Can the Union defeat the South after a Trent War?

Read the final paragraph...
This one?

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Thouvenel says the Trent Affair is a complication for the US in the midst of fighting a rebellion. Its precedent disquiets the other nations. France considers itself a loyal friend by pointing this out. I request you let Seward know what I wrote.

Nothing about France getting involved in a war.
 
Something I should point out is that the analysis I did, which looked at the things the Union could do to deploy more troops, flagged up quite specifically the tradeoffs involved.

I could, similarly, show that the British have soft deployment limits after which they are accepting additional risks and tradeoffs. For example, they have 25 disposable Armstrong 12 pounder foot batteries in Britain and 10 disposable Armstrong horse artillery batteries in Britain, so after that point the choice is going to be what to arm Canadian militia batteries with (or possibly using British militia batteries that have volunteered for overseas service), though in both cases if given Armstrongs they will be substantially less efficient with them than the British regulars.

I think it is likely that (in keeping with standard British corps structure) they would add one positional battery per corps. That is militia gunners armed with 20 pounder Armstrong guns, which would not manoeuvre with any detached forces but would accompany the corps.


Similarly, for the British to expand their field strength in Canada and the Maritimes beyond 66 battalions of infantry and 15 regiments of regular cavalry means using Canadian troops. This augments the size but lowers the average quality of the British field forces.

Tradeoffs are not absent for using Canadian troops either and the supply is not unlimited.
In Canada proper there are, attested, 1 oversized battalion of regular infantry (that's the Royal Canadian Rifles), 193 companies volunteer infantry (incl. an Irish battalion from Montreal volunteered during the crisis), 34 troops volunteer cavalry. 8 volunteer field batteries, 7 volunteer foot/position batteries, 12 volunteer garrison batteries, 5 volunteer engineer companies and 7 volunteer naval companies. Those are effectively baked-in as available - it amounts to about 19 volunteer battalions of infantry, a non-trivial but not very large amount of volunteer cavalry, enough volunteer artillery to provide the position batteries I mentioned and the field artillery to accompany the infantry, and some miscellaneous garrison and engineering companies. Effectively there is more than a division of volunteer Canadians, though less than two. (I did not account for volunteer Maritimes support here).



The majority of Canadian manpower contribution would be their militia. The first planned Sedentary militia callout (of 46 battalions in Canada proper, plus - to my recollection - 7 in the Maritimes) was expected to be fully subscribed or oversubscribed, meaning that it would generate another 46 battalions in Canada, raising the expected Canadian manpower to about 64 battalions - on par with the maximum British commitment. Some of this militia callout may end up diverted to artillery roles as there was quite a lot of artillery in Canada (by no means an unlimited amount, but enough to fit the expectations of the defence scheme's requirements for batteries in various places).

A second militia callout is much less likely to be fully subscribed, as it starts to tap out Canadian mobilizable manpower, but it would certainly generate a lot more than nothing. The first callout was one company per battalion of the sedentary militia.

Arming these Canadian troops would in many cases initially be with percussion muskets, though large numbers of Enfield rifles were sent both during and after the crisis and so by the time of the thaw they would mostly be equipped with Enfields. The initial bottleneck on Enfield numbers may complicate rifle training, though.


All of these things and the tradeoffs involved with them are baked into the assessment of the British and Canadian position. No posters that I am aware of have been presenting a British or Canadian position that is more rosy than they can substantiate with evidence (certainly I can name every single individual British infantry battalion, cavalry regiment, field battery and Canadian volunteer formation I have just enumerated).
 
This one?

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Thouvenel says the Trent Affair is a complication for the US in the midst of fighting a rebellion. Its precedent disquiets the other nations. France considers itself a loyal friend by pointing this out. I request you let Seward know what I wrote.

Nothing about France getting involved in a war.

A lot about France, and others, getting involved. If the US doesn't back down it will "disquiet all the powers which continue outside of the existing contest."

Translation - if you don't back down, we and others will get involved. If you back down, we can stay friends.
 
The question is after a Trent war could the union defeat the confederacy. How many union forces would have to be deployed on border with British North America post war and how much forced military service is politically doable at that time. US draft didn't start until 63 and by 65 Americans north and south were pretty war weary. France said they wouldn't get in but wouldn't they be tempted to regain former Mexican territory. What could stop France if union is fighting CSA and UK. So, there is a possibility US/UK make peace leaving US to fight CSA/France. IMHO USA was fortunate Trent affair did not spin out of control.
 
The Canadians would mostly be getting Enfields.

The Maritimes

In New Brunswick and Nova Scotia there are in store and in the hands of the volunteers 20,663 stand of arms (ref). The local commander estimates he can call immediately into service 20,000 militia and ultimately 40,000. I accept his judgement, especially in light of these two provinces rapidly raising ca. 15,000 militia for the field (and overawing Maine) in 1840.

This includes existing volunteers, some of the active units of the sedentary/ regular militia (for example the New Brunswick Yeomanry Cavalry) and new units.

PEI has 2,000 Enfields for her militia and can man her own defences, and perhaps send a regiment at Halifax.

Canada

In Canada the Imperial stores have 25,060 stand of arms (exc/ the 984 Brunswick rifles the 60th Rifles turned in and exchanged for Enfields), exclusive of those already in the hands of the militia (ref). The active militia have already been issued arms, and thus their rifles are in addition to those in store. There were thus, to hand, arms for about >31,000 men of which 10,000 will have percussion smoothbores and 20,000 Enfields. The 30,000 Enfields carried by the Melbourne were transferred to stores in Quebec gave 50,000 Enfields in Canada (ref).

In January 1862 Canada can thus probably muster 30,000 armed militia in various states of drill, with another 30,000 being armed during February when the equipment from the Melbourne is conveyed by sledge to Canada proper. Canada can probably field 50,000 riflemen, 10,000 musketmen, 50 field artillery pieces (the historical number) and ca. 2,000 cavalry in early April who have been drilled for three months. As more supplies come in they will raise another 50-100,000 militia.
 
Neither of the two diplomatic sources explicitly say anything about an ultimatum. And the ultimatum wasn't even delivered until 2 weeks after Thouvenel's letter.
They don't use the word ultimatum, no, but nor does the actual ultimatum.


Thouvenel says of British demands "...which consist in the immediate release of the persons taken from on board the Trent..." which certainly indicates that he knew what the demand would be before it was even sent; clearly neither the time limit (note "immediate") nor the specifics (note "release of the persons taken from on board the Trent") were a surprise to Thouvenel. He said the British demand was not objectionable before it was even made, and was correct about what it contained so it's not as if the British sent a demand fundamentally different from what he approved.

Rechberg says "it appears to us, moreover, that the demands drawn up for this purpose by the Cabinet of St James' have nothing in them hurtful to the feelings of the Cabinet of Washington". Either he knows what's in it (which is possible, his message was sent several days after the demand) or he's positively approving of it without needing to see it.


Bernstorff says "The English demands which were addressed to the cabinet of Washington, and upon the acceptance of which the maintenance of peace depends, are not exactly known to us, but so far as we are informed we are convinced that no conditions have been made by England by which the dignity of President Lincoln could have reasonably been hurt." He isn't confident enough to positively approve the demands without needing to see them, but he does refer to demands where either they're accepted (and there is peace) or there is war; that is the definition of a diplomatic ultimatum. Bernstoff understands that Britain has likely sent an ultimatum, even if he hasn't read it, and he doesn't think it's likely that there's anything objectionable in that.


In combination, all three of these men clearly either knew or guessed quite accurately what the British demands were, and they were willing to say that the British demands were unobjectionable. Thouvenel guessed it would be a demand to immediately release the commissioners; Rechberg says the demands aren't objectionable; Bernstoff accurately describes the demands as a "this or war" situation.

What exactly do you think these men mistakenly thought they were approving of? Did Thouvenel mean by "the immediate release of the persons taken on board the Trent" something other than the word immediate? Did Rechberg not know that the British were preparing for war but asking for the release of the commissioners? Did Bernstoff imagine that the British demand was "wait while we sue you, or there'll be war"?
 
A lot about France, and others, getting involved. If the US doesn't back down it will "disquiet all the powers which continue outside of the existing contest."

Translation - if you don't back down, we and others will get involved. If you back down, we can stay friends.
"Its precedent disquiets us." - Who would consider that a threat of force?
 
Something I should point out is that the analysis I did, which looked at the things the Union could do to deploy more troops, flagged up quite specifically the tradeoffs involved.

I could, similarly, show that the British have soft deployment limits after which they are accepting additional risks and tradeoffs. For example, they have 25 disposable Armstrong 12 pounder foot batteries in Britain and 10 disposable Armstrong horse artillery batteries in Britain, so after that point the choice is going to be what to arm Canadian militia batteries with (or possibly using British militia batteries that have volunteered for overseas service), though in both cases if given Armstrongs they will be substantially less efficient with them than the British regulars.

I think it is likely that (in keeping with standard British corps structure) they would add one positional battery per corps. That is militia gunners armed with 20 pounder Armstrong guns, which would not manoeuvre with any detached forces but would accompany the corps.


Similarly, for the British to expand their field strength in Canada and the Maritimes beyond 66 battalions of infantry and 15 regiments of regular cavalry means using Canadian troops. This augments the size but lowers the average quality of the British field forces.

Tradeoffs are not absent for using Canadian troops either and the supply is not unlimited.
In Canada proper there are, attested, 1 oversized battalion of regular infantry (that's the Royal Canadian Rifles), 193 companies volunteer infantry (incl. an Irish battalion from Montreal volunteered during the crisis), 34 troops volunteer cavalry. 8 volunteer field batteries, 7 volunteer foot/position batteries, 12 volunteer garrison batteries, 5 volunteer engineer companies and 7 volunteer naval companies. Those are effectively baked-in as available - it amounts to about 19 volunteer battalions of infantry, a non-trivial but not very large amount of volunteer cavalry, enough volunteer artillery to provide the position batteries I mentioned and the field artillery to accompany the infantry, and some miscellaneous garrison and engineering companies. Effectively there is more than a division of volunteer Canadians, though less than two. (I did not account for volunteer Maritimes support here).



The majority of Canadian manpower contribution would be their militia. The first planned Sedentary militia callout (of 46 battalions in Canada proper, plus - to my recollection - 7 in the Maritimes) was expected to be fully subscribed or oversubscribed, meaning that it would generate another 46 battalions in Canada, raising the expected Canadian manpower to about 64 battalions - on par with the maximum British commitment. Some of this militia callout may end up diverted to artillery roles as there was quite a lot of artillery in Canada (by no means an unlimited amount, but enough to fit the expectations of the defence scheme's requirements for batteries in various places).

A second militia callout is much less likely to be fully subscribed, as it starts to tap out Canadian mobilizable manpower, but it would certainly generate a lot more than nothing. The first callout was one company per battalion of the sedentary militia.

Arming these Canadian troops would in many cases initially be with percussion muskets, though large numbers of Enfield rifles were sent both during and after the crisis and so by the time of the thaw they would mostly be equipped with Enfields. The initial bottleneck on Enfield numbers may complicate rifle training, though.


All of these things and the tradeoffs involved with them are baked into the assessment of the British and Canadian position. No posters that I am aware of have been presenting a British or Canadian position that is more rosy than they can substantiate with evidence (certainly I can name every single individual British infantry battalion, cavalry regiment, field battery and Canadian volunteer formation I have just enumerated).
Where are the union forces going to come from? The US is pressed hard just putting down the rebellion, so this puts less pressure on British forces so IMHO Brits have time to get up a credible defense posture but offensive for strike into US is different beast.
 
and the next bit that, if the US doesn't change policy, those who have stayed out of the conflict will get involved...

It's a fairly blatant threat, in diplomatic language. Diplomats doesn't go around saying "stitch that Jimmy! I'll give you a Glasgee kiss!"
The next bit doesn't say anything like that. It's not a blatant threat. That's insane.
 
Yes, it is. Just because you can't see, doesn't make it so.

"We're disquieted by your behaviour. We suggest you change it or we might... get involved. Change it and we can stay friendly."
Nothing about getting involved. Only a concern about the precedent that the Trent incident sets, and a concern that if unresolved it will result in a war between Britain and the US. Anyone that reads any more than that into Thouvenel's letter is letting their imagination run wild.
 
Nothing about getting involved. Only a concern about the precedent that the Trent incident sets, and a concern that if unresolved it will result in a war between Britain and the US. Anyone that reads any more than that into Thouvenel's letter is letting their imagination run wild.
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Yet similar words concerned the US Minister to France enough that he decided to ask, in his own words, bluntly about war. It may be that you have not often read diplomatic correspondence, I mean who wants to, but diplomats are notorious for avoiding bluntness. So Dayton asks bluntly will it be war and does not get a firm no. While France is preserving what in modern parlance is referred to as "strategic ambiguity" it should be noted that in politics the lack of a firm no is often taken as a likely yes.
 
Where are the union forces going to come from? The US is pressed hard just putting down the rebellion, so this puts less pressure on British forces so IMHO Brits have time to get up a credible defense posture but offensive for strike into US is different beast.
I was providing it as a comparison. When those who are arguing for a position closer to a likely British victory outline British forces, it is generally speaking (I cannot claim perfection) with a clear understanding of the tradeoffs involved with mobilizing those forces and the limits on them, both soft limits (after this point things get worse) and hard limits (after this point things are impossible).

When I looked at the extent to which the US could provide ersatz additional forces (that is, mobilize more troops than historical, despite a lack of strategic resources) I aimed to show that the tradeoffs involved were substantial.

I will also note that I have attempted to outline what I thought was a plausible minimum defensive deployment for the Union, and that I can also provide my best-guess for British defensive deployments in terms not only of how many troops but where they would go and plausible officers down to the brigade level. That's too much to ask for someone else, but it does mean that when I enumerate available defensive forces I'm doing so from a position of knowledge and that that knowledge can be questioned if I've erred.


This is in contrast with what happened when I asked about how the US would be likely to distribute its defensive forces, where the answer that I got was that the US would mobilize more troops. No attention to tradeoffs. No willingness to consider the soft and hard limits on US mobilization.
When it was argued that the US would fight a commerce war to force Britain to the negotiating table, there was no attention to the difficulties that are posed by doing this during a blockade situation - or the soft limit that the US can't send out many commerce raiders without impacting their ability to defend their coastline, or for that matter the hard limit that the US can't send out (as the New York Herald fondly imagined) 6,000 privateers, not unless each pair of privateers shared a single cannon between them and there were none in the coast defences.
 
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Yet similar words concerned the US Minister to France enough that he decided to ask, in his own words, bluntly about war. It may be that you have not often read diplomatic correspondence, I mean who wants to, but diplomats are notorious for avoiding bluntness. So Dayton asks bluntly will it be war and does not get a firm no. While France is preserving what in modern parlance is referred to as "strategic ambiguity" it should be noted that in politics the lack of a firm no is often taken as a likely yes.
I'd say a lack of a firm no means that someone is keeping their options open. But saying that it wasn't their affair, and that they would be only spectators, implies at the very least a reluctance on their part to get involved.
 
Something that I do want to flag up in terms of the Trent war itself that I don't think has yet been sufficiently analyzed is the problems with total US field artillery. This problem may actually be less acute than the problems with US firearms, because the US did not import large fractions of their field artillery from overseas and because the few months' recruiting pause seems to have allowed production to result in a stockpile of between 450 and 500 weapons.

Presuming that the supply chain does not involve significant amounts of British iron, this is enough for about seventy to eighty new batteries (or, put another way, an increase of about 30% in the number of deployed field guns) by the end of June 30, 1862 over historical, though of course it does mean the Union can't retire 6 pounder smoothbores (a thing they seem to have mostly done historically by Second Bull Run?)
 
"British intervention in the American Civil War was little more than a chimera." Russell Weigley, A Great Civil War.

This excerpt from Weigley's book makes me think that the most accurate and common-sense opinion in this thread has been Repman's. Additionally, WausauBob's opinion that the Trent may have been a trap set by the confederates is mentioned.

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Part of the problem is trying to figure out what a Trent War looks like.



In general I think most posters would agree there is a chance, possibly even a good chance the Union can still win after an interlude of not more than 6 months. However a lot depends on what @OldReliable1862 means by fight well. If the Union for example tries to invade the Canadas and/or the Maritimes they are going to need a lot more troops from the southern fronts than they would if they stand on the defensive.

This might for a hypothetical example see the Union lost control of Kentucky which would have an impact on fighting in the west, by contrast the troops might be taken from the eastern theatre at least in a US offensive against Canada scenario. Do the US in either a defensive or northern offensive scenario also/instead continue their southern offensives which would be impacted both by the shortage of troops and powder. Conversely does the Union stand on the defensive which the Confederates might use to dig in or conversely might try and take advantage of with an offensive or two of their own. Over ambitious offensives by the rebels might well lead to a rather different interpretation of Southern fighting prowess than OTL. It is one of those weird instances where something might actually go more right for the Union.

That said in general any Trent War is likely to benefit the Confederacy and negatively affect the federal loyalists. Hence the clamour over slavery by some posters despite that abolition was not United States policy at the time, even in the rebel territories (you will note those same posters do not applaud the British for freeing rebel slaves during that argument over who made the best tea for example). The issue they ignore is that it is precisely the notion that the USA cannot lose, is always in the right and can do no wrong that was the greatest danger to their success.

The progress of the USA in the 19th Century from relative backwater to major sea faring commercial power before the Civil War and then despite the loss of that sea faring status (for reasons not solely dependent upon the Civil War) its rise into a major industrial power by the end of the 19th Century is pretty amazing and worth learning about.

RR

Very much agree with what your said. Things can go in all sorts of directions and some things can go wrong for the rebels even with this bonus if they misjudge things and really screw up.

I did try to post a draft outline in #485 back on page 25 as an attempt to float ideas but it got buried in the general disruption and chaos. However basically whatever the north does it will take an hit in its real naval and military strength compared to OTL - especially in the naval - as well as economically and in its political standing.

I suspect there would be a bid for Montreal, in part because Lincoln really needs to do something having blundered into war with the US and he seemed to be thinking of that. Can't see it succeeding for reasons several people have mentioned by how big the union losses, the impact on their morale and as a counter point how much they might learn from the process?

I think there would be attacks on some US ports to make them come to terms and both sides are likely to get some surprises. Britain should be able with a powerful force to win such encounters given the limitations of union fortifications but the presence of monitor type units and minefields could cause problems and losses.

After the war:
a) How quickly would full trade resume between the union and the rest of the world, including the UK?
b) What has the south done in the meantime both good and bad for it. For instance if its too complacent and the union has built up a force of warships can it quickly start gaining lodgements along the southern coastline for a new blockade.
c) In return how much has the south boosted its forces, the army especially with guns and artillery the navy with new armoured ships, whether home built, imported or a combination of both. I.e. say constructed in the south but with some of guns, armour or engines imported from Europe.
d) How has the front line changed? This might seem something more important that the preceding but unless dramatic it could be overturned by the regaining of numerical/qualitative superiority by the union in forthcoming years.

I agree that unless their gone backwards too far during the Trent conflict or really screwed up elsewhere the union has the capacity to still suppress the southern rebellion but a lot will depend on what both sides do and probably the state of play by Nov 1864 which is unlikely to be as favourable to the union as OTL.
 
My view on the politics of the war is that a lot depends on the Union theory of victory. I've mentioned that I think the Union would probably go for Montreal to try and end the war with Britain quickly, and the funny thing about that is that it means more short-term Union vulnerability (more troops to Canada) but it also probably gives the Union a better chance of bringing the Rebellion to a successful conclusion if they can endure the first six months of 1862 or so.

If the Union goes for commerce war and a war of endurance, on the other hand, their troops requirement to Canada is less and so they've got less short-term vulnerability, but this means it's likely that the Union will be so weakened relative to the Confederates by a war that they'll be unable to bring the Rebellion to a successful conclusion.


The reason for that is that in order for Lincoln to have the political cover for what will likely be seen as a humiliating peace the Union theory of victory has to have obviously failed. If the Union public sets their hopes on a campaign against Montreal and they suffer a swingeing defeat in June, while McClellan is at significant cost fighting Pseudo-Gettysburg on the Monocacy and struggling to prevent the Confederates from besieging Washington at the same time as the Confederates are securing control of Kentucky, then that's a situation where Lincoln has the political cover to get the US out of the war even if that means surrendering the diplomats, apologizing, and signing the Treaty of Paris to clarify the maritime law situation.

If on the other hand the Union public sets their hopes on economically exhausting the British, that means fighting a long war and it means fighting a war of exhaustion where the blockade and iron shortages and powder shortages &etc. really have a chance to seriously bite; meanwhile the Confederacy has years to set themselves up securely, import modern weapons, build (or import) ironclads for coast defence, and build fortifications to protect themselves. What's more, if that's the US theory of victory then it's much harder to actually realize it's going badly until the US is suffering economically so badly that it struggles to continue paying for the war; that puts the US in a terrible situation to try and overcome the Confederacy once it's over.


Honestly, I would actually think the US is in better shape to defeat the Rebellion after an end to a Trent war by failing to take Montreal than it would be after an end to a Trent war by successfully economically pressuring the British Empire, regardless of how likely I think those things are to happen.
 

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