I don't think you're more likely to miss if you aim high? Unless you compare aiming high with aiming correctly - if you aim too high you miss almost as surely as if you aim too low.
That said, there's one possibility that comes to mind, which is that "aim low" is a reminder to aim for the waist not the head. In that context, then that's reminding people to aim so that an error in height of 2-3 feet either way still results in a hit, while if aiming at the head any positive height error is a miss.
All else being equal we should expect that a round aimed slightly too high will hit a man behind the man it's aimed at, while a round aimed slightly too low would strike the ground and do nothing.