Lincoln Why was Lincoln able to win re-election despite fears that he would be defeated

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It is hard for modern Americans to believe that Abraham Lincoln, one of history's most beloved Presidents, was nearly defeated in his reelection attempt in 1864. Yet by that summer, Lincoln himself feared he would lose. How could this happen? First, the country had not elected an incumbent President for a second term since Andrew Jackson in 1832 — nine Presidents in a row had served just one term. Also, his embrace of emancipation was still a problem for many Northern voters.
Despite Union victories at Gettysburg and Vicksburg a year earlier, the Southern armies came back fighting with a vengeance. During three months in the summer of 1864, over 65,000 Union soldiers were killed, wounded, or missing-in-action. In comparison, there had been 108,000 Union casualties in the first three years. General Ulysses S. Grant was being called The Butcher. At one time during the summer, Confederate soldiers under Jubal Early came within five miles of the White House
Lincoln had much to contend with. He had staunch opponents in the Congress. Underground Confederate activities brought rebellion to parts of Maryland. Lincoln's suspension of the writ of habeas corpus was ruled unconstitutional by Supreme Court Chief Justice Roger B. Taney — an order Lincoln refused to obey. But worst of all, the war was not going well.
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Former General George B. McClellan and his running mate, George Pendleton (who later began the U.S. Civil Service) were strongly favored to win the election of 1864.
Meanwhile the Democratic Party split, with major opposition from Peace Democrats, who wanted a negotiated peace at any cost. They chose as their nominee George B. McClellan, Lincoln's former commander of the Army of the Potomac. Even Lincoln expected that McClellan would win.
The South was well aware of Union discontent. Many felt that if the Southern armies could hold out until the election, negotiations for Northern recognition of Confederate independence might begin.
Everything changed on September 6, 1864, when General Sherman seized Atlanta. The war effort had turned decidedly in the North's favor and even McClellan now sought military victory.
Two months later, Lincoln won the popular vote that eluded him in his first election. He won the electoral college by 212 to 21 and the Republicans had won three-fourths of Congress. A second term and the power to conclude the war were now in his hands.
 
I've often wondered how we know that Lincoln was in danger of not being re-elected prior to Atlanta and the Union victories in the Shenandoah. There were no polls in those days. Was this just the hope of the newspapers who supported the Democratic party, or was there more to it ?

In David Herbert Donald's biography, Lincoln, the political pulse of the electorate at the time is well described. I apologize I am unable to give you quotes, but I can recommend the book. There are probably other books that explore the topic.
 
I've often wondered how we know that Lincoln was in danger of not being re-elected prior to Atlanta and the Union victories in the Shenandoah. There were no polls in those days. Was this just the hope of the newspapers who supported the Democratic party, or was there more to it ?

You might call it "reports on the ground". Republican and Democratic campaigners were barnstorming across the country in 1864. How many people attended the Republican rallies vis-a-vis the Democratic ones? In the big cities (which were mostly Democratic, then as now) precinct captains of the political machines would canvas for votes; how well were they doing? Political campaigning was already very sophisticated; compared to modern times, the only thing they were lacking was technology. Indeed, in terms of what politicos call "the ground game", they were probably more sophisticated than us.
 
It should be pointed out that, without the Union victories at Atlanta and in the Shenandoah, Lincoln almost certainly would have lost the election. He won New York, the biggest electoral prize, by the absolute skin of his teeth. Pennsylvania and Connecticut were also extremely close; Oregon, Indiana and Illinois were within striking distance for the Democrats. If just those six states switched columns, the electoral vote goes from 212-21 in favor of Lincoln to 115-118 in favor McClellan. And if Sherman failed to take Atlanta and Sheridan failed to defeat Early in the Shenandoah, we can assume that the war-weariness and discouragement throughout the North would only have worsened through the summer and early fall of 1864.
 
It should be pointed out that, without the Union victories at Atlanta and in the Shenandoah, Lincoln almost certainly would have lost the election. He won New York, the biggest electoral prize, by the absolute skin of his teeth. Pennsylvania and Connecticut were also extremely close; Oregon, Indiana and Illinois were within striking distance for the Democrats. If just those six states switched columns, the electoral vote goes from 212-21 in favor of Lincoln to 115-118 in favor McClellan. And if Sherman failed to take Atlanta and Sheridan failed to defeat Early in the Shenandoah, we can assume that the war-weariness and discouragement throughout the North would only have worsened through the summer and early fall of 1864.
I wholeheartedly agree!
 
I've often wondered how we know that Lincoln was in danger of not being re-elected prior to Atlanta and the Union victories in the Shenandoah. There were no polls in those days. Was this just the hope of the newspapers who supported the Democratic party, or was there more to it ?


You are correct: no tracking polls, no Nate Silver, just the opinions of a lot of folks, including many at that time, and now a slew of historians. Though oft repeated, there is no real data based way to tell. While the Electoral vote was a landslide, the popular vote was 55-45, which still is not very close. Perhaps those military campaigns had the ability to sway enough votes, which would be about 200,000 or so from Lincoln to McClellan. McClellan was not particularly popular in the Western Theater Armies, and the Peace Platform the Democrats adopted was decidedly unpopular. Those things make me skeptical, but one thing is for certain, the Union victories could not have hurt Lincoln a bit, and they could not have helped McClellan. Perhaps it's real, perhaps it's just drama, but it is a good story.
 
He won by a slim margin, and it's my understanding that he put enormous pressure on field commanders to furlough their troops to go home and vote. You couldn't vote from camp, and some commanders resisted the pressure. Others, fortunately for Lincoln, were glad to oblige.

In the end, several states did allow their soldiers to vote "absentee." Congress had passed a law legalizing it. It was left up to the states whether or not to participate. Those that were firmly in one political camp or the other usually didn't go to the extra expense. Only in those states where the soldiers' votes might have swayed the election was it done.
http://www.civilwarhome.com/vote.htm
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/cwh/summary/v050/50.3white.html
As I understand it, the soldier votes in all states were strongly pro-Lincoln.

jno
 
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In the end, several states did allow their soldiers to vote "absentee." Congress had passed a law legalizing it. It was left up to the states whether or not to participate. Those that were firmly in one political camp or the other usually didn't go to the extra expense. Only in those states where the soldiers' votes might have swayed the election was it done.
http://www.civilwarhome.com/vote.htm
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/cwh/summary/v050/50.3white.html
As I understand it, the soldier votes in all states were strongly pro-Lincoln.

jno
Thanks for the clarification. :smile coffee:
 
It should be pointed out that, without the Union victories at Atlanta and in the Shenandoah, Lincoln almost certainly would have lost the election. He won New York, the biggest electoral prize, by the absolute skin of his teeth. Pennsylvania and Connecticut were also extremely close; Oregon, Indiana and Illinois were within striking distance for the Democrats. If just those six states switched columns, the electoral vote goes from 212-21 in favor of Lincoln to 115-118 in favor McClellan. And if Sherman failed to take Atlanta and Sheridan failed to defeat Early in the Shenandoah, we can assume that the war-weariness and discouragement throughout the North would only have worsened through the summer and early fall of 1864.
And Lincoln most likely would have lived on. Who knows what would happened with a presidency under McClellan? Amazing to try and think about a US with an ageing Lincoln isn't it.
 
The proposed defeat of Lincoln is a modern backstop for historians to keep people's interest in the Civil War after Gettysburg and Vicksburg. By 1863 the Confederacy was still fighting, but fighting futilely. They had lost much of their new country. Parts of which they would never regain.
Some challenge during a war is normal for many. The vote only mandated what was thought at the time. A tough war but a necessary war. By the time of the election, the Confederacy was down to defending a few of its states, and as Sherman proved, it was hardly defending those.
 
Indiana would have been a big win for Lincoln if the Democrat controlled legislature hadn't done everything possible to prevent the soldiers from voting. Lincoln still carried the state by 7%. But several Indiana regiments held their own unofficial votes in their camps just to see. The vote was around 80% Lincoln. So the Democrats preventing them from officially casting absentee ballots helped their side substantially.

Just looking at a map I don't see how people in the North doubted the outcome by the summer of '64. Sherman was at gates of Atlanta and Grant had Lee pinned down in Petersburg. New Orleans and large parts of the Confederacy were under Union control. But looking over the 1864 election results I figure if there had been a 5% shift towards McClellan he would have won the Electoral Vote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1864
 
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Everything changed on September 6, 1864, when General Sherman seized Atlanta. The war effort had turned decidedly in the North's favor and even McClellan now sought military victory.

here is what happened to change the situation:

  • Farragut's victory at Mobile Bay, August 5
  • Fort Gaines at the entrance to Mobile Bay surrenders, August 8th
  • Fort Morgan at the entrance to Mobile Bay surrenders, August 23rd
  • Sherman takes Atlanta, September 2
  • Sheridan's victory at Third Winchester, September 19
  • Sheridan's victory at Fishers Hill, September 21-22
  • Sheridan's victory at Tom's Brook, October 9
  • Sheridan's victory at Cedar Creek, October 19
After that string of successes, the gloom was lifted and suddenly everyone could see that the Union was winning the war.

Tim
 
I've often wondered how we know that Lincoln was in danger of not being re-elected prior to Atlanta and the Union victories in the Shenandoah. There were no polls in those days. Was this just the hope of the newspapers who supported the Democratic party, or was there more to it ?

I'm surprised no one mentioned it yet, but Lincoln himself expressed doubts about his prospects in summer 1864, prior to the military successes noted:

"This morning, as for some days past, it seems exceedingly probable that this Administration will not be re-elected. Then it will be my duty to so co-operate with the President elect, as to save the Union between the election and the inauguration; as he will have secured his election on such ground that he cannot possibly save it afterward."
 
Lincoln's reelection was a major accomplishment that is often overlooked due to the ACW. I recall reading a few years ago, and I cannot remember the title of the book, that due to the war Lincoln never left D.C. to actively campaign. He had no stump speeches etc. He relied on surrogate campaigners and the telegram to get his message out. BTW, by "due to the war", I do not mean fearing for his own safety, I mean he thought he needed to be in the best location to get the information and make decisions as fast as humanly possible in those days.
 
McClellan was an attractive candidate for the Democrats to a large part because of his popularity with the soldiers. Federal officials and Lincoln supporters, though worked hard to get the mechanisms for the soldier vote operating.

"Federal officials like Assistant Secretary of War Charles Dana and state officials like New York Secretary of State Chauncey M. Depew worked hard to maximize the number of soldier votes. Although Democratic strategy depended on McClellan attracting a large proportion of the votes of his former troops, the Democrat peace platform undermined that effort. Although Secretary of War Stanton was unenthusiastic about the politicization of the war effort, he acquiesced. Historian David E. Long wrote: "The general feeling in the army was that his dismissal had been wrong and politically motivated, and that McClellan had good reason to be upset. However, his consorting with prominent Copperheads disappointed the troops he had nurtured and trained so devotedly. If he had any promise as a national political candidate, he had to retain the support of his army. The Army of the Potomac represented not merely the votes of 100,000 men, but also the votes of relatives and friends who relied on these men for news from the front. The soldiers were heroes to those they left behind and any action that hindered their effort was looked upon as disloyalty. Had McClellan been as astute a politician as he was a military organizer and theorist, he would have realized that the military vote represented his best chances of being elected and could have been more circumspect in his associations."58 Ultimately, although the soldier vote was not decisive, it boosted President Lincoln's margin substantially and may have boosted the National Union ticket to victory in Connecticut and New York. By better than 3-1, soldiers preferred the commander-in-chief to their former commander."

http://www.abrahamlincolnsclassroom.org/Library/newsletter.asp?ID=112&CRLI=160
 
He won by a slim margin, and it's my understanding that he put enormous pressure on field commanders to furlough their troops to go home and vote. You couldn't vote from camp, and some commanders resisted the pressure. Others, fortunately for Lincoln, were glad to oblige.


Typical Lincoln. Never let tradition, the truth or the law stand in the way of your political agenda.
 
Lincoln set the ground pretty well. As was mentioned before, he arranged for absentee votes by soldiers and fuloughs for those from states that didn't allow absentee voting. On top of that, he used his "10% plan" to allow occupied states back into the union if 10% of it's voters signed the loyalty pledge. Those voters who signed the pledge, of course, were eligible to votes, others were not - thereby giving Lincoln a shortcut to the electoral votes of Arkansas, Lousiana, and Florida, for example.
 
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