Lincoln !860 Electoral Map & Results

[John Winn]

Which states do you think the democrats would take back from the republicans with the extra turnout?

In addition to Oregon and California, had there been no split ticket and there'd been a little more Democratic turnout I think Illinois and Indiana could have been lost to Lincoln. If you add up the non-Lincoln votes in those two states it's actually pretty close:

Illinois
172,171 Republican
167,460 other

Indiana
139,033 Republican
133,110 other

Lose all four states and the Republicans only get 142 electoral votes and lose.

Of course none of that happened but when we play "what if" I still see it as closer than it is usually portrayed. Coulda mighta been.

 

[NedBaldwin]

In addition to Oregon and California, had there been no split ticket and there'd been a little more Democratic turnout I think Illinois and Indiana could have been lost to Lincoln. If you add up the non-Lincoln votes in those two states it's actually pretty close:
...

But that assumes that the Bell votes would switch to the Democrats. Seems doubtful to me.

 

[John Winn]

But that assumes that the Bell votes would switch to the Democrats. Seems doubtful to me.

That's true. But if Bell - or someone like him - wasn't a choice then it seems to me just as likely that many would have voted for the "anybody but Lincoln" candidate rather than just stay home. Maybe not, but it seems a reasonable possibility to me.

 

[spurrier458]

I would love to see someone write a book that profiles John Bell voters before, during, and after the war. I have a pretty good idea of how an average Lincoln, Breckinridge, and Douglas voter would look in my head, but I've had difficulty with Bell voters. Part of that is due to how unclear the Constitutional Union Party platform is. I remember reading it when someone here posted it, and it was just such a vague document that was a perfect example of "talkin' loud and sayin' nothing".

Here's the platform again:
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=29571

It's hard to say what those voters would do if Bell didn't exist as a candidate, although I can't see them voting Republican.