
Governor Zebulon B. Vance
Major General Howell Cobb (he was a rival of Toombs, so I don't know if he would be included)

Does anyone know who was commanding the Department of Richmond at the time? (@GELongstreet?) John H. Winder was Provost Marshal of Richmond, he could probably be helpful.

If Brown or Vance withdraw the troops on their coasts, it could very well end the war.

 

[Luke Freet]

Does anyone know who was commanding the Department of Richmond at the time?

I believe it was Henry Wise. I know Beauregard was in command in Southern Virginia and North Carolina Departments, which held command over most of the forces in the area. I am not well versed on Beauregard and his relation with Davis, though given how Davis kept removing him from field commands earlier in the war.

 

[OldReliable1862]

I believe it was Henry Wise. I know Beauregard was in command in Southern Virginia and North Carolina Departments, which held command over most of the forces in the area. I am not well versed on Beauregard and his relation with Davis, though given how Davis kept removing him from field commands earlier in the war.

Thanks, I looked it up and apparently it was Arnold Elzey. I don't know how well he got along with the administration.

 

[Horrido67]

seek peace with the Union, provided slavery is protected

This was the very problem. Lincoln committed to anti-slavery causes and as far as I know he never backed down on his election promise that his government would ban slavery in Federal territories. The best thing Lincoln could offer was something like the Corwin amendment which would guarantee slavery only within slave states, not in Federal territories and giving the rebels a chance to veto the 13th amendment.

I didn't matter whether Howell Cobb, Robert A. Tomb or even Alexander H. Stephens who was a friend and a Whig colleague of Abe Lincoln. The Confederacy wanted at least full federal protection to slavery in federal territories and the 16th President of the United States resolved not to offer that. There was no room for any kind of deal.

 

[Pollaco]

I had intended to jump into this discussion until I saw that it was a "what if". The Kilpatrick/ Dahlgren Raid was one of a interesting mysterys of the Civil War. So just discuss away, nothing will be solved.

 

[Harms88]

What is often overlooked I feel is that no matter how early the South returned to the US, the US government would have taken steps to ensure that they were punished for rebelling, and prevent secession, at best a really weak right of individual states, from every happening again. Even though Lincoln was willing to allow them an easier time at reconstruction, he still believed that it would need to happen.

So let's say Davis is removed and Stephens gains power. Stephens had actually spent the majority of his time out of Richmond as he and Davis couldn't get along. So I don't think he'd have the network of political allies that could make up for his own weakness of personality that seems to have plagued him.

I could also see at the very least Governor Joseph Brown of Georgia attempting to break away from the Confederacy if there was an attempted peaceful reintegration with the US. He wanted a South where not only could they keep slavery, but also had the rights of the state having the overwhelming majority of power. He threatened on several occasions seceding from the Confederacy when Davis tried to exert more central authority.

So the best outcome would be that the Confederacy splinters, perhaps between Deep South and Upper Southern states, with the Upper States perhaps being more willing to find an end as they had born the brunt of the fighting than the Deep South. Or, perhaps fragmenting into more, like a new Republic of Texas with Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas (those parts still free of occupation) becoming their own nation.