th'anchoriticsybarite
Sergeant
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2017
I know we've all been in or seen discussions of how the South could have won the war. If Lee had done this, or Bragg or any number of other possibilities. Let us just say that for instance Lee wins Gettysburg and the European powers finally intervene and force a negotiated peace. What would happen next?
It would seem to me that there are 4 possibilities
1--A Strong North and a Strong South
2--A Strong North and a Weak South
3--A Weak North and a Strong South and finally
4--A Weak North and A Weak South.
#1 would seem to be unlikely but is certainly in the realm of possibility. If the South regains control of New Orleans and thereby the Mississippi River, it might be possible to use the revenues from midwestern exports to help its shoddy finances until cotton exports can begin making up the difference. England and/or France might even considering bolstering the South to keep the North from becoming too strong.
The North on the other hand would benefit from continued immigration from Europe. They could easily expand their manufacturing base. Expanding the Erie Canal plus continued rail expansion cold help minimize the lack of free transport through New Orleans.
#2 on the other hand I believe to be the most likely scenario. If the South does not get exclusive control over the mouth of the Mississippi its finances could easily come crashing down within weeks of the guns ceasing to fire. The potential revenue from renewed cotton exports could easily be replaced as in fact in the real world it really was by not only cotton from Egypt and India but cotton that England would prefer to buy anyway because they could control it. On top of this is the simple fact that most parts of the Confederacy had little in common with other parts of the Confederacy. Texas had nothing in common with Virginia or Georgia or even Louisiana. East and West Tennessee were worlds apart
The North could still benefit for the reasons cited in #1.
#3 at first glance would seem to so unlikely, but.... It is entirely possible that had there not been the slavery element in secession the Confederacy might well have been the actual seceding states but everything west of the Alleghanies. Everyone tends to forget that the burning issue for the first half century of the US was NOT slavery but the National Bank. It was high tariffs that the North wanted to make its factories more profitable at the expense of rural farm people who wanted to buy cheap imports. So if the South wins and especially if it wins and keeps the Mississippi would it not make sense for the mid-west states to decide "me too". Having spent so much blood would they seek to salvage something by seceding themselves and making a deal with the South for access to the seas. The South would have been all too happy to see a North permanently hamstrung and never again being able to even think of forcing the reunion of the former states.
Of course this being so its easy to see how you get a Strong South.
#4 next to the second possibility this is the next most likely. The South with its finances in utter disorder barely keeps its head above water. It staggers on possibly even facing secession from itself as Texas goes its on way, maybe taking Oklahoma and maybe even Arkansas as well. In just a few decades Mr. Boll Weavil makes his appearance and accelerates the already declining fortunes of cotton with competition form Egypt and India. I can even visualize mass emancipations as slave holders can no longer afford to keep them. <edited by moderator>
The North facing a 2nd breakaway by the mid-west never completes the westward expansion. Given it separation California either creates a new state from Seattle to San Diego or is reabsorbed by Mexico. Alaska stays Russian. Who knows who winds up with Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico. Spain never loses the Phillipines.
There is one constant in all scenarios. <edited by moderator>
Let me say that I turn 70 in August. I was born in the deep south (Augusta Ga). I grew up worshipping Lee and Jackson and Stuart and hating Yankees, Grant, Lincoln and Sherman. Even today reading about the CW, I still cringe when I read about Jackson getting shot, Lee ordering Pickets Charge or Bragg/Hood doing their best to destroy the Army of Tennessee. But as a mature adult I can only thank God that he did not allow the Confederacy to succeed. The alternative is a hell no same man could contemplate with ending it all.
It would seem to me that there are 4 possibilities
1--A Strong North and a Strong South
2--A Strong North and a Weak South
3--A Weak North and a Strong South and finally
4--A Weak North and A Weak South.
#1 would seem to be unlikely but is certainly in the realm of possibility. If the South regains control of New Orleans and thereby the Mississippi River, it might be possible to use the revenues from midwestern exports to help its shoddy finances until cotton exports can begin making up the difference. England and/or France might even considering bolstering the South to keep the North from becoming too strong.
The North on the other hand would benefit from continued immigration from Europe. They could easily expand their manufacturing base. Expanding the Erie Canal plus continued rail expansion cold help minimize the lack of free transport through New Orleans.
#2 on the other hand I believe to be the most likely scenario. If the South does not get exclusive control over the mouth of the Mississippi its finances could easily come crashing down within weeks of the guns ceasing to fire. The potential revenue from renewed cotton exports could easily be replaced as in fact in the real world it really was by not only cotton from Egypt and India but cotton that England would prefer to buy anyway because they could control it. On top of this is the simple fact that most parts of the Confederacy had little in common with other parts of the Confederacy. Texas had nothing in common with Virginia or Georgia or even Louisiana. East and West Tennessee were worlds apart
The North could still benefit for the reasons cited in #1.
#3 at first glance would seem to so unlikely, but.... It is entirely possible that had there not been the slavery element in secession the Confederacy might well have been the actual seceding states but everything west of the Alleghanies. Everyone tends to forget that the burning issue for the first half century of the US was NOT slavery but the National Bank. It was high tariffs that the North wanted to make its factories more profitable at the expense of rural farm people who wanted to buy cheap imports. So if the South wins and especially if it wins and keeps the Mississippi would it not make sense for the mid-west states to decide "me too". Having spent so much blood would they seek to salvage something by seceding themselves and making a deal with the South for access to the seas. The South would have been all too happy to see a North permanently hamstrung and never again being able to even think of forcing the reunion of the former states.
Of course this being so its easy to see how you get a Strong South.
#4 next to the second possibility this is the next most likely. The South with its finances in utter disorder barely keeps its head above water. It staggers on possibly even facing secession from itself as Texas goes its on way, maybe taking Oklahoma and maybe even Arkansas as well. In just a few decades Mr. Boll Weavil makes his appearance and accelerates the already declining fortunes of cotton with competition form Egypt and India. I can even visualize mass emancipations as slave holders can no longer afford to keep them. <edited by moderator>
The North facing a 2nd breakaway by the mid-west never completes the westward expansion. Given it separation California either creates a new state from Seattle to San Diego or is reabsorbed by Mexico. Alaska stays Russian. Who knows who winds up with Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico. Spain never loses the Phillipines.
There is one constant in all scenarios. <edited by moderator>
Let me say that I turn 70 in August. I was born in the deep south (Augusta Ga). I grew up worshipping Lee and Jackson and Stuart and hating Yankees, Grant, Lincoln and Sherman. Even today reading about the CW, I still cringe when I read about Jackson getting shot, Lee ordering Pickets Charge or Bragg/Hood doing their best to destroy the Army of Tennessee. But as a mature adult I can only thank God that he did not allow the Confederacy to succeed. The alternative is a hell no same man could contemplate with ending it all.
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