I had posted the following in another thread and thought it had a place here:
If you compare the Electoral map of 1856 to 1860, it is pretty easy to see where Lincoln won. Here are the states where Lincoln got Electoral votes and Freemont did not:
Old States that switched (Buchanan in 1856, Lincoln in 1860)
- California -- 4 votes, Buchanan 48.38%, Freemont 18.78% in 1856; Lincoln 50.7% in 1860. Lincoln added 31.92%
- Illinois -- 11 votes,Buchanan 44.09%, Freemont 40.23% in 1856; Lincoln 50.7% in 1860. Lincoln added 10.47%
- Indiana -- 13 votes, Buchanan 50.41%, Freemont 40.09% in 1856; Lincoln 51.1% in 1860. Lincoln added 11.01%
- New Jersey -- 7 votes, Buchanan 7 votes, 47.23%, Freemont 28.51% in 1856, Lincoln 4 of 7 votes, 48.1% in 1860. Lincoln added 19.59%
- Pennsylvania -- 27 votes, Buchanan 50.13%, Freemont 32.01% in 1856; Lincoln 56.3% in 1860. Lincoln added 24.29%
New States (did not vote in 1856, did vote in 1860):
- Oregon -- 3 votes, Lincoln 32.3%
- Minnesota -- 4 votes, Lincoln 63.4%
In 1856, Buchanan won with 174 Electoral votes, Freemont got 114, a total of 149 were needed to win.
Democrats lost
In 1860, Lincoln won with 180 Electoral votes, Douglas got 12, a total of 152 were needed to win.
In 1860, Lincoln got 66 more Electoral votes than Freemont in 1856. The Democrats (the rest) got 51 less than Buchanan got in 1856.
In order for a united Democratic Party to win in 1860
they need to take 29 Electoral votes away from Lincoln.
Lincoln would probably have won in Minnesota no matter what.
California and Oregon, all you have to do is unite the opposition instead of splitting it. If the Democratic Party stayed united, the Democrats probably would have won both those states. That is a swing of
7 votes.
That leaves the Democrats needing 22 Electoral votes.
They could do that by winning both
Illinois and
Indiana (
24 votes) or they could do that by winning Pennsylvania (
27 votes).
- Douglas/Breckinridge/Bell lost Illinois to Lincoln by 4,711 popular votes.
- Douglas/Breckinridge/Bell lost Indiana to Lincoln by 5,923 popular votes.
- Douglas/Breckinridge/Bell/Fusion won New Jersey to Lincoln by 4,523 popular votes (but lost the Electoral 4-3).
- Douglas/Breckinridge/Bell/Fusion lost Pennsylvania to Lincoln by 59,618 popular votes.
If they want to win in
Pennsylvania, they will need to address the protective tariff issue for iron and steel (which might also get them the votes to take Lincoln's
New Jersey split away (
4 votes). The adamant refusal to compromise on this issue probably cost the Democrats Pennsylvania and part of New Jersey whether they were united or not.
If they had remained united, they might have had an excellent chance to take
Indiana and
Illinois. That would have given them the Presidency.
At the end of the campaign Douglas -- believing he had already lost -- went South and tried to convince politicians there not to secede when Lincoln won. If he had been able to campaign with the assurance that a united South would back him, his chances of victory would have been much better. He would then have stayed in the North to campaign, increasing his chances in Illinois and Indiana