I think this is a bit too far.
The reason Lee did not have "
a single inkling of the move" was that Grant and Meade had a skillfully developed plan. That plan included:
- The threat of David Hunter coming through the Shenandoah Valley to Lynchburg (wrecking the RR connection there, stripping the Valley of supplies, etc.)
- Sending Sheridan and his cavalry on a raid to destroy the Virginia Central RR near Charlottesville, with the option of continuing to join Hunter and threaten Richmond from the West. (This leads to Trevillian Station on the 11th-12th)
- Building a new line of entrenchments in his rear from Elder Swamp north to Allen's Mill Pond. This was to cover the AoP's rear when the move to cross the James began. Meade had it built June 9-11. The AoP began moving towards the James during the night of the 12th, with the corps of Hancock and Wright occupying the line while Warren led the way South. Burnside and Smith then pulled out of the front line, with Burnside marching South and Smith marching to White House, where he boarded steamers and moved to Bermuda Hundred. Wilson's cavalry covered the movement.
- Adding Ben Butler's Army of the James at Bermuda Hundred to the AoP field command, using that position as a shield to move his main force to the south side of the James.
Meanwhile, what was Lee doing?
- He had sent Breckinridge's division to Lynchburg to face Hunter.
- He sent Hampton with two cavalry divisions to counter Sheridan, leading to Trevillian Station on the 11th-12th.
- On June 11 (before Grant/Meade moved), Lee ordered Early to move on the 12th to Lynchburg.
On the 12th, Lee has already sent Breckinridge's Division, Hampton's cavalry, and Early's Corps away. This is done as a result of other movements by Grant. This is an extremely coordinated and well-executed effort by the Union side, which is
why Lee doesn't have "
a single inkling of the move". If Lee did have an inkling of the move, he might have kept Early plus part or all of Hampton with him -- which would mean that Hunter takes Lynchburg, Sheridan runs wild in central Virginia, and quite possibly Hunter and Sheridan join forces to the West of Richmond.
If Lee does attack on the 13th as the Yankees are starting to move South, he will be attacking entrenched troops head on. In 1864, that was a bad scenario for the attacker. I don't see how we can postulate that Lee would have "
easily have come close to destroying the AoP."
BTW, one main reason that Lee has difficulty finding out where Grant is going is that Beauregard doesn't tell him. Lee gets requests for troops from Beauregard, but no intel that tells him it is the Yankees main effort coming across the James. Reading the messages in the OR leads to an impression that Beauregard wants
Lee's troops to come down below the James and be under Beauregard's command -- but he does not want
General Lee himself to come down below the James and assume command.