Washington

MikeyB

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Sep 13, 2018
Admittedly, the Confederacy never had a good shot of capturing the capital. But what moment was their best opportunity? Post First Manassas? Monocacy? Gettysburg campaign with troops from other fronts?

Was there ever a moment where if all the stars aligned, they might have been able to do it?
 
I think the only real chance the Rebs might have had of taking Washington D. C. was before McClellan ringed it with forts. Even then, for all the reasons Hussar Yeomanry gives on the thread he posted, it seems highly unlikely.
 
I think the only real chance the Rebs might have had of taking Washington D. C. was before McClellan ringed it with forts. Even then, for all the reasons Hussar Yeomanry gives on the thread he posted, it seems highly unlikely.

But what about after Grant pulled those troops and heavies and added it to the AoTP. Were those forts still formidable? If Lew Wallace had been quickly routed, did Early have a shot of cracking it open before Grant rushed the VI corps back?
mike
 
Re. the first possibility, I would say that by the time Grant was placed in overall command, the Confederates were in no condition to try to capture the Union capital. They were desperately trying to save their own. Re. the second scenario, it's a "what if " question for which there can be no real answer, just speculation. It will be interesting to hear other responses to your question!
 
Re. the first possibility, I would say that by the time Grant was placed in overall command, the Confederates were in no condition to try to capture the Union capital. They were desperately trying to save their own. Re. the second scenario, it's a "what if " question for which there can be no real answer, just speculation. It will be interesting to hear other responses to your question!

Yup, fair enough. Let me rephrase - how defensible were DC forts when operating on skeleton crews? Seems like it may be a very brittle shell.
 
Admittedly, the Confederacy never had a good shot of capturing the capital. But what moment was their best opportunity? Post First Manassas? Monocacy? Gettysburg campaign with troops from other fronts?

Was there ever a moment where if all the stars aligned, they might have been able to do it?

Times when the Confederates might have tried to take Washington:
  1. April 1861 (immediately after after their victory at Ft. Sumter)
    1. Rebels actually tried this, or at least wanted to try it. Practical reality (raw troops, unformed army, chaos of mobilization, etc.) made it a flop.
    2. Given the complete lack of preparation and organization in the Confederacy, this was essentially doomed before it started. You can find some references to the attempt in the OR, but the arrival of the first regiment from the North in Washington put an end to it.
  2. July 1861 (immediately after after their victory at 1st Manassas)
    1. Davis, Johnston and Beauregard discussed this the night after the battle. Davis argued for a hot pursuit; Johnston and Beauregard were reluctant. Davis was about to sign the pursuit order when news arrived of a repulse of the Confederate cavalry (apparently this is Sherman's rear guard forming square and shooting up an attempted charge). Davis paused and never did sign the order.
    2. Realistically, the army was too raw and battered by victory to pursue. Highly unlikely that the Confederates could have pulled a pursuit off. Literally, the only possible reason it would have worked is the raw nature of the Union army and that seems unlikely to be enough.
  3. September 1862 (immediately after their victory at 2nd Manassas)
    1. Lee wasn't strong enough and McClellan had more than enough troops to hold the Washington defenses. The Confederates did not have enough troops and material (siege train, etc.) to besiege the city. They didn't have the force needed to assault the city.
    2. Lee might have, with luck, cut off Pope as he retreated (McClellan made no extraordinary exertions to reach Pope and appeared ready to stay in the fortifications and see if Pope could make it back). This possibility vanished with the Battle of Chantilly on September 1. Lee then crossed the Potomac on the 3rd and headed towards Pennsylvania.
  4. September 1862 (immediately after a Confederate victory at Sharpsburg or nearby)
    1. Lee still would not be strong enough to realistically attack Washington (not enough men, no heavy artillery, not enough supplies, transport or reinforcements available, etc.) as long as any strong Federal force is available at Washington. The same applies to Baltimore.
    2. Lee can, after a decisive victory that renders the AoP weak and ineffective, run rampant in central MD and PA for a few weeks.
  5. July 1863 (immediately after a Confederate victory at Gettysburg)
    1. Same as #4 above. Lee can run wild in central MD and PA, maybe for a month or more. Union reinforcements will inevitably converge on him, the AoP will reorganize and advance again, Lee will eventually end up South of the Potomac.
  6. July 1864 (immediately after their victory at Monocacy)
    1. Early might have attacked more vigorously and penetrated the lines of Washington, maybe a day earlier, maybe made it to the White House. As soon as VI corps gets off the boats and deploys, Early has to retreat. At best, this is a raid with high propaganda value.
    2. Early is too weak and too unsupported to have done more.
Beyond that, the real issue is that Lee needs to inflict a truly massive defeat on the AoP in order to make a strategic change in the war. By this I mean something much better than Chancellorsville: a battle that not only drives the Union back but shatters them as a fighting force, then follows it up with a strong and aggressive pursuit that brings them to heel and savages the routed remnants. Such victories are rare and legendary. Napoleon's Italian Campaigns of 1796-97, his 1805 Ulm-Austerlitz Campaign, his 1806 Jena-Auerstadt Campaign (including the pursuit to Berlin) and his 1809 Campaign in Austria would have sprung to Lee's and Jackson's minds as examples of what they wanted to do; they never were able to come close to matching any of them.
 
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