The loss of Vicksburg was significant, but victory in the western theatre was hardly anything approaching a done deal in the minds of the Northern public in July of 1863. As far as Federal occupation of parts of the North Carolina coast goes, they were pretty much confined and little more than a nuisance to Governor Zebulon Vance. The all important port of Wilmington and the network of forts guarding the mouth of the Cape Fear River were firmly in the hands of the Confederates.
By mid 18163, the AOP was largely in disarray, with the exception of the less than complete Federal victory at Sharpsburg, that army had suffered one major defeat after another. “General Hookerestimated in 1863 that 85,000 officers and men had deserted from the Army of the Potomac” this would have been approximately the entire number of men Lee had under his command at that time. A Gettysburg defeat, so close to major northeastern cities would have been a political disaster for Lincoln’s government. The draft riots in New York City and elsewhere in the North would have seemed like a Sunday outing at Sunny Brook farm compared to what would have happened had the Federal Army lost yet another battle at Gettysburg. To say that the CSA would have had hope after a Gettysburg victory would be an understatement.
“If war must come I preferred to be with my own people. If we had to shed blood, I preferred to shed Northern rather than Southern blood. If we had to slay, I had rather slay strangers than my own kindred and neighbors; and that it was better, whether right or wrong, that communities and States should go together and face the horrors of war in a body—sharing a common fate, rather than endure the unspeakable calamities internecine strife… The arguments having ceased and the sword drawn, all classes in the South united as by magic, as only a common danger could unite them.”
Zebulon B. Vance
My original post to Tim, who started this thread, was in response to his comment that "
up until Gettysburg, the Union was pretty much losing the war." I countered with a list of the Union victories in the west to show that the Union wasn't necessarily losing the war prior to Gettysburg; despite some big loses in the East, it had big wins in the West. Yes, it's true that Americans, both North and South, tended to look harder at the Eastern Theater for their gauge for victory, but its also true that the Confederacy had to deal with many political, manpower, and resource problems caused by the Union victories in the West.
AFTER Gettysburg, and when Grant went east, the Union finally was able to push Lee back from his Potomac/Rapidan line all the way to his Petersburg/Richmond defenses, then bottled him up while the other Union Armies continued to take territory and destroy resources elsewhere. [It was because things went so well for the Union in the West that Sherman was able to take a western army through Georgia and the Carolinas, leaving another western army to destroy Hood.]
If the North had lost at Gettysburg....Hmmmm, it depends on the type of defeat. If Meade had held his army together but abandoned the field, I don't think Lee would have been able to last very long in Pennsylvania anyway before his lack of supplies (ammo, etc) would have caused him to withdraw back into Virginia. Yes, it would have been a political nightmare, but one that might have been survivable. We'll never know...
Regarding the 85,000 northern deserters, wasn't that during the winter of 1863, after the Fredericksburg debacle and Burnside's poor logistics which added to the AOP's misery? After Hooker took control and refurbished the logistical arrangements, I think many deserters returned to their commands on offer of amnesty. Would you call the AOP that marched north to Gettysburg in disarray? The AOP still outmanned the AoNV about 94,000 to 72,000, and were well equipped and...finally...were led rather well.
My thoughts overall on this thread topic: I
don't think that the Confederate loss at Gettysburg was a huge defeat for the South--it was survivable. It was a very important win, however, for the North. After Gettysburg, the Confederacy fought on, fought well, and had high hopes. It was the result of everything that happened to the South, and didn't happen to the North, from 1861 up through the end of 1864 that led to Lincoln's reelection and the failure of the Confederacy to gain the only victory that was possible in this war, a political victory based on a negotiated peace.