Civil War "What ifs?"

[RobertC]

I'm already starting with one to pull at your brain and one for others to groan. What if the Confederate line at Chancellorsville recognised Jackson and his returning men, and did not fire? Stonewall Jackson survives Chancellorsville and is not replaced by James Longstreet. He would be Lee's right hand man at Gettysburg. Could the war have ended differently?

 

[thomas aagaard]

I'm already starting with one to pull at your brain and one for others to groan. What if the Confederate line at Chancellorsville recognised Jackson and his returning men, and did not fire? Stonewall Jackson survives Chancellorsville and is not replaced by James Longstreet. He would be Lee's right hand man at Gettysburg. Could the war have ended differently?

Jackson was never Lee's right hand man.
Longstreet was.

Jackson was good at one thing. Moving troops from A to B at the operational level.
As Chancellorsville showed.

Tactically he was not even average.. again as Chancellorsville showed.
He lost control of his attack and then ended up getting himself killed doing the job of a LT or captain.

Also not attacking on the evening of the 1st of july was the correct decision.
No way to get the attack going in time to achieve much, Any attack from the west would have hit a fresh federal brigade and a lot of artillery. And a attack from the north would have been flanked by federals coming up from the east.

 

[RedRover]

General Grant was a personal friend of Gen. Jackson. He responded to suggestions Lee might have won at Gettysburg with Jackson on hand as follows..., viz. Jackson died before he got a real opportunity for greatness, though his personal determination suggested to Grant he would have made much use of his lessons at Chancellorsville had he survived that battle.... That said, he questions whether Jackson's skill levels (so far as demonstrated through his fall) might have been effective against the likes of General Meade, etc.

So, something on that score, some Southerners post-war suggested Gettysburg MIGHT have been Jackson's greatest opportunity for success in battle had he lived to see it... lamenting his absence somewhat as follows...

or,

General John B. Gordon had been foremost among those making such a suggestion in his own memoirs...

But these suggestions are predicated upon the assumption that the Union war effort hinged on success in the Battle of Gettysburg, which is questionable. Meade's chief of Artillery, General Hunt, noted postwar that Meade's plans were arranged with the possibility of defeat in mind, and contingencies in such a case allowed for. Meade intended to defend along Pipe Creek before the battle, and during its course considered the possibility of yet falling back to it...

And according to Gen. Hunt, even if somehow defeated along Pipe Creek, Meade had a continency of how to fall back from there, drawing on reinforcements and supplies as he went to gain in strength while General Lee's army weakened...



What did General Lee think? He evidently made his opinion clear on the subject, that Jackson's death was a considerable blow to him and his army, an irreparable loss so far as Lee could see, but he called on his officers and men to act with a like spirit to Jackson's...

What Lee lamented as irreparably lost, was the fall of a junior who placed implicit trust in him and his orders... (from an 1863 notice):

Even Lee though notes that if his orders could be done, Jackson would see to it. There is also the question of whether Lee's orders at Gettysburg could have been carried out to the letter.


All that said, Lee referred to Jackson as his "right arm" which acted upon his commands implicitly...

Lee referred to Gen. Longstreet as his "warhorse." This was in a manner because he had to ride him and spur him to action... to which he responded magnificently...

 

[13 IL Cav & 64 GA Inf]

General Grant was a personal friend of Gen. Jackson. He responded to suggestions Lee might have won at Gettysburg with Jackson on hand as follows..., viz. Jackson died before he got a real opportunity for greatness, though his personal determination suggested to Grant he would have made much use of his lessons at Chancellorsville had he survived that battle.... That said, he questions whether Jackson's skill levels (so far as demonstrated through his fall) might have been effective against the likes of General Meade, etc.

View attachment 530347
View attachment 530348
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So, something on that score, some Southerners post-war suggested Gettysburg MIGHT have been Jackson's greatest opportunity for success in battle had he lived to see it... lamenting his absence somewhat as follows...

View attachment 530351

or,

View attachment 530352

General John B. Gordon had been foremost among those making such a suggestion in his own memoirs...

View attachment 530356


But these suggestions are predicated upon the assumption that the Union war effort hinged on success in the Battle of Gettysburg, which is questionable. Meade's chief of Artillery, General Hunt, noted postwar that Meade's plans were arranged with the possibility of defeat in mind, and contingencies in such a case allowed for. Meade intended to defend along Pipe Creek before the battle, and during its course considered the possibility of yet falling back to it...

And according to Gen. Hunt, even if somehow defeated along Pipe Creek, Meade had a continency of how to fall back from there, drawing on reinforcements and supplies as he went to gain in strength while General Lee's army weakened...



What did General Lee think? He evidently made his opinion clear on the subject, that Jackson's death was a considerable blow to him and his army, an irreparable loss so far as Lee could see, but he called on his officers and men to act with a like spirit to Jackson's...

View attachment 530353

What Lee lamented as irreparably lost, was the fall of a junior who placed implicit trust in him and his orders... (from an 1863 notice):

View attachment 530354

Even Lee though notes that if his orders could be done, Jackson would see to it. There is also the question of whether Lee's orders at Gettysburg could have been carried out to the letter.


All that said, Lee referred to Jackson as his "right arm" which acted upon his commands implicitly...

View attachment 530358

Lee referred to Gen. Longstreet as his "warhorse." This was in a manner because he had to ride him and spur him to action... to which he responded magnificently...

View attachment 530359

Well done, @RedRover!

 

[Josh The Lighthouse Guy]

If Jackson isn't shot at Chancellorsville, the Confederates are unlikely to be making a decision about attacking Cemetery Hill late on July 1.

Lee had already considered a third corps, but would he have pulled that figurative trigger if the fateful literal trigger had not pulled and forced his hand?

Perhaps Lee decides that, though he needs to divide up his army into more than two corps, he simply can't make one guy the obvious third wheel and inferior junior partner to Jackson and Longstreet. So, instead of three corps of three divisions each, Lee makes four corps of two divisions each, with Jackson and Longstreet as wing commanders (2 corps per wing). I don't know if Lee ever actually considered this possibility IRL, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.

If Jackson is in the Ewell role of a three-corps ANV, does Hill still have the third corps? Maybe Ewell gets the position instead of Hill and doesn't start a general engagement on July ?

Stuart, who was interested in an infantry corps command, was the one man who could stand as Longstreet's and Jackson's equal in a three corps command structure. With Jackson not being wounded, Stuart doesn't temporarily command infantry at Chancellorsville. With Stuart as the third corps commander, Stuart's controversial raid never occurs and Stuart's prejudice against certain cavalry brigade commanders no longer dictates disposition of the ANV cavalry.

There is also a theory that Stonewall was in the early stages of pneumonia when he was shot and might have died anyway.

There are a lot of butterflies flapping wings on this, despite the short time frame.

 

[bankerpapaw]

I'm already starting with one to pull at your brain and one for others to groan. What if the Confederate line at Chancellorsville recognised Jackson and his returning men, and did not fire? Stonewall Jackson survives Chancellorsville and is not replaced by James Longstreet. He would be Lee's right hand man at Gettysburg. Could the war have ended differently?

Had Jackson survived, he would have taken "that hill" at Gettysburg.

 

[Wizard of Cozz]

Had Jackson survived, he would have taken "that hill" at Gettysburg.

If he had survived their would of been 2 corps not 3, and the whole situation would of been different. Most likely Longstreet coming into Gettysburg from Cashtown, with Jackson coming down from the North, OR all Jackson corps converging on gettysburg, with Longstreet behind whoever is coming in from Cashtown.

 

[Wizard of Cozz]

If Jackson isn't shot at Chancellorsville, the Confederates are unlikely to be making a decision about attacking Cemetery Hill late on July 1.

Lee had already considered a third corps, but would he have pulled that figurative trigger if the fateful literal trigger had not pulled and forced his hand?

Perhaps Lee decides that, though he needs to divide up his army into more than two corps, he simply can't make one guy the obvious third wheel and inferior junior partner to Jackson and Longstreet. So, instead of three corps of three divisions each, Lee makes four corps of two divisions each, with Jackson and Longstreet as wing commanders (2 corps per wing). I don't know if Lee ever actually considered this possibility IRL, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.

If Jackson is in the Ewell role of a three-corps ANV, does Hill still have the third corps? Maybe Ewell gets the position instead of Hill and doesn't start a general engagement on July ?

Stuart, who was interested in an infantry corps command, was the one man who could stand as Longstreet's and Jackson's equal in a three corps command structure. With Jackson not being wounded, Stuart doesn't temporarily command infantry at Chancellorsville. With Stuart as the third corps commander, Stuart's controversial raid never occurs and Stuart's prejudice against certain cavalry brigade commanders no longer dictates disposition of the ANV cavalry.

There is also a theory that Stonewall was in the early stages of pneumonia when he was shot and might have died anyway.

There are a lot of butterflies flapping wings on this, despite the short time frame.

Lee always tried to have his corps be symmetrical, or close to. 2 corps of 4-5 divisions. Then 3 corps of 3 divisions each. I always aporeciatec Napoleon who gave his best corps commanders the most men. Davouts 1 corps typically had 30k+ men while other corps had less than 10k. I know Lee never considered this, but why not have Longstreet and Jackson command 2 corps of 4 divisions and then promote Hill to command the Confederate "Guard" Corps. Which would simply be his division split into two smaller 3 brigade divisions, while possibly adding a few extra brigades when possible.

Something like:

I. Corps - Ltg James Longstreet
McLaws Div - MG Lafayette McLawa
- Barksdales Bde
- Kershaw Bde
- Semmes Bde
- Woffords Bde
Andersons Division - MG Richard Anderson
- Mahones Bde
- Wright's Bde
- Perry's Bde
- Poseys Bde
Hoods Div - MG JohN B. Hood
- Texas Bde
- Laws Bde
- Anderson Bde
- Bennings Bde
Pickett Division
- Armisteads Bde
- Kempers Bde
- Garrett's Bde
- Corse Bde
- Jenkins Bde

II. Corps - LtG Thomas Jackson
Early Div - MG Jubal Early
- Gordons Bde
- Hays Bde
- Hokes Bde
- Smyths Bde
Johnsons Div
- Jones Bde
- Steuart Bde
- Stonewall Bde
- Nicholls Bde
Rodes Div
- Ramseurs Bde
- Iverson Bde
- O'Neal's Bde
- Doles Bde
Wilcox Div - MG Cadmus Wilcox
' Pettigrews Bde
- Davis Bde
- Sander's Bde (Wilcox Bde)
- Daniel's Bde

"Guard Corps - LtG AP Hill
Heths Div - MG Henry Heth
- Brockenbroughs Bde
- Archers Bde
- Lanes Bde
Penders Div - MG Dorsey Pender
- McGowans Bde
- Thomas Bde
- Scales Bde

 

[RobertC]

Lee always tried to have his corps be symmetrical, or close to. 2 corps of 4-5 divisions. Then 3 corps of 3 divisions each. I always aporeciatec Napoleon who gave his best corps commanders the most men. Davouts 1 corps typically had 30k+ men while other corps had less than 10k. I know Lee never considered this, but why not have Longstreet and Jackson command 2 corps of 4 divisions and then promote Hill to command the Confederate "Guard" Corps. Which would simply be his division split into two smaller 3 brigade divisions, while possibly adding a few extra brigades when possible.

Something like:

I. Corps - Ltg James Longstreet
McLaws Div - MG Lafayette McLawa
- Barksdales Bde
- Kershaw Bde
- Semmes Bde
- Woffords Bde
Andersons Division - MG Richard Anderson
- Mahones Bde
- Wright's Bde
- Perry's Bde
- Poseys Bde
Hoods Div - MG JohN B. Hood
- Texas Bde
- Laws Bde
- Anderson Bde
- Bennings Bde
Pickett Division
- Armisteads Bde
- Kempers Bde
- Garrett's Bde
- Corse Bde
- Jenkins Bde

II. Corps - LtG Thomas Jackson
Early Div - MG Jubal Early
- Gordons Bde
- Hays Bde
- Hokes Bde
- Smyths Bde
Johnsons Div
- Jones Bde
- Steuart Bde
- Stonewall Bde
- Nicholls Bde
Rodes Div
- Ramseurs Bde
- Iverson Bde
- O'Neal's Bde
- Doles Bde
Wilcox Div - MG Cadmus Wilcox
' Pettigrews Bde
- Davis Bde
- Sander's Bde (Wilcox Bde)
- Daniel's Bde

"Guard Corps - LtG AP Hill
Heths Div - MG Henry Heth
- Brockenbroughs Bde
- Archers Bde
- Lanes Bde
Penders Div - MG Dorsey Pender
- McGowans Bde
- Thomas Bde
- Scales Bde

I've actually memorized these names and positions. All of them.

 

[Pollaco]

Is this thread intended for all the "what ifs" of the war or just the Jackson/Gettysburg one?

 

[Wizard of Cozz]

I've actually memorized these names and positions. All of them.

Yeah that was all off the top of my head. I've got most of the Confederate order of battle for AoNV down through the war.

 

[Manassas 1861]

What if Ambrose Burnside never had sideburns??

 

[RedRover]

What if Ambrose Burnside never had sideburns??

Whoa! The Universe might implode for just merely suggesting such a titanic rift in the time-space continuum!

 

[RobertC]

Is this thread intended for all the "what ifs" of the war or just the Jackson/Gettysburg one?

just Jackson and Gettysburg right now.

 

[jackt62]

Could the war have ended differently?

No

 

[121st PA Vols]

Some in fact many of the answers to RobertC's 'What If' place all CSA elements in the position they actually were during the battle. That's a huge assumption given the premise of Gen. Jackson's surviving Chancellorsville.
If he were alive, his 2nd Corps could have been the vanguard of the probe towards Gettysburg and points North and East if he in fact allowed that to happen at all.
Whatever you say about the man I don't believe he would have willy nilly let a division (the Light Division) stumble into Gettysburg, become engaged without knowing what was on their front, and not be able to effectively communicate that to Gen. Lee when asked, instead of Hill's almost nonchalance behavior.

Also, earlier, probes by cavalry (White's 35th Va Cav BN) and Gordon's brigade may have been better tasked at least in terms of reporting to Jackson with reconnaissance. Perhaps he sends a probe from Cashtown via Fairfield towards Emmitsburg, a straight shot of only 15 miles on good existing roads (Carrolls Tract Rd > Fairfield Rd > Waynesboro Pike) to take the Fed Left Wing in flank. Maybe he opts to hold the high ground at Cemetery Hill, Peach Orchard, etc.
Whatever he may have done would have exceeded Hill's performance if there ever was a Day-1 at Gettysburg.

 

[Wizard of Cozz]

Some in fact many of the answers to RobertC's 'What If' place all CSA elements in the position they actually were during the battle. That's a huge assumption given the premise of Gen. Jackson's surviving Chancellorsville.
If he were alive, his 2nd Corps could have been the vanguard of the probe towards Gettysburg and points North and East if he in fact allowed that to happen at all.
Whatever you say about the man I don't believe he would have willy nilly let a division (the Light Division) stumble into Gettysburg, become engaged without knowing what was on their front, and not be able to effectively communicate that to Gen. Lee when asked, instead of Hill's almost nonchalance behavior.

Also, earlier, probes by cavalry (White's 35th Va Cav BN) and Gordon's brigade may have been better tasked at least in terms of reporting to Jackson with reconnaissance. Perhaps he sends a probe from Cashtown via Fairfield towards Emmitsburg, a straight shot of only 15 miles on good existing roads (Carrolls Tract Rd > Fairfield Rd > Waynesboro Pike) to take the Fed Left Wing in flank. Maybe he opts to hold the high ground at Cemetery Hill, Peach Orchard, etc.
Whatever he may have done would have exceeded Hill's performance if there ever was a Day-1 at Gettysburg.

One major difference would be that Jackson would of had control of Jenkins cavalry. Which Ewell had. Again assuming a similar order of march where 2nd corps leads the way. If Lee doesn't reorganize into 3 corps, then either it's Longstreet or Jackson in control if troops entering Gettysburg, and as you note, neither woukd if been as hands off as Hill was.

Assuming that Jackson had 3 corps north with Johnson farther behind then it's Longstreet moving in on Gettysburg and he woukd of had a mich firmer hand in what that division was doing. Most likely Anderson.

If the Light division is leading way into Gettysburg that means it's Jackson's corps, and Hill being in divisional command wouks of been much more hands on as the leading division from Cashtown to Gettysburg. If Jackson gets reports of possible union cavalry in Gettysburg, I don't think he dismisses it as quickly as Hill does. It also wouldn't of been Pettigrew, but a veteran command of the Light division leading the way, maybe even Heth himself. Would Hill have dismissed Heth as quickly as Heth did Pettigrew??

If Jackson gets this information he may send Jenkins down to scout to find out what's there.

 

[JeffBrooks]

As a recovering alternate history novelist, I would just like to point out that, assuming Jackson does survive Chancellorsville, the chances of the situation on July 1 being precisely the same as it was historically are so small as to be almost nonexistent. Indeed, there likely wouldn't even have been a "Battle of Gettysburg" at all, since everything that would happen between May 2 and July 1 in this alternate history would be completely different.

Another thing. If Jackson isn't wounded on the night of May 2 and goes ahead with his planned night attack, the result might have been a complete disaster for the Confederates. In other words, it's entirely possible that Jackson not being wounded would result in Chancellorsville being a decisive Union victory.

 

[jackt62]

If Jackson isn't wounded on the night of May 2 and goes ahead with his planned night attack, the result might have been a complete disaster for the Confederates.

Jackson naturally desired to press the results of his flank attack on XI Corps, despite the fact that night was descending and the tactical positions of the armies needed to be understood more fully. Which of course led to his ill-fated scout near the Plank Road, which resulted in Jackson's wounding by friendly fire. Had he not been made hors de combat, Jackson contemplated a daring push northwards towards United States Ford, thereby threatening the entire Union right flank and cutting off its access to a major crossing point on the Rappahannock River. But as noted, such an attack might have ended in a disaster or at least a major setback for the ANV. A night attack by Jackson's exhausted Corps might not have prevailed against Meade's formidable V Corps and Reynolds' approaching I Corps. And in any case, the presence of Sickles' III Corps at Hazel Grove meant that Jackson's Corps, still separated from the rest of the ANV, remained in a tenuous situation.

 

[Generic Username]

As a recovering alternate history novelist, I would just like to point out that, assuming Jackson does survive Chancellorsville, the chances of the situation on July 1 being precisely the same as it was historically are so small as to be almost nonexistent. Indeed, there likely wouldn't even have been a "Battle of Gettysburg" at all, since everything that would happen between May 2 and July 1 in this alternate history would be completely different.

Indeed, something that immediately sticks out to me is-from the accounts I've read-that Ewell didn't make good progress in terms of marching speed during his advance on Harrisburg. By the time the concentration on Gettysburg was ordered, he was still about a day away and thus missed the chance to humiliate the North by (temporarily) taking a Northern state capitol. If there is one thing that you could not generally fault (Seven Days excepted) Jackson for was being good at movement, so personally I could him being able to take the city.