Was Slavery Dying Out copied from H.K. Edgerton Video challenge thread

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#1
All the evidence is that the Slave South wanted to expand slavery not end it.
I've heard and read in more than one place that Slavery was winding down and on the way out. If that can be dis-proved, then please provide some good links on it.

But that's not really my question. My question is, if not for the Civil War and the South supposedly keeping on going with it, do you or any other of the anti-South posters here believe that it would actually still be going on today?

And if not, what would be your best determination on an approximate date?

(Looking for your best un-biased answers here).
 

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dlofting

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#2
I've heard and read in more than one place that Slavery was winding down and on the way out. If that can be dis-proved, then please provide some good links on it.

But that's not really my question. My question is, if not for the Civil War and the South supposedly keeping on going with it, do you or any other of the anti-South posters here believe that it would actually still be going on today?

And if not, what would be your best determination on an approximate date?

(Looking for your best un-biased answers here).
I recall that Eric Foner, in his series of lectures on the Civil War and Reconstruction, opined that slavery would have continued into the 1930's if it was left alone. I can't remember his reasoning, maybe someone else can.
 

jgoodguy

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#3
I've heard and read in more than one place that Slavery was winding down and on the way out. If that can be dis-proved, then please provide some good links on it.

But that's not really my question. My question is, if not for the Civil War and the South supposedly keeping on going with it, do you or any other of the anti-South posters here believe that it would actually still be going on today?

And if not, what would be your best determination on an approximate date?

(Looking for your best un-biased answers here).
Three fer the price of one response.

I am pro South, but anti Confederate. I would have been one of those North Alabama Union patriots faithful to his Country in the Civil War. Don't fall into the trap of thinking the Confederacy defined the entire South at any time. The Confederacy is a like a pimple on the face of Southern Heritage, a small blemish on a wonderful land.

Slavery was sorta dying out and sorta not.

Worldwide it was, but a Southern Victory in the Civil War would have chanced the dynamic and emboldened foreign slave holders.

The way slavery died out in the US in the antebellum period is that slave owners lost wealth from slaves and lost political influence. Slavery required a lot of State infrastructure from slave catchers, to law enforcement, to courts, to oppression of whites as well as free blacks suppressing free speech and the right of association. This cost is borne by the State as a whole so the slave owners needed a lot of political influence. Money bought that influence and as the number of slaves declined in a State, the profits declined and the slave holders were unable to successfully oppose their opposition which consisted of abolitionists, religious groups, those who feared competition from slavery and Free Labor ideologues.

This was not happening in any of the original seceded State. There is a ratio to slave owners to the general population and also a ratio of free to slave, a bright and shiny breaking point where ratios higher seceded and below did not. It is an absolute line where all above seceded and none below did. Where the power of the slave owner was sufficient, slavery survived.

The second batch is different, the power of the slave owners was not sufficient to make it the first wave, but was sufficient when the choice was the Union where Free States would hold political power in war time likely to abolish slavery and the Confederacy where slavery was considered a social good and protected.

In the Deep South, the 7 original Cotton Seceding States there is no diminishment of slavery, only increases in the price and numbers. Slave grown cotton is white gold, immense wealth for the white hand of the slave owner to reach out and grab. Immense wealth buys immense political, social and religious support. Slavery is going to stay in those States for decades maybe centuries. My bet is early 1900s at best. Based on the Jim Crow era and Civil Rights era, maybe to the 1950s. Others are more pessimistic.

In that second batch of seceded States and other border states, slavery was diminishing at some point the political influence the slave owners fall below viability and lose. Excluding VA, maybe within a generation.

Virginia is odd, it gets great wealth from breeding slaves to sell to the Deep South and increasing non plantation agriculture such as wheat and increasing industrialization. Some theories hold that this would cause slavery to die off, but VA was adjusting slavery to accommodate that. Yet that ratio mention above was decreasing indicating that slavery was in some danger in VA. I'll hazard a guess of 50 years

Been discussed a lot here. If you still want links, l'll look for them after breakfast.
 

jgoodguy

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#4
I've heard and read in more than one place that Slavery was winding down and on the way out. If that can be dis-proved, then please provide some good links on it.

But that's not really my question. My question is, if not for the Civil War and the South supposedly keeping on going with it, do you or any other of the anti-South posters here believe that it would actually still be going on today?

And if not, what would be your best determination on an approximate date?

(Looking for your best un-biased answers here).
Your turn to provide sources for your assertion "read in more than one place that Slavery was winding down and on the way out."

Evidence from the time of slavery seems to be lacking.
Ive never run across any accounts of people who thought that slavery was dying...
I agree with all your points and I have not seen any evidence of anyone who thought slavery was dying in 1861. Why would you think that knowing the price of slaves was at an all-time high in 1860.

And even using hindsight, no one has ever convinced me that slavery was actually dying in 1861 or was even likely to die on its own by 1900. I don't know where they get such ideas.
I've not read of anybody who thought it was dying either. However, I do think many felt that there needed to be expansion or it might be threatened in the not-so-distant future and I think that's the message the secession hotheads pounded home; they're going to try to shut us down and won't let us expand to the west so we need to just pack up and start our own slave republic and maybe find some new territory, crops, or industries suited to slave labor.

I also think that slavery likely would have died by 1900 for a number of reasons but they didn't know about that 'cause it hadn't happened yet (e.g. the death of King Cotton, the invention of mechanized equipment). So when people say it would have died out they do so because they have the advantage of knowing what happened. Those living in 186o didn't. That's also why people say things like Gettysburg was the turning point. Nobody at the time thought so.
."


The Slaveholders were busy hatching schemes to seize Cuba, Mexico, and parts of South America in order to expand slavery.



To even speak out against slavery branded you an enemy of the South.
 

jgoodguy

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#7
Thanks for reminding me of this rabbit hole below where when the ratio of slave to free exceeds .24 and the percentage of slave holding families exceeded 23% the power of slave holders was sufficient to secede.

In short the political power of slave owners determined secession or not. Note the clean break. Not only did no free State join the CSA, but also Slave States where the political of the slave owner was insufficient to secede. It is a clean break with no stragglers. All the call did was to remind slave owner where their best interest lay.
slave-ratio-png.132934.png
 
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#8
Your turn to provide sources for your assertion "read in more than one place that Slavery was winding down and on the way out."
What I heard was in conversation. What I read was on other forums and not official. I have no links at this time. But I appreciate all the charts and info and will be studying them as time allows.
 

atlantis

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#9
By 1861 my county had switched from tobacco to wheat/corn as the main export, yet the county still voted for secession even though the slave population had decreased as a percentage of the pop. The large plantations had long since been broken during previous economic downturns in my county by 1861. Based on this I think it is anyone's guess as to when slavery would have died, there are just too many unknowns that could end or prolonged slavery. One thing that did end slavery early was secession.
 

Potomac Pride

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#10
I've heard and read in more than one place that Slavery was winding down and on the way out. If that can be dis-proved, then please provide some good links on it.

But that's not really my question. My question is, if not for the Civil War and the South supposedly keeping on going with it, do you or any other of the anti-South posters here believe that it would actually still be going on today?

And if not, what would be your best determination on an approximate date?

(Looking for your best un-biased answers here).
With the industrial revolution in the USA and the increased mechanization of farming, slavery would have eventually become uneconomical and ceased to exist. The last country in the western hemisphere to have slavery was Brazil which ended the practice in 1888. If the Civil War had not taken place, slavery would still have ended in the USA long ago probably before the year 1900.
 

atlantis

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#11
The slave population had increased from 600,000 to 4million at what point is there a critical mass for a large slave revolt. Nat Turners revolt was confined to one county.
 

unionblue

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#13
With the industrial revolution in the USA and the increased mechanization of farming, slavery would have eventually become uneconomical and ceased to exist. The last country in the western hemisphere to have slavery was Brazil which ended the practice in 1888. If the Civil War had not taken place, slavery would still have ended in the USA long ago probably before the year 1900.
Opinion, nothing more.
 

unionblue

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#14
By 1861 my county had switched from tobacco to wheat/corn as the main export, yet the county still voted for secession even though the slave population had decreased as a percentage of the pop. The large plantations had long since been broken during previous economic downturns in my county by 1861. Based on this I think it is anyone's guess as to when slavery would have died, there are just too many unknowns that could end or prolonged slavery. One thing that did end slavery early was secession.
Do you have any documentation sources for your above claim or is this a perception by you made-up from others?
 

jgoodguy

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#17
With the industrial revolution in the USA and the increased mechanization of farming, slavery would have eventually become uneconomical and ceased to exist. The last country in the western hemisphere to have slavery was Brazil which ended the practice in 1888. If the Civil War had not taken place, slavery would still have ended in the USA long ago probably before the year 1900.
Not for sure. Virginia was doing very well combining slavery and industry. If labor is cheap enough, then mechanization does not happen.
 

jgoodguy

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#18
My chart seems to differ from your chart (in your post #7), but we can maybe discuss that at another time. For NJ anyway, as mentioned last night.

My chart is in this link:

Note "Actual End of Slavery"

http://slavenorth.com/
slavenorth.com has known problems with accuracy. Post the chart or data when you can.
 

AndyHall

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#19
Not for sure. Virginia was doing very well combining slavery and industry. If labor is cheap enough, then mechanization does not happen.
A while ago I ran some numbers on the increase in slave population by state from 1850 to 1860. Virginia's enslaved population increased only a tiny amount, much less than most other slaveholding states, that supports the claim that Virginians were sending a lot of their "natural increase" to other states where demand was stronger.
 



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