At the point of seccession there had been a bumper cotton crop the year before. English mill owners had bought cheap, and stockpiled the excess.
Production in English mills was not affected by the outbreak of war in the US. The new govt. in CSA decided an embargo of exports would force a shortage of raw material in the mills of Europe. Bad timing.
Full production continued until the stockpile was exhausted, around early 62.
By this time the Anaconda blockade had tightened. CSA would have had difficulty exporting cotton, even if they wished. Unfortunate as the price had rocketed. They were literally sitting on a gold mine. A fact which did not go un-noticed by Northern entrepreneurs who happily traded accross the Mason Dixon line.
This was of course a trickle, compared to the needs of the English millowners. Substitute Egyptian and Indian cotton was inferior quality to the American long fibre variety. Inevitably, mills shut down or went over to shorter working hours. Leaving the employees impoverished, and often destitute.
A political storm was brewing.
Public opinion was divided. Recognise the CSA and return to full trading status. Or hope the war would soon end.
The govt. of U.K. was being forced off the fence.
Where the U.K. lead, the CSA believed France would follow.
Then Antietam gave Lincoln his window of opportunity to announce his draft E.P. Followed up with the Jan. 1st 1863 official declaration.
Then the whole complexion of the matter was changed.
An extract from a letter to Lincoln from Lancashire millworkers now on public works and benefits:
.. the vast progress which you have made in the short space of twenty months fills us with hope that every stain on your freedom will shortly be removed, and that the erasure of that foul blot on civilisation and Christianity – chattel slavery – during your presidency, will cause the name of Abraham Lincoln to be honoured and revered by posterity. We are certain that such a glorious consummation will cement Great Britain and the United States in close and enduring regards.
—Public Meeting, Free Trade Hall, Manchester, 31 December 1862.
And his reply:
.. I know and deeply deplore the sufferings which the working people of Manchester and in all Europe are called to endure in this crisis. It has been often and studiously represented that the attempt to overthrow this Government which was built on the foundation of human rights, and to substitute for it one which should rest exclusively on the basis of slavery, was unlikely to obtain the favour of Europe.
Through the action of disloyal citizens, the working people of Europe have been subjected to a severe trial for the purpose of forcing their sanction to that attempt. Under the circumstances I cannot but regard your decisive utterances on the question as an instance of sublime Christian heroism which has not been surpassed in any age or in any country. It is indeed an energetic and re-inspiring assurance of the inherent truth and of the ultimate and universal triumph of justice, humanity and freedom.
I hail this interchange of sentiments, therefore, as an augury that, whatever else may happen, whatever misfortune may befall your country or my own, the peace and friendship which now exists between the two nations will be, as it shall be my desire to make them, perpetual.
—Abraham Lincoln, 19 January 1863
There was not universal support for the North. Some millworkers continued to fly a confederate flag.
The Federal blockade of southern ports was seen as an unwarranted interference with the freedom of trade. There was pressure on the British government to demand its lifting, by force if necessary. On the day of the Prince of Wales' marriage to the Danish princess, Alexandra, cotton mills in some Lancashire towns hoisted the Confederate flag in tribute.
Lancashire's liberalism had its limits.
http://www.spinningtheweb.org.uk/m_display.php?irn=10&sub=overview&theme=overview&crumb=Lancashire Cotton Famine
It would not be until 1864, that a usable amount of cotton would come into English mills. By which time many skilled workers had moved away to the wool trade. Cotton textile manufacturing would never be the same again.
But it really was that close, IF the U.K. would have entered the war.