Confederate Strength 1862

CanadianCanuck

First Sergeant
Joined
Nov 21, 2014
I'm doing a bit of research on the Confederate conscription acts in 1862 and part of that does come from trying to understand the urgency. So far as I understand it many regiments had only enlisted for a year in 1861, and so there was some urgency in getting men back in the ranks. However, I'm curious as to what the strength of the Confederate army was in early 1862 and why this became such a crisis.

If anyone can direct me to that information I'd be sincerely grateful!
 
I don't have anything specific but I was reading something last night that the Light Division doubled in size between Antietam and Fredericksburg, and that was from about 4500 to about 9000. The vast majority were conscripts, so that is in the fall of 62.
Jamie, was that conscripts or the return of those stragglers that failed to go into Antietam?
 
I'm doing a bit of research on the Confederate conscription acts in 1862 and part of that does come from trying to understand the urgency. So far as I understand it many regiments had only enlisted for a year in 1861, and so there was some urgency in getting men back in the ranks. However, I'm curious as to what the strength of the Confederate army was in early 1862 and why this became such a crisis.

If anyone can direct me to that information I'd be sincerely grateful!


See attached. I have read that 1/2 of all enlistments would expire by June 1862

9ED479FB-6853-4ADE-9EA5-371AE69451BB.jpeg
 
See attached. I have read that 1/2 of all enlistments would expire by June 1862

View attachment 400808

Wow, this is phenomenal, thank you! I'd known there was a table for Union strength near this date (which I sadly seem to have lost) but wasn't aware such an accurate return was still available for Confederate strength! May I ask where I might find this in the Official Records?
 
I don't have anything specific but I was reading something last night that the Light Division doubled in size between Antietam and Fredericksburg, and that was from about 4500 to about 9000. The vast majority were conscripts, so that is in the fall of 62.
Don't forget that the Antietam numbers are artificially deflated because of the disruption to the army at that time. AP Hill's division is on the July 20 reports where it has 10,651 officers and men (Confederate) PFD and 15,436 men AP.


AP Hill​
Date​
PFD​
AP​
20 Jul 1862​
10651​
15436​
22 Sep 1862​
4777​
5468​
30 Sep 1862​
7382​
9103​
10 Oct 1862​
8699​
10596​
20 Oct 1862​
9491​
10891​
10 Nov 1862​
10572​
12239​

The most parlous explanation to me is that the 22 September numbers are the anomaly. Essentially for the 4500 post-Antietam number to be correct AP Hill would have to have suffered about 6,000 casualties (PFD) or 10,000 (AP) in the Second Bull Run campaign and at Antietam, and he wasn't engaged to that level - but he did do a lot of very hard marching, which would have made his force straggle on top of the casualties he did have.

Note that the 10 November number in AP is still 3,000 down on the 20 Jul number. Accounting for return of casualties this might reflect the actual number of unrecoverable casualties AP Hill suffered over this time. (His Aggregate Present and Absent goes down by 5,000 over the same period, though.)
 
So here's my understanding of the situation in 1862.


As of the Seven Days Battles (per Harsh), there were about 5,777 Confederate companies in service. Of these, 2,513 were actually at the Seven Days battles themselves.

Assuming that these companies were equivalent in average strength to their Union counterparts (about 60 men per company in Union PFD) would imply approximately 128,000 men in (Union style) PFD in service at the Seven Days and 346,000 men PFD in the whole of the Confederate army (possibly including local militia, and definitely including all the troops as garrisons on the coast which were surprisingly numerous). The 128,000 PFD figure is actually fairly well sustained by other ways of getting at Confederate strength in the Seven Days, but I don't think we can necessarily assume that the average company was 60 men (as companies elsewhere may have averaged smaller. It is however the case that:
- Lee was complaining that his force was under-officered.
- His force had more officers per man than the Army of the Potomac on July 20 by Lee's counts.
- This therefore implies that the counts Lee was using in his paperwork, especially PFD, did not equate to the Union army's measurement of the same thing.

This in turn affects the above and why it is higher than a cursory read of Confeederate paperwork would imply.


I think it's quite plausible that the Confederates may have had upwards of 300,000 men PFD in service at one time in mid-1862 as a result of their early conscription act and a much greater focus on early mobilization (the Union having closed recruitment and then reopened it later on). The Union had upwards of 650,000 men PFD pass through their army in 1862 alone (the first volunteer call produced an army which was at about 425,000 PFD after pre-June-30 casualties, plus the later volunteer call) and with the Confederacy going straight to conscription we would expect them to get more of their population in the army at one time. Note that for these purposes (mobilizable manpower) we should not necessarily ignore non-white populations, because those people were freeing up white manpower to be mobilized - either by being part of the support train of the armies themselves or by allowing the economy to continue to function adequately with a greater % of the white manpower being pulled out of it.
 
I think it's quite plausible that the Confederates may have had upwards of 300,000 men PFD in service at one time in mid-1862 as a result of their early conscription act and a much greater focus on early mobilization (the Union having closed recruitment and then reopened it later on). The Union had upwards of 650,000 men PFD pass through their army in 1862 alone (the first volunteer call produced an army which was at about 425,000 PFD after pre-June-30 casualties, plus the later volunteer call) and with the Confederacy going straight to conscription we would expect them to get more of their population in the army at one time. Note that for these purposes (mobilizable manpower) we should not necessarily ignore non-white populations, because those people were freeing up white manpower to be mobilized - either by being part of the support train of the armies themselves or by allowing the economy to continue to function adequately with a greater % of the white manpower being pulled out of it.

Going by the above chart (late 1861-early 1862) and assuming that conscription began in earnest and was ramped up going into and after the Seven Days and other events like Shiloh and Corinth, then I'd say you'd probably be right that in mid 1862 there were in excess of 300,000 men present for duty in the middle of the year.

What interests me more is the strength before the major campaigns (necessarily I'm setting those campaigns starting in February because from February-September you had an almost unbroken string of battles and casualties). The interest is generally, how many men can we say volunteered to serve in the Confederate forces before conscription kicked in early in 1862?
 
What interests me more is the strength before the major campaigns (necessarily I'm setting those campaigns starting in February because from February-September you had an almost unbroken string of battles and casualties). The interest is generally, how many men can we say volunteered to serve in the Confederate forces before conscription kicked in early in 1862?
I've got a giant list of all the regiments which were in service by March-April, if that helps? (It might not.) I built it for Trent war stuff, so it includes regiments already assigned to roles, but in total I count ca. 420 infantry regiments (plus there would be cavalry and artillery as well, the list doesn't include them).

I believe there's an analysis collating data from Livermore etc. which is April 1862, and which is AP. It comes to 306,000 men in field forces plus another 118,000 militia, though it doesn't include AL/LA/MS militia.
It appears to be pre Shiloh.


Another possible modelling method would be to look at how many Confederate formations out of a sample set (say, Virginia infantry) had already been mustered in before the conscription kicked in versus how many were mustered in after that point and by the place you consider the data to be more reliable.
 
I've got a giant list of all the regiments which were in service by March-April, if that helps? (It might not.) I built it for Trent war stuff, so it includes regiments already assigned to roles, but in total I count ca. 420 infantry regiments (plus there would be cavalry and artillery as well, the list doesn't include them).

I believe there's an analysis collating data from Livermore etc. which is April 1862, and which is AP. It comes to 306,000 men in field forces plus another 118,000 militia, though it doesn't include AL/LA/MS militia.
It appears to be pre Shiloh.


Another possible modelling method would be to look at how many Confederate formations out of a sample set (say, Virginia infantry) had already been mustered in before the conscription kicked in versus how many were mustered in after that point and by the place you consider the data to be more reliable.

That would be an extremely useful reference tool. Crossing that with what I can dig up in the OR's would be helpful too.

The idea at looking at troops mustered before conscription would also be a useful idea!
 
That would be an extremely useful reference tool. Crossing that with what I can dig up in the OR's would be helpful too.
So here's the list, which includes my assignations as to their roles except for the "notional spare field corps" (the troops of which are instead left assigned to coastal defence etc).


I constructed this essentially to make sure I wasn't missing any regiments which actually existed, by checking all the "missing spots" in the ORBAT.

ASJ
-Bragg
--Breckinridge
---Bowen
9 AR, 10 AR, 2 CS, 25 MS

ASJ
-Bragg
--Breckinridge
---Statham
15 MS, 19 TN, 20 TN, 28 TN, 45 TN

ASJ
-Bragg
--Breckinridge
---Trabue
4 AL Bn, 3 KY, 4 KY, 6 KY, TN Bn

ASJ
-Bragg
--Ruggles
---Gibson
1 AR, 4 LA, 13 LA, 19 LA

ASJ
-Bragg
--Ruggles
---P Anderson
1 FL Bn, 17 LA, 20 LA, 9 TX

ASJ
-Bragg
--Ruggles
---Pond
16 LA, 18 LA, Crescent LA, Orleans Bn, 38 TN

ASJ
-Bragg
--Withers
---Chalmers
5 MS, 7 MS, 9 MS, 10 MS

ASJ
-Bragg
--Withers
---Gladden
21 AL, 22 AL, 25 AL, 19 AL, 1 LA Regulars

ASJ
-Bragg
--Withers
---Jackson
17 AL, 18 AL, 5 GA, 2 TX, 24 AL

ASJ
-Hardee
--Cleburne
---Cleburne
15 AR, 2 TN, 6 MS, 24 TN, 48 TN

ASJ
-Hardee
--Cleburne
---Gardner
30 AL, 35 AL, 35 TN, 39 AL

ASJ
-Hardee
--Cleburne
---Hawthorn
33 AL, 17 TN, 21 TN, 23 TN

ASJ
-Hardee
--Hindman
---Liddel
2 AR, 5 AR, 6 AR, 7 AR, 8 AR

ASJ
-Hardee
--Hindman
---Marmaduke
3 CS, 25 TN, 29 TN, 36 TN

ASJ
-Hardee
--Hindman
---Wood
16 AL, 32 MS, 33 MS, 55 TN, 44 TN

ASJ
-Hardee
--Pemberton
---Drayton
3 SC Bn, Phillips, 50 GA, 51 GA

ASJ
-Hardee
--Pemberton
---Mercer
25 GA, 36 GA, 39 GA, 40 GA

ASJ
-Hardee
--Pemberton
---Trapier
28 AL, 34 AL, 10 SC, 19 SC

ASJ
-Polk
--Cheatham
---Donelson
8 TN, 15 TN, 16 TN, 51 TN

ASJ
-Polk
--Cheatham
---Maney
1 TN, 6 TN, 9 TN, 27 TN

ASJ
-Polk
--Cheatham
---Maxey
41 GA, 24 MS, 23 MS, 26 MS

ASJ
-Polk
--Clark
---Clark
31 AL, 22 MS, 10 TN, 26 TN

ASJ
-Polk
--Clark
---Stewart
13 AR, 4 TN, 5 TN, 31 TN, 33 TN

ASJ
-Polk
--Clark
---Wharton
51 VA, 50 VA, 56 VA, 20 MS

ASJ
-Polk
--Johnson
---Buckner
2 KY, 14 MS, 41 TN, 3 TN (Brown), 18 TN, 32 TN

ASJ
-Polk
--Johnson
---Floyd
27 AL, 29 AL, 1 MS, 4 MS

ASJ
-Polk
--Johnson
---Pillow
12 TN, 13 TN, 22 TN, 154 Senior TN

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Maury
---Dockery
18 AR, 19 AR, 20 AR, McCairns’ AR Bn

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Maury
---Moore
Hobbs’ AR, Adams’ AR, 25 MO, MO St Gd 5

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Maury
---Phifer
52 TN, 3 AR Dis, 6 TX Dis, 9 TX Dis

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sam Jones
---Green
1 MO, 4 MO, MO Bn, Mo Cav Bn Dis

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sam Jones
---Hebert
14 AR, 17 AR, 3 LA, Whitfield’s

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sam Jones
---Little
16 AR, 2 MO, 3 MO, MO Bn

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sterling Price
---Churchill
4 AR, 1 AR Rifle Dis, 2 AR Rifle Dis, 4 AR Bn, Turnbull’s BN

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sterling Price
---Hogg
McCrays AR, 10 TX Dis, 11 TX Dis, 14 TX Dis

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sterling Price
---Rust
MO St Gd 1, MO St Gd 2, MO St Gd 3, MO St Gd 4

JEJ
-GW Smith
--DH Hill
---Featherston/GB Anderson
27 GA, 28 GA, 4 NC, 49 VA

JEJ
-GW Smith
--DH Hill
---Griffith
13 MS, 17 MS, 18 MS, 21 MS

JEJ
-GW Smith
--DH Hill
---Walker
3 AR, 1 NC, 2 NC, 3 NC, 44 GA, 30 VA

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Whiting
---Hampton
14 GA, 19 GA, 16 NC, Hampton’s

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Whiting
---Hood
5 AL Bn, 18 GA, 1 TX, 4 TX, 5 TX

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Whiting
---Whiting/Law
4 AL, 2 MS, 11 MS, 6 NC

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Wilcox
---GT Anderson
7 GA, 8 GA, 9 GA, 11 GA

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Wilcox
---Toombs
1 GA Regs, 2 GA, 15 GA, 17 GA, 38 VA

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Wilcox
---Wilcox
9 AL, 10 AL, 11 AL, 19 MS

JEJ
-Jackson
--Ewell
---Elzey
1 MD, 3 TN, 13 VA, 16 VA

JEJ
-Jackson
--Ewell
---Taylor
1 LA Bn, 6 LA, 7 LA, 8 LA, 9 LA, 24 LA

JEJ
-Jackson
--Ewell
---Trimble
15 AL, 21 GA, 16 MS, 21 NC

JEJ
-Jackson
--Lovell
---Armistead
57 VA, 1 SC Reg, 1 SC, 44 NC, 45 NC

JEJ
-Jackson
--Lovell
---Carroll
37 TN, 39 TN, 43 TN, 47 TN

JEJ
-Jackson
--Lovell
---Garland
4 FL, 5 FL, 6 TX, 7 TX

JEJ
-Jackson
--Stonewall
---Burks
1 VA Bn, 21 VA, 42 VA, 48 VA

JEJ
-Jackson
--Stonewall
---Fulkerson
10 VA, 23 VA, 37 VA

JEJ
-Jackson
--Stonewall
---Garnett
2 VA, 4 VA, 5 VA, 27 VA, 33 VA

JEJ
-Longstreet
--AP Hill
---AP Hill
1 VA, 7 VA, 11 VA, 17 VA

JEJ
-Longstreet
--AP Hill
---DR Jones
4 SC, 5 SC, 6 SC, 9 SC

JEJ
-Longstreet
--AP Hill
---Pickett
8 VA, 18 VA, 19 VA, 28 VA

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Early
---Early
20 GA, 5 NC, 23 NC, 24 VA

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Early
---Kershaw
2 SC, 3 SC, 7 SC, 8 SC

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Early
---Rodes
5 AL, 6 AL, 12 AL, 12 MS

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Field
---Field
40 VA, 55 VA, 60 VA, 2 FL

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Field
---French
2 AR Bn, 35 GA, 22 NC, 47 VA

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Field
---SR Anderson
1 TN PA, 7 TN, 14 TN, 5 LA

MID
-Kirby Smith
--Cumberland Gap
---Leadbetter
20 AL, 23 AL, 39 NC

MID
-Kirby Smith
--Cumberland Gap
---Rains-CG
34 TN, 29 NC, 42 GA, 11 TN

MID
-Kirby Smith
--E Johnson
---Connor
12 GA, 25 VA, 31 VA

MID
-Kirby Smith
--E Johnson
---Scott
44 VA, 52 VA, 58 VA

MID
-Kirby Smith
--Heth
---Heth
22 VA, 45 VA, 35 VA, 59 VA

MID
-Kirby Smith
--Marshall
---Marshall
5 KY, 29 VA, 54 VA, 21 VA Bn

MID
-Kirby Smith
--McCulloch
---Barton
16 SC, 17 SC, 42 TN, 53 TN

MID
-Kirby Smith
--McCulloch
---Evans
43 GA, 47 GA, 48 GA

MID
-Kirby Smith
--McCulloch
---Taylor
49 NC, 61 GA, 36 VA

OTHER
-
--
---DID NOT COMPLETE
33 GA, 37 GA, 43 VA

OTHER
-
--
---DID NOT EXIST
28 MS

OTHER
-
--
---DISBANDED
2 AL, 7 AL, 20 VA, 39 VA, 54 TN, 1 KY

OTHER
-
--Arkansas
---ORGANIZING
5 MO

OTHER
-
--Charleston
---Gist
46 GA, 24 SC, 8 GA Bn

OTHER
-
--Fort Donelson
---Head
30 TN, 49 TN, 50 TN, 1 TN Bn

OTHER
-
--Fort Heiman
---Fort Heiman Garrison
29 MS, 30 MS, 31 MS

OTHER
-
--Fort Henry
---Fort Henry Garrison (Tilghman)
25 LA, 26 LA, 27 LA

OTHER
-
--Georgia
---Georgia garrison
34 GA, 52 GA

OTHER
-
--Georgia
---Savannah garrison
1 GA, 29 GA, 30 GA, 32 GA

OTHER
-
--Island No 10
---Marks
11 LA, 12 LA, 5 LA Bn

OTHER
-
--Mobile
---Mobile garrison
1 AL, 32 AL, 3 FL

OTHER
-
--Murfreesboro NC
---
32 NC

OTHER
-
--New Bern
---New Bern Garrison
42 NC, 43 NC

OTHER
-
--New Madrid
---Gantt
56 TN, 11 AR, 12 AR

OTHER
-
--New Madrid
---LM Walker
1 AL TN MS, 40 TN, 46 TN

OTHER
-
--New Orleans
---New Orleans Garrison
3 MS, 21 LA, 22 LA, 23 LA

OTHER
-
--Norfolk
---Blanchard
1 LA, 3 GA, 4 GA, 22 GA

OTHER
-
--North Carolina
---New Bern Garrison
27 NC

OTHER
-
--North Carolina
---NOT INFANTRY
9 NC, 10 NC, 19 NC, 36 NC, 40 NC, 41 NC

OTHER
-
--North Carolina
---Roanoke Inlet Garrison
8 NC, 17 NC, 31 NC

OTHER
-
--Pensacola
---Pensacola garrison
8 MS, 27 MS, 1 FL

OTHER
-
--Raleigh
---ORGANIZING
46 NC, 47 NC, 50 NC, 51 NC

OTHER
-
--South Carolina
---Port Royal Garrison
11 SC, 15 SC, 18 SC

OTHER
-
--Texas
---Texas garrison
3 TX, 8 TX, 12 TX

OTHER
-
--Wilmington
---Fort Fisher Garrison
11 NC, 20 NC, 30 NC

OTHER
-
--Yorktown
---Gloucester
34 VA

OTHER
-
--Yorktown
---Pryor
8 AL, 14 AL, 14 LA

OTHER
-
--Yorktown
---Williamsburg
32 VA

REL
-Holmes
--Huger
---Armistead
9 VA, 14 VA, 53 VA, 5 VA Bn

REL
-Holmes
--Huger
---Colston
3 VA, 13 NC, 14 NC, 33 NC

REL
-Holmes
--Huger
---Mahone
3 AL, 12 VA, 41 VA, 6 VA

REL
-Holmes
--Magruder
---Cobb
16 GA, 24 GA, Cobb’s, 15 NC, 2 LA

REL
-Holmes
--Magruder
---McLaws
10 LA, 15 LA, 10 GA, 15 VA, Noland Bn

REL
-Holmes
--Magruder
---Rains
13 AL, 26 AL, 6 GA, 23 GA

REL
-Pemberton
--JR Anderson
---Branch
7 NC, 12 NC, 18 NC, 28 NC

REL
-Pemberton
--JR Anderson
---JR Anderson
45 GA, 1 SC Rifles, 49 GA, 34 NC, 38 NC

REL
-Pemberton
--JR Anderson
---Wise
26 VA, 46 VA, 59 VA, 3 LA Bn, 37 NC

REL
-Pemberton
--Ransom
---Gregg
1 SC PA, 12 SC, 13 SC, 14 SC

REL
-Pemberton
--Ransom
---Lawton
13 GA, 26 GA, 31 GA, 38 GA, 60 GA

REL
-Pemberton
--Ransom
---Ransom
24 NC, 25 NC, 26 NC, 35 NC, 48 NC



 
Don't forget that the Antietam numbers are artificially deflated because of the disruption to the army at that time. AP Hill's division is on the July 20 reports where it has 10,651 officers and men (Confederate) PFD and 15,436 men AP.


AP Hill​
Date​
PFD​
AP​
20 Jul 1862​
10651​
15436​
22 Sep 1862​
4777​
5468​
30 Sep 1862​
7382​
9103​
10 Oct 1862​
8699​
10596​
20 Oct 1862​
9491​
10891​
10 Nov 1862​
10572​
12239​

The most parlous explanation to me is that the 22 September numbers are the anomaly. Essentially for the 4500 post-Antietam number to be correct AP Hill would have to have suffered about 6,000 casualties (PFD) or 10,000 (AP) in the Second Bull Run campaign and at Antietam, and he wasn't engaged to that level - but he did do a lot of very hard marching, which would have made his force straggle on top of the casualties he did have.

Note that the 10 November number in AP is still 3,000 down on the 20 Jul number. Accounting for return of casualties this might reflect the actual number of unrecoverable casualties AP Hill suffered over this time. (His Aggregate Present and Absent goes down by 5,000 over the same period, though.)
In marching north for the Antietam campaign, straggling and desertion in Lee's army was rampant. After Antietam, many of these absentees returned to the army, once again swelling the ranks.

History Net had this to say about the staggering decline in Lee's army.

It is believed that Lee had no more than 40,000 men at Sharpsburg. The months of campaigning and fighting had taken its toll. The average Confederate regiment numbered 166 men. Some had less. The 8th Georgia carried 85 officers and men into battle, while the 8th Virginia had 34 men and the 1st Louisiana Battalion numbered an amazing 17 combatants. At the other end of the spectrum, Longstreet’s regiments averaged around 360 in the ranks, and the 3rd North Carolina, recently augmented with conscripts, numbered 983.

Emerging Civil War says:

Instead, what interests me is: what happened to Lee’s army?

It is a much less well-known fact that we do have pretty good numbers for Lee’s strength on September 2, 1862, two days before he crossed into Maryland. Those numbers are surprising, even shocking.

Lee had just fought the battle of Second Manassas, where he won a victory over John Pope, but suffered heavily in the process. He made up for those casualties, however, with reinforcements brought up from Richmond, under D. H. Hill. Thus, on September 2nd, Robert E. Lee’s present-for-duty strength numbered no less than 75,528 officers and men – far larger than the force he led into action just fifteen days later.

Headquarters – 6

Longstreet’s command – 19,628

Anderson’s Division – 5,712

Jackson’s Command – 20,612

Stuart’s Cavalry – 5,664

Reinforcing column

McLaws’ Division – 7,652

D. H. Hill’s Division – 9,794

Walker’s Division – 5,159

Reserve Artillery – 1,299

total: 75,528

The source for these numbers is an obscure but highly important unpublished thesis:

John Owen Allen, The Strengths of the Union and Confederate Forces at Second Manassas, Master’s Thesis, George Mason University, 1993.

To arrive at his numbers, Owen delved deeply into the Confederate Company Muster Rolls and Regimental Returns of RG 109, Captured Confederate records, in the National Archives. None of those records made it into the Official Records, but they do go a long way towards compensating for the relative lack of tri-monthly returns for the Army of Northern Virginia during this period.

These numbers suggest a couple of things:

First, that the much-maligned George B. McClellan was more correct than usually given credit for in estimating Lee’s strength. On September 8, McClellan reported that Lee had 110,000 men at Frederick. If in fact Lee had 75,000 men present for duty on September 2, his “aggregate present” number was considerably higher – at least 90,000 men, perhaps 100,000 – aggregate numbers were usually 20 to 25% higher than present for duty numbers, and 30% higher than what the Confederates typically reported as “effectives” (enlisted men only, ready to fight.) The aggregate figure – used by both sides – represented the total number of men with an army, not just those ready for combat, and the total number of mouths to feed. In terms of intelligence gathering, it would also be the most common basis for estimating enemy strength. After all, spies would be counting bodies and estimating sizes of formations. With a present for duty strength of 75,000, Lee’s aggregate would be around 94,000 men.

That alone is a pretty interesting conclusion, and one that upsets the conventional wisdom apple-cart where George B. McClellan is concerned.

But it also suggests that Robert E. Lee’s army was starting to unravel.

If the Antietam number estimates are accurate, at least one third of the Army of Northern Virginia’s combat strength melted away within a fortnight of September 2nd. If Carman’s 37,351 engaged number is correct, then no less than half of Lee’s army disappeared due to straggling and desertion within that two week period.

There have long been explanations addressing this decline in numbers: ranging from poor supplies and the ragged condition of the troops to southern reluctance to be perceived as “invaders” rather than defending their home soil. I think the first two reasons raise legitimate points, but the third stretches credulity: it smacks of post-justification rather than reality at the time. Some few men might have fallen out for that reason, but half the army? Really?

And to some extent, the losses of the Harper’s Ferry and South Mountain operations are buried within those numbers; not every one of those missing 25,000 men (at least) were stragglers.

But a better explanation is that Lee’s string of triumphs that summer came at a much higher price than previously supposed: The army was simply marched and fought into the ground by September.

Certainly no one can argue that the troops that captured Harper’s Ferry, defended South Mountain, or stood their ground at Antietam Creek had lost combat effectiveness. But the defections do raise the question: how much more active campaigning could the army stand? What if Lee had gone on into Pennsylvania that fall?

I first encountered these numbers in the late 1990s, in my previous incarnation as a designer of cardboard wargames. Any wargamer is deeply interested in numbers, and Antietam, as the number of games about that battle attest, is a deeply studied subject.

Surprisingly, aside from the late Dr. Joseph Harsh (who headed the History Department at George Mason when Owen produced his study) and the more recent To Antietam Creek by Scott Hartwig, few scholars have cited Owen’s work – which is a pity, given the number of important questions Owen’s numbers raise about the state of the Army of Northern Virginia as it crossed into Maryland.


 
In marching north for the Antietam campaign, straggling and desertion in Lee's army was rampant. After Antietam, many of these absentees returned to the army, once again swelling the ranks.
I think the problem with the idea that this (that the Confederate army was massively diminished by men who didn't cross into Maryland) is that it's actually a circular argument - or, to be more precise, the scale of it is through circular means.

We first have to note that our starting point is that the Confederate army was large after Second Bull Run - that is (as you mention) around 75,000 PFD, though this may actually be Confederate PFD instead of Union PFD.

We then have to ask how strong the army actually was at Antietam itself. Going through unit by unit, the number that we get is around 47,000 effectives as part of the formed units on the field (which would mean about 2/3 of the men who could have shown up actually did so, given that one brigade was left at Harpers Ferry and there were South Mountain casualties).

Our third step is to ask what % of their theoretical strength the Union troops (who did not leave thousands of men south of the Potomac) could get into line, and we have the most complete data for the Union 1st Corps. This unit also managed to get about 2/3 of their PFD into the actual line of battle, and the cause of the discrepancy there is threefold:

- Men who fell out of line behind their unit during the march to Antietam.
- Men who stayed with the corps but fell out of contact with their unit (that is, they were still with the moving body of the army, but could not be found to generate the line of battle itself).
- Men who could not have been put into line of battle anyway. (This always happens and it is typically about 1/6 of the PFD which cannot be converted into Effectives - basically the "rear area" troops for each individual regiment/brigade/division).

Now, the Confederates would have had the same effects going on, and it seems to have been to the same level of effect as 1st Corps. The main differences there are that (1) some of the men who fell out of line behind the Confederates would have been swept up by the Union vanguard and become prisoners, and indeed there were thousands of prisoners taken during the South Mountain-Antietam sequence which may include these men, and (2) the heaviest marching done by Confederate units was south of the Potomac but it was on the march by Jackson to Harpers Ferry followed by the march by McLaws and Jackson from Harpers Ferry to Sharpsburg. These would be men who crossed the Potomac north, went to Harpers Ferry (crossing the Potomac south one way or another) and then didn't cross the Potomac north for a second time.


The remaining question is - how many men, exactly, refused to cross? There's no significant first hand evidence for there being anything like the tens of thousands there "should" have been, and it all rests on trying to reconcile the claims by Lee (and Lost Cause sources, and sources who base their analysis on Lost Cause sources) of Lee's weakness at Antietam with the actual data in the records of Lee's strength once his army was pulled back together.
We should at least consider the idea that Lee was not as weak as is claimed.


I certainly think that Lee's army straggled, more than normal, but I think the same thing happened to the Union army. It was a campaign with a lot of hard marching, and critically there isn't any kind of evidence of thousands upon thousands of Confederates in Loudoun Valley in the September 2-20 period except for when they were part of the known movements of Lee's entire army. That many men would have been hard to miss.
 
So here's the list, which includes my assignations as to their roles except for the "notional spare field corps" (the troops of which are instead left assigned to coastal defence etc).


I constructed this essentially to make sure I wasn't missing any regiments which actually existed, by checking all the "missing spots" in the ORBAT.

ASJ
-Bragg
--Breckinridge
---Bowen
9 AR, 10 AR, 2 CS, 25 MS

ASJ
-Bragg
--Breckinridge
---Statham
15 MS, 19 TN, 20 TN, 28 TN, 45 TN

ASJ
-Bragg
--Breckinridge
---Trabue
4 AL Bn, 3 KY, 4 KY, 6 KY, TN Bn

ASJ
-Bragg
--Ruggles
---Gibson
1 AR, 4 LA, 13 LA, 19 LA

ASJ
-Bragg
--Ruggles
---P Anderson
1 FL Bn, 17 LA, 20 LA, 9 TX

ASJ
-Bragg
--Ruggles
---Pond
16 LA, 18 LA, Crescent LA, Orleans Bn, 38 TN

ASJ
-Bragg
--Withers
---Chalmers
5 MS, 7 MS, 9 MS, 10 MS

ASJ
-Bragg
--Withers
---Gladden
21 AL, 22 AL, 25 AL, 19 AL, 1 LA Regulars

ASJ
-Bragg
--Withers
---Jackson
17 AL, 18 AL, 5 GA, 2 TX, 24 AL

ASJ
-Hardee
--Cleburne
---Cleburne
15 AR, 2 TN, 6 MS, 24 TN, 48 TN

ASJ
-Hardee
--Cleburne
---Gardner
30 AL, 35 AL, 35 TN, 39 AL

ASJ
-Hardee
--Cleburne
---Hawthorn
33 AL, 17 TN, 21 TN, 23 TN

ASJ
-Hardee
--Hindman
---Liddel
2 AR, 5 AR, 6 AR, 7 AR, 8 AR

ASJ
-Hardee
--Hindman
---Marmaduke
3 CS, 25 TN, 29 TN, 36 TN

ASJ
-Hardee
--Hindman
---Wood
16 AL, 32 MS, 33 MS, 55 TN, 44 TN

ASJ
-Hardee
--Pemberton
---Drayton
3 SC Bn, Phillips, 50 GA, 51 GA

ASJ
-Hardee
--Pemberton
---Mercer
25 GA, 36 GA, 39 GA, 40 GA

ASJ
-Hardee
--Pemberton
---Trapier
28 AL, 34 AL, 10 SC, 19 SC

ASJ
-Polk
--Cheatham
---Donelson
8 TN, 15 TN, 16 TN, 51 TN

ASJ
-Polk
--Cheatham
---Maney
1 TN, 6 TN, 9 TN, 27 TN

ASJ
-Polk
--Cheatham
---Maxey
41 GA, 24 MS, 23 MS, 26 MS

ASJ
-Polk
--Clark
---Clark
31 AL, 22 MS, 10 TN, 26 TN

ASJ
-Polk
--Clark
---Stewart
13 AR, 4 TN, 5 TN, 31 TN, 33 TN

ASJ
-Polk
--Clark
---Wharton
51 VA, 50 VA, 56 VA, 20 MS

ASJ
-Polk
--Johnson
---Buckner
2 KY, 14 MS, 41 TN, 3 TN (Brown), 18 TN, 32 TN

ASJ
-Polk
--Johnson
---Floyd
27 AL, 29 AL, 1 MS, 4 MS

ASJ
-Polk
--Johnson
---Pillow
12 TN, 13 TN, 22 TN, 154 Senior TN

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Maury
---Dockery
18 AR, 19 AR, 20 AR, McCairns’ AR Bn

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Maury
---Moore
Hobbs’ AR, Adams’ AR, 25 MO, MO St Gd 5

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Maury
---Phifer
52 TN, 3 AR Dis, 6 TX Dis, 9 TX Dis

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sam Jones
---Green
1 MO, 4 MO, MO Bn, Mo Cav Bn Dis

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sam Jones
---Hebert
14 AR, 17 AR, 3 LA, Whitfield’s

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sam Jones
---Little
16 AR, 2 MO, 3 MO, MO Bn

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sterling Price
---Churchill
4 AR, 1 AR Rifle Dis, 2 AR Rifle Dis, 4 AR Bn, Turnbull’s BN

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sterling Price
---Hogg
McCrays AR, 10 TX Dis, 11 TX Dis, 14 TX Dis

ASJ
-Van Dorn
--Sterling Price
---Rust
MO St Gd 1, MO St Gd 2, MO St Gd 3, MO St Gd 4

JEJ
-GW Smith
--DH Hill
---Featherston/GB Anderson
27 GA, 28 GA, 4 NC, 49 VA

JEJ
-GW Smith
--DH Hill
---Griffith
13 MS, 17 MS, 18 MS, 21 MS

JEJ
-GW Smith
--DH Hill
---Walker
3 AR, 1 NC, 2 NC, 3 NC, 44 GA, 30 VA

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Whiting
---Hampton
14 GA, 19 GA, 16 NC, Hampton’s

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Whiting
---Hood
5 AL Bn, 18 GA, 1 TX, 4 TX, 5 TX

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Whiting
---Whiting/Law
4 AL, 2 MS, 11 MS, 6 NC

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Wilcox
---GT Anderson
7 GA, 8 GA, 9 GA, 11 GA

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Wilcox
---Toombs
1 GA Regs, 2 GA, 15 GA, 17 GA, 38 VA

JEJ
-GW Smith
--Wilcox
---Wilcox
9 AL, 10 AL, 11 AL, 19 MS

JEJ
-Jackson
--Ewell
---Elzey
1 MD, 3 TN, 13 VA, 16 VA

JEJ
-Jackson
--Ewell
---Taylor
1 LA Bn, 6 LA, 7 LA, 8 LA, 9 LA, 24 LA

JEJ
-Jackson
--Ewell
---Trimble
15 AL, 21 GA, 16 MS, 21 NC

JEJ
-Jackson
--Lovell
---Armistead
57 VA, 1 SC Reg, 1 SC, 44 NC, 45 NC

JEJ
-Jackson
--Lovell
---Carroll
37 TN, 39 TN, 43 TN, 47 TN

JEJ
-Jackson
--Lovell
---Garland
4 FL, 5 FL, 6 TX, 7 TX

JEJ
-Jackson
--Stonewall
---Burks
1 VA Bn, 21 VA, 42 VA, 48 VA

JEJ
-Jackson
--Stonewall
---Fulkerson
10 VA, 23 VA, 37 VA

JEJ
-Jackson
--Stonewall
---Garnett
2 VA, 4 VA, 5 VA, 27 VA, 33 VA

JEJ
-Longstreet
--AP Hill
---AP Hill
1 VA, 7 VA, 11 VA, 17 VA

JEJ
-Longstreet
--AP Hill
---DR Jones
4 SC, 5 SC, 6 SC, 9 SC

JEJ
-Longstreet
--AP Hill
---Pickett
8 VA, 18 VA, 19 VA, 28 VA

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Early
---Early
20 GA, 5 NC, 23 NC, 24 VA

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Early
---Kershaw
2 SC, 3 SC, 7 SC, 8 SC

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Early
---Rodes
5 AL, 6 AL, 12 AL, 12 MS

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Field
---Field
40 VA, 55 VA, 60 VA, 2 FL

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Field
---French
2 AR Bn, 35 GA, 22 NC, 47 VA

JEJ
-Longstreet
--Field
---SR Anderson
1 TN PA, 7 TN, 14 TN, 5 LA

MID
-Kirby Smith
--Cumberland Gap
---Leadbetter
20 AL, 23 AL, 39 NC

MID
-Kirby Smith
--Cumberland Gap
---Rains-CG
34 TN, 29 NC, 42 GA, 11 TN

MID
-Kirby Smith
--E Johnson
---Connor
12 GA, 25 VA, 31 VA

MID
-Kirby Smith
--E Johnson
---Scott
44 VA, 52 VA, 58 VA

MID
-Kirby Smith
--Heth
---Heth
22 VA, 45 VA, 35 VA, 59 VA

MID
-Kirby Smith
--Marshall
---Marshall
5 KY, 29 VA, 54 VA, 21 VA Bn

MID
-Kirby Smith
--McCulloch
---Barton
16 SC, 17 SC, 42 TN, 53 TN

MID
-Kirby Smith
--McCulloch
---Evans
43 GA, 47 GA, 48 GA

MID
-Kirby Smith
--McCulloch
---Taylor
49 NC, 61 GA, 36 VA

OTHER
-
--
---DID NOT COMPLETE
33 GA, 37 GA, 43 VA

OTHER
-
--
---DID NOT EXIST
28 MS

OTHER
-
--
---DISBANDED
2 AL, 7 AL, 20 VA, 39 VA, 54 TN, 1 KY

OTHER
-
--Arkansas
---ORGANIZING
5 MO

OTHER
-
--Charleston
---Gist
46 GA, 24 SC, 8 GA Bn

OTHER
-
--Fort Donelson
---Head
30 TN, 49 TN, 50 TN, 1 TN Bn

OTHER
-
--Fort Heiman
---Fort Heiman Garrison
29 MS, 30 MS, 31 MS

OTHER
-
--Fort Henry
---Fort Henry Garrison (Tilghman)
25 LA, 26 LA, 27 LA

OTHER
-
--Georgia
---Georgia garrison
34 GA, 52 GA

OTHER
-
--Georgia
---Savannah garrison
1 GA, 29 GA, 30 GA, 32 GA

OTHER
-
--Island No 10
---Marks
11 LA, 12 LA, 5 LA Bn

OTHER
-
--Mobile
---Mobile garrison
1 AL, 32 AL, 3 FL

OTHER
-
--Murfreesboro NC
---
32 NC

OTHER
-
--New Bern
---New Bern Garrison
42 NC, 43 NC

OTHER
-
--New Madrid
---Gantt
56 TN, 11 AR, 12 AR

OTHER
-
--New Madrid
---LM Walker
1 AL TN MS, 40 TN, 46 TN

OTHER
-
--New Orleans
---New Orleans Garrison
3 MS, 21 LA, 22 LA, 23 LA

OTHER
-
--Norfolk
---Blanchard
1 LA, 3 GA, 4 GA, 22 GA

OTHER
-
--North Carolina
---New Bern Garrison
27 NC

OTHER
-
--North Carolina
---NOT INFANTRY
9 NC, 10 NC, 19 NC, 36 NC, 40 NC, 41 NC

OTHER
-
--North Carolina
---Roanoke Inlet Garrison
8 NC, 17 NC, 31 NC

OTHER
-
--Pensacola
---Pensacola garrison
8 MS, 27 MS, 1 FL

OTHER
-
--Raleigh
---ORGANIZING
46 NC, 47 NC, 50 NC, 51 NC

OTHER
-
--South Carolina
---Port Royal Garrison
11 SC, 15 SC, 18 SC

OTHER
-
--Texas
---Texas garrison
3 TX, 8 TX, 12 TX

OTHER
-
--Wilmington
---Fort Fisher Garrison
11 NC, 20 NC, 30 NC

OTHER
-
--Yorktown
---Gloucester
34 VA

OTHER
-
--Yorktown
---Pryor
8 AL, 14 AL, 14 LA

OTHER
-
--Yorktown
---Williamsburg
32 VA

REL
-Holmes
--Huger
---Armistead
9 VA, 14 VA, 53 VA, 5 VA Bn

REL
-Holmes
--Huger
---Colston
3 VA, 13 NC, 14 NC, 33 NC

REL
-Holmes
--Huger
---Mahone
3 AL, 12 VA, 41 VA, 6 VA

REL
-Holmes
--Magruder
---Cobb
16 GA, 24 GA, Cobb’s, 15 NC, 2 LA

REL
-Holmes
--Magruder
---McLaws
10 LA, 15 LA, 10 GA, 15 VA, Noland Bn

REL
-Holmes
--Magruder
---Rains
13 AL, 26 AL, 6 GA, 23 GA

REL
-Pemberton
--JR Anderson
---Branch
7 NC, 12 NC, 18 NC, 28 NC

REL
-Pemberton
--JR Anderson
---JR Anderson
45 GA, 1 SC Rifles, 49 GA, 34 NC, 38 NC

REL
-Pemberton
--JR Anderson
---Wise
26 VA, 46 VA, 59 VA, 3 LA Bn, 37 NC

REL
-Pemberton
--Ransom
---Gregg
1 SC PA, 12 SC, 13 SC, 14 SC

REL
-Pemberton
--Ransom
---Lawton
13 GA, 26 GA, 31 GA, 38 GA, 60 GA

REL
-Pemberton
--Ransom
---Ransom
24 NC, 25 NC, 26 NC, 35 NC, 48 NC

Very comprehensive! Though the "REL" designation is presumably the "notional corps" under Robert E. Lee you were speaking of?
 
... There's no significant first hand evidence for there being anything like the tens of thousands there "should" have been ... there isn't any kind of evidence of thousands upon thousands of Confederates in Loudoun Valley in the September 2-20 period ....

Except there is evidence.

John Esten Cooke (on Stuart's staff), from 1866: "This great crowd toiled on painfully in the wake of the' army, dragging themselves five or six miles a day; and when they came to the Potomac, near Leesburg, it was only to find that General Lee had swept on, that General McClellan's column was between them and him, and that they could not rejoin their commands. The citizens of that whole region, who fed these unfortunate persons, will bear testimony that numbers sufficient to constitute an army in themselves, passed the Blue Ridge to rendezvous, by General Lee's orders, at Winchester."

Comte De Paris: "For a few days the passes of the Blue Ridge were thronged with these men, numbering, it is said, from twenty to thirty thousand, who were struggling with great difficulty to reach the rendezvous which had been indicated to them"

Henry Alexander White from his book on Lee: "Winchester he had designated as a depot for Confederate supplies and as a rendezvous for the great army of stragglers yet south of the Potomac ... From Leesburg alone came ten thousand barefooted veterans."
 
Very comprehensive! Though the "REL" designation is presumably the "notional corps" under Robert E. Lee you were speaking of?
Not really. I broke it up as:

- JEJ: Joseph E. Johnston's existing army, possibly slightly reinforced. It has the three triangular corps of GW Smith, Longstreet and Jackson, and totals 115 infantry regiments.
- REL: Lee's army of reinforcement divisions stripped from the coast in my first pass, partly comprised of historical Seven Days reinforcements but not entirely. It's large enough that it is itself broken up into two binary corps, and totals 54 infantry regiments.
- ASJ: AS Johnston's army in the West, which I bulked up to make four complete corps under Hardee, Polk, Bragg and Van Dorn. Each of these corps is triangular and the total comes to 156 infantry regiments.
- MID: The troops in the middle (i.e. in the mountains and at the Cumberland Gap). This command is corps sized in its own right, though not concentrated in one place, and totals 31 infantry regiments.

In addition to these categories, there are troops which I had not assigned when I made the spreadsheet. These are marked as OTHER, and total 68 regiments (four of which were organizing at Raleigh at the time), of which 46 were coastal. Based on this I concluded an additional corps could be formed on top of the above allocations.
 
I think the problem with the idea that this (that the Confederate army was massively diminished by men who didn't cross into Maryland) is that it's actually a circular argument - or, to be more precise, the scale of it is through circular means.

We first have to note that our starting point is that the Confederate army was large after Second Bull Run - that is (as you mention) around 75,000 PFD, though this may actually be Confederate PFD instead of Union PFD.

We then have to ask how strong the army actually was at Antietam itself. Going through unit by unit, the number that we get is around 47,000 effectives as part of the formed units on the field (which would mean about 2/3 of the men who could have shown up actually did so, given that one brigade was left at Harpers Ferry and there were South Mountain casualties).

Our third step is to ask what % of their theoretical strength the Union troops (who did not leave thousands of men south of the Potomac) could get into line, and we have the most complete data for the Union 1st Corps. This unit also managed to get about 2/3 of their PFD into the actual line of battle, and the cause of the discrepancy there is threefold:

- Men who fell out of line behind their unit during the march to Antietam.
- Men who stayed with the corps but fell out of contact with their unit (that is, they were still with the moving body of the army, but could not be found to generate the line of battle itself).
- Men who could not have been put into line of battle anyway. (This always happens and it is typically about 1/6 of the PFD which cannot be converted into Effectives - basically the "rear area" troops for each individual regiment/brigade/division).

Now, the Confederates would have had the same effects going on, and it seems to have been to the same level of effect as 1st Corps. The main differences there are that (1) some of the men who fell out of line behind the Confederates would have been swept up by the Union vanguard and become prisoners, and indeed there were thousands of prisoners taken during the South Mountain-Antietam sequence which may include these men, and (2) the heaviest marching done by Confederate units was south of the Potomac but it was on the march by Jackson to Harpers Ferry followed by the march by McLaws and Jackson from Harpers Ferry to Sharpsburg. These would be men who crossed the Potomac north, went to Harpers Ferry (crossing the Potomac south one way or another) and then didn't cross the Potomac north for a second time.


The remaining question is - how many men, exactly, refused to cross? There's no significant first hand evidence for there being anything like the tens of thousands there "should" have been, and it all rests on trying to reconcile the claims by Lee (and Lost Cause sources, and sources who base their analysis on Lost Cause sources) of Lee's weakness at Antietam with the actual data in the records of Lee's strength once his army was pulled back together.
We should at least consider the idea that Lee was not as weak as is claimed.


I certainly think that Lee's army straggled, more than normal, but I think the same thing happened to the Union army. It was a campaign with a lot of hard marching, and critically there isn't any kind of evidence of thousands upon thousands of Confederates in Loudoun Valley in the September 2-20 period except for when they were part of the known movements of Lee's entire army. That many men would have been hard to miss.

I doubt that Freeman was a contributor to your "circular argument".

Douglas Southall Freeman:
R. E. Lee



Lee withdrew his command on September 20 to the vicinity of Martinsburg,21​ in order to maneuver to the westward, to pass over the Potomac again at Williamsport, to move on to Hagerstown, and to defeat McClellan.22​ If that could not be done, his plan was to occupy the enemy on the frontier, and, should the occasion require, to enter the Shenandoah Valley.23​ But it could not be. Even with stragglers who had come up, he had only 36,418 infantry present for duty on September 22.24​ Absentees were scattered through a wide country. Thousands had no shoes, no blankets, and scarcely any garments.25​ Lee called vigorously for clothing and footgear and urged stern measures against straggling,26​ but for the time his initiative was paralyzed. He had to forgo all his plans for further maneuver in Maryland in order to collect stragglers and refit the ragged faithful.

24 O R 19, part 2, p 621



Lee's disciplinary measures were incident to his effort to increase the army's strength and were of three sorts — the collection of stragglers, recruitment, and reorganization under competent officers. Continuing his efforts to procure stern legislation for dealing with straggler, he had the nearby country combed for them. J. R. Jones reported from the Shenandoah Valley that he had sent back between 5000 and 6000 by September 27, and on October 8 Secretary Randolph noted with satisfaction that the strength of the army had increased by 20,000 in eight days.10​ Convalescents were forwarded in considerable numbers

By October 10, Lee had 64,273 present for duty; by October 20 he could count 68,033; and according to the tri-monthly return of November 10 he had 70,909,13​ though he did not then consider that he had half enough men to resist the enemy on even terms.14​

12​ O. R., 19, part 2, pp643, 657, 679; Welch, 34; 1 R. W. C. D., 168.


13​ O. R., 19, part 2, pp660, 674, 713.



14​ 1 R. W. C. D., 187.
 
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