Census and ACW Dead

[Fairfield]

Please forgive if I've posted in an incorrect category--I was unsure.

Based on census records, a new estimate of the number killed in the Civil War has been determined: "Our national estimate is 698,000 Civil War deaths. This is substantially higher than the conventional historical estimate of 618,000 but lower than the most recent estimate of around 750,000 deaths based on a 1% census sample". The full article: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2414919121?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

 

[lupaglupa]

I saw this last night - what a fascinating new way to look at deaths. No surprise that the numbers are so much higher in the South.

 

[UncleJohnCT]

Interesting research that helps us understand the terrible tool of the war. As research and analysis tools become more powerful, we'll get more granular data and deeper insights

 

[Baltimoronic]

With Illinois and Louisiana topping the lists for northern and southern death rates, it made me wonder if regiments from those states had particularly lethal service records. Or maybe it has to do with those states having relatively smaller populations at the time. Will be interesting to see where the research goes.

 

[Story]

Please forgive if I've posted in an incorrect category--I was unsure.

Based on census records, a new estimate of the number killed in the Civil War has been determined: "Our national estimate is 698,000 Civil War deaths. This is substantially higher than the conventional historical estimate of 618,000 but lower than the most recent estimate of around 750,000 deaths based on a 1% census sample". The full article: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2414919121?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

This sentence is chock full of Scrabble words.

Second, while the sex-differential census comparison method is effective for generating a national estimate of the death toll where out-of-country migration is negligible, it is not suitable for inferring excess mortality estimates in subnational geographies due to significant levels of intercensal migration across regions, states, and counties.

 

[lupaglupa]

This sentence is chock full of Scrabble words.

Second, while the sex-differential census comparison method is effective for generating a national estimate of the death toll where out-of-country migration is negligible, it is not suitable for inferring excess mortality estimates in subnational geographies due to significant levels of intercensal migration across regions, states, and counties.

In all fairness, this is an academic text.

 

[firstflabn]

Garbage in; garbage out. The error range in Table 2 represents a 100% swing. No point within that range is any more likely to represent the true value than any other - the casual reader is naturally drawn to the center point, but the method cannot support that; it's an inherent limitation. Another name for this is 'wild guess.'