Not sure what the final impact will be but if the number of rifles, sack coats, trousers, leathers, blankets and caps are any indication, there has already been a flood of folks getting out of the hobby. I have been watching numerous venues where gear is sold and have seen the number of items sky rocket since Gettysburg. Each month there seems to be more and more gear up for sale. Unfortunately, it appears that the only fellas getting out of the hobby are the size 38-42 jacket sized guys. I picked up two rifles this past year, a 42 and a 55. Days after purchasing these rifles, for what had been a steal, 42's and 55's hit the various boards, in defarbed state, for $1-200 less than I paid. A great deal for the fellows who were able to add them to their collection.
I recently spent a weekend on the set of the upcoming mini series Point of Honor and used my acting salary to purchase a greatcoat, as a total of one 48 long had hit the sites in three years. The day after I returned home with my Sekela GC, three hit the boards. I am pleased with the quality and managed to catch it while on sale from Nick, but had they become available last year or the year before, I probably would have picked up another item of kit that I might use once or twice a year.
I have seen this trend in both Civil War reenacting as well as 1812 era reenacting. While the Napoleonic war era reenacting community is much smaller than the ACW community, the 200th anniversary seems to have had the same impact as the 150th is having on the Civil War community.
A number of my friends have moved on to either WWI or WWII, while popping back in for a big Civil War event every now and then. I can see the appeal, it is a lot more fun to burn through a few hundred rounds a day and be able to clean your weapon to factory finish in less than a half an hour.
At the 150th Cedar Creek, I was relegated to the sick call roster, having a level 3 calf muscle tear. Even though I could barely walk, I went and spent the day hanging out with my wife, another friend who was in a similar state of disrepair and generally enjoying the time spent in camp as an old fart. The weekend was just as enjoyable to me as if I had been on the field, with the bonus of having no weapons to clean. One of these days I am going to follow through on my threat to start a Veteran Corps unit. I know the 3rd USV as I have discussed the possibility with our Commander Col Dave Childs a number of times. Maybe when I get a few more grey hairs which cannot be eliminated by getting a short hair cut.