Hi wausaubob
So apart from the war which wasn't necessary this is what actually happened. Commissioner released (NOT diplomats if they were diplomats this would have been de facto recognition of the Confederacy by Britain and France, Britain was very careful to treat them as private gentlemen).
In late 1861 DuPont brought almost all the saltpetre available for sale in London and a significant amount of what was available in India. As the monsoon is approximately June to Sept it is reasonable to assume that the 1861 'crop' was available for purchase in India. So at the time the Trent Affair was resolved there is almost nothing to sell him the merchants can sell him there is no more. By the time the 1862 'crop' becomes available European nations may also be buying by 1863 they definitely will.
When you say the US do you mean the Union Government, military, business or ordinary people? The Union government will not be angry or stupid enough to store saltpetre and plan a new war against Britain even if it has had to let the Confederacy go as a result of a Trent war. Especially as key officers of the Union Navy made very clear during the historical Trent Affair they had no chance whatsoever against the Royal Navy. I suggest to you that even in this case they cannot collect enough powder to fight the British in less than three years (even assuming as I have they are not fighting the Confederacy).
On the matter of the Trent Affair the Russians were on side with the British and French against the Union as Union actions threatened Russian interests. Later 1863 I think, when there was a concern that Britain might go to war with Russia over Poland they sent nearly all of thier serviceable small ships nothing bigger than a screw steam frigate to winter in neutral ports where they would not be icebound and could sally forth to attack British commerce in the event of a war over Poland. The ports the Russians chose were San Francisco and New York City. I think I am right in saying that from the Trent Affair onwards there was no time when the Royal Navy on the Pacific did not completely over match the combined Russian Pacific squadron and the Union Pacific squadron combined and the NAWIS station overmatched the Russian squadron at New York and both Union Atlantic Blocading squadrons combined. Of course the Russian had no intention to offer a fleet action.
The Irish made up 25% of the British army, volunteer to a man. Wolfetone and Emmet were executed, Michael Dwyer was transported. Then there was An Gorta Mor and mass migration to England, the Americas, the Autralian Colonies and the Argentine anything to escape the hunger. The Young Ireland rebellion was a joke. It was not until after Parnell, the Land leagues, the formation of the IRB, the Fenian raids, Gaelic athletics, the cultural revival and finally the coming together of the Socialists, nationalists and the woman's movement that Ireland was ready to rise again. Anything else such as another rising furing a Trent War is 'Fenian Fantasy'.
As you did with the Union you are now doing with the British you are assuming it is some sort of monolithic organisation. There were disagreements over slavery everywhere even at the highest levels of Government. The Europeans as a group Britain, France, Russia and Prussia could have imposed a peace simply by recognising the Confederacy but there would have been no point if the Confederacy did not demonstrate its independence and its ability to govern and defend itself. It never did win enough military victories to demonstrate that. British backers of blockade runners and producers of materiel and weapons made money. Textile manufacturing concerns struggled and some textile workers, many became destitute in Manchester and the mill towns during the cotton famine. I am not aware of anyone wanting to break the connevtion between cotton and slavery. Who did you have in mind? Don't forget that both Union and Confederacy were slave holding countries during the ACW. Why would the post bellum USA import sugar from the West Indies when they can import it from an independent Confederacy?
OK, the British embargoed saltpeter. If that goes on for very long, the war ends, for awhile. The US releases the diplomats. The embargo probably ends,
So apart from the war which wasn't necessary this is what actually happened. Commissioner released (NOT diplomats if they were diplomats this would have been de facto recognition of the Confederacy by Britain and France, Britain was very careful to treat them as private gentlemen).
because the merchants want to sell the powder.
In late 1861 DuPont brought almost all the saltpetre available for sale in London and a significant amount of what was available in India. As the monsoon is approximately June to Sept it is reasonable to assume that the 1861 'crop' was available for purchase in India. So at the time the Trent Affair was resolved there is almost nothing to sell him the merchants can sell him there is no more. By the time the 1862 'crop' becomes available European nations may also be buying by 1863 they definitely will.
The US ships as much powder as it can while the armistice lasts, and then the war resumes, and the US is very angry with the British.
When you say the US do you mean the Union Government, military, business or ordinary people? The Union government will not be angry or stupid enough to store saltpetre and plan a new war against Britain even if it has had to let the Confederacy go as a result of a Trent war. Especially as key officers of the Union Navy made very clear during the historical Trent Affair they had no chance whatsoever against the Royal Navy. I suggest to you that even in this case they cannot collect enough powder to fight the British in less than three years (even assuming as I have they are not fighting the Confederacy).
So very close to the actual events, except the US is driven closer to Russia, and the Irish/Americans are pressing harder for anti-British intervention.
On the matter of the Trent Affair the Russians were on side with the British and French against the Union as Union actions threatened Russian interests. Later 1863 I think, when there was a concern that Britain might go to war with Russia over Poland they sent nearly all of thier serviceable small ships nothing bigger than a screw steam frigate to winter in neutral ports where they would not be icebound and could sally forth to attack British commerce in the event of a war over Poland. The ports the Russians chose were San Francisco and New York City. I think I am right in saying that from the Trent Affair onwards there was no time when the Royal Navy on the Pacific did not completely over match the combined Russian Pacific squadron and the Union Pacific squadron combined and the NAWIS station overmatched the Russian squadron at New York and both Union Atlantic Blocading squadrons combined. Of course the Russian had no intention to offer a fleet action.
The Irish made up 25% of the British army, volunteer to a man. Wolfetone and Emmet were executed, Michael Dwyer was transported. Then there was An Gorta Mor and mass migration to England, the Americas, the Autralian Colonies and the Argentine anything to escape the hunger. The Young Ireland rebellion was a joke. It was not until after Parnell, the Land leagues, the formation of the IRB, the Fenian raids, Gaelic athletics, the cultural revival and finally the coming together of the Socialists, nationalists and the woman's movement that Ireland was ready to rise again. Anything else such as another rising furing a Trent War is 'Fenian Fantasy'.
Pretty clear that the British could have frozen the war by embargoing both sides. They didn't. They made money on the war and they wanted the connection between slavery and cotton permanently broken. And if the US started importing sugar from the Caribbean that would have been another plus.
As you did with the Union you are now doing with the British you are assuming it is some sort of monolithic organisation. There were disagreements over slavery everywhere even at the highest levels of Government. The Europeans as a group Britain, France, Russia and Prussia could have imposed a peace simply by recognising the Confederacy but there would have been no point if the Confederacy did not demonstrate its independence and its ability to govern and defend itself. It never did win enough military victories to demonstrate that. British backers of blockade runners and producers of materiel and weapons made money. Textile manufacturing concerns struggled and some textile workers, many became destitute in Manchester and the mill towns during the cotton famine. I am not aware of anyone wanting to break the connevtion between cotton and slavery. Who did you have in mind? Don't forget that both Union and Confederacy were slave holding countries during the ACW. Why would the post bellum USA import sugar from the West Indies when they can import it from an independent Confederacy?