Seems as though it's secession (get it?) into the Union didn't make much of a difference.
I don't really get what you mean. The future of the Virginia of 1860 in no way would resemble the future of the Virginia of 1865, I would say the loss of territory made a big difference to Virginia and the sequestering of western Virginia into a new state derailed the future of the people contained there.
As James G. Blaine wrote:
To the old State of Virginia the blow was a heavy one. In the
years following the war it added seriously to her financial embarrass-
ment, and it has in many ways obstructed her prosperity. As a
punitive measure, for the chastening of Virginia, it cannot be de-
fended. Assuredly there was no ground for distressing Virginia by
penal enactments that did not apply equally to every other State of
the Confederacy. Common justice revolts at the selection of one
man for punishment from eleven who have all been guilty of the
same offense. If punishment had been designed there was equal
reason for stripping Texas of her vast domain and for withdrawing
the numerous land grants which had been generously made by the
National Government to many of the States in rebellion. But
Texas was allowed to emerge from the contest without the forfeiture
of an acre, and Congress, so far from withdrawing the land grants
by which other Southern States were to be enriched, took pains to
renew them in the years succeeding the war. The autonomy of
Virginia alone was disturbed. Upon Virginia alone fell the penalty,
which if due to any was due to all.
Another consideration is of great weight. An innocent third
party was involved. Virginia owed a large debt, held in great part
by loyal citizens of the North and by subjects of foreign countries.
The burden was already as heavy as she could bear in her entirety,
and dismemberment so crippled her that she could not meet her
obligations.
...
Nor should it be forgotten that the State of Virginia before the
war might well be regarded as the creditor and not the debtor of
the National Government. One of her earliest acts of patriotism as
an independent State was the cession to the General Government of
her superb domain on the north side of the Ohio River, from the sale
of which more than one hundred millions of dollars have been paid
into the National Treasury. A suggestive contrast is presented to-
day between the condition of Virginia and the condition of Texas
and Florida. It was the aggressive disunionism of the two latter
States which aided powerfully in dragging Virginia into rebellion.
But for the urgency of the seven original Confederate States, in
which Texas and Florida were numbered, Virginia Loyalists would
have been able to hold their State firm in her National allegiance.
Since the war Texas has traveled the highway to wealth and power,
founded on the ownership of her public lands, of which the National
Government could have deprived her with as little difficulty as was
found in dividing Virginia. Florida has likewise enjoyed general
prosperity, and secured rapid development from the resources of land
which the National Government had generously given her before
the war and of which she was not deprived for her acts of rebellion.
True-hearted Americans rejoice in the prosperity of these States
which adorn the southern border of the Republic; but they cannot
help seeing, and seeing with regret, how differently the ancient
Commonwealth of Virginia has fared at the hands of the National
Government.