The Hard Cost of South Carolina's Secession

James Lutzweiler

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#21
There are many who like to compare the civil war to the American revolution. I don’t but for arguments sake let’s say they compare. How did the patriots expect to finance the war ? They had less ability to tax and regulate trade than the confederacy did. The British blockaded their ports and restricted exports. They printed money that caused inflation. There are many similarities. What did the Americans bank on , literally, to finance the revolution ? What was a major difference between the circumstances of the colonies and the old south ? Foreign recognition! I seem to remember the confederacy seeking foreign recognition at all costs. So much so that they starved themselves with an embargo to force recognition. The colonies got foreign loans and a treaty with France. The confederacy could not get what they needed even if they got clandestine support.
The point being, they didn’t think. They hoped. They had a history of shooting first and asking questions later.
Thank you.
 

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James Lutzweiler

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#23
Also the idea that anyone in SC was thinking rationally and properly calculating costs is dispelled by the firing on Sumter.
While I do believe the SCS were fools, I do not believe they were total Edited. fools. I believe if you could interview them and ask them how they planned to SUSTAIN the secession they were so easily accomplishing that they would have been able to provide you with an answer. I don't think it would be a well thought out and good answer, but it would have been some kind of an answer with an economic ingredient. You don't have to believe that. But I do. And the purpose of this thread is to elicit from those who have pondered this subject what answers might come to mind besides simply saying "cotton." Soft cotton has some real hard and clear numbers associated with it. The question is what were those numbers and how do they relate to the cost of what had to be a coming war.
 
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#24
it would have been some kind of an answer with an economic ingredient. You don't have to believe that. But I do. And the purpose of this thread is to elicit from those who have pondered this subject what answers might come to mind besides simply saying "cotton."
I gave an answer. Foreign recognition. I think they placed their hopes there. Credit for cotton and a treaty for intervention. That is “some kind of answer with an economic ingredient”. You can discount their belief in the power of cotton to accomplish this but it is well documented. The advocacy of this power by the very people who you claim advocated the primacy of the TRR, is documented. To omit these facts is equal to revision. [and misleading to be polite]
 
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James Lutzweiler

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#25
I gave an answer. Foreign recognition. I think they placed their hopes there. Credit for cotton and a treaty for intervention. That is “some kind of answer with an economic ingredient”. You can discount their belief in the power of cotton to accomplish this but it is well documented. The advocacy of this power by the very people who you claim advocated the primacy of the TRR, is documented. To omit these facts is equal to revision.
I nowhere discounted the SCS belief in the power of cotton. My interest is to discover if anyone contemplated the cost with real numbers. Edited.

Nor do I object to the answer of "foreign recognition." My pursuit is for just exactly how much foreign recognition SCS would need to accomplish its goal. Remember: My PRIMARY interest is in what South Carolina Seceshers were thinking. Right now I do not care about what the other ten states thought.
 
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#26
I nowhere discounted the SCS belief in the power of cotton. My interest is to discover if anyone contemplated the cost with real numbers. Military idiots do that today, all the time. Compare Mr. Cheney's estimates in re: Iraq with reality. I am wondering if there were some 1860s equivalent of this economic estimator.

Nor do I object to the answer of "foreign recognition." My pursuit is for just exactly how much foreign recognition SCS would need to accomplish its goal. Remember: My PRIMARY interest is in what South Carolina Seceshers were thinking. Right now I do not care about what the other ten states thought.
Maybe we can agree that just like the Colonial Rebels the Secessionists were gamblers. Nothing wrong with that when Lady Luck shows love but she don't always do so.
Leftyhunter
 
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#28
I like this very much and don't disagree at all. What I am trying to get a handle on is what were their 1860 equivalents of 7 and 11.
Pretty much. The Secessionists gambled that the Northeners were a bunch of Edited. One Johnny Reb can beat ten Billy Yanks and all that good stuff. The other gamble was that King Cotton was such a big deal the French and British would send their Army and Navy in to make sure that cotton would flow to their factories.
Unfortunately for the Confederacy the Secessionists were wrong.
Leftyhunter
 

WJC

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#29
***Posted as Moderator***
A reminder: this thread asks two questions: "How much money did South Carolina Seceshers expect to pay for their independence, and where was the money to come from?"
Please limit posts to addressing those two questions.

Off-topic posts will be edited or deleted.
 
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#31
How much money did South Carolina Seceshers expect to pay for their independence, and where was the money to come from?
I have been directing my answers at the second part of the question and did not properly address the first. I do not know of any documents estimating the cost of the war and do not believe anyone had any idea how much it would cost. Perhaps if they had given it some thought toward it’s true cost or had any idea how long it would last, the war would never have been fought. Their thoughts were not on the cost of the war but the cost of NOT fighting a war is what the stump speech speakers in SC were preaching.
 
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#32
I nowhere discounted the SCS belief in the power of cotton. My interest is to discover if anyone contemplated the cost with real numbers. Edited.

Nor do I object to the answer of "foreign recognition." My pursuit is for just exactly how much foreign recognition SCS would need to accomplish its goal. Remember: My PRIMARY interest is in what South Carolina Seceshers were thinking. Right now I do not care about what the other ten states thought.
Ideally the Confederacy would of had the same benefit of foreign recognition that the Colonial Rebels had I.e. troops from France plus the French and Spanish Naval support and loans from the Netherlands.

Failing that we get into the squishy are of diplomatic meditation.. In this scenario the British and French would negotiate an end to the hostilities and an independent Confederate nation would emerge.
The British Parliament did debate such an intervention but it never occurred.
Here's where it gets complicated; would the British and French be willing to use naval forces to break the blockade? Ultimately the answer was no.
Leftyhunter
 
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#33
I seek from posters answers to these two questions: How much money did South Carolina Seceshers expect to pay for their independence, and where was the money to come from?

Independence always costs money. The SC Seceshers (SCS) knew that. They knew that war would follow their action and that wars cost hard money. No one goes to war without counting the cost. Has anyone seen any estimates from the SCS concerning the cost of their action? Whether yes or no and the answer must remain a mystery, can anyone explain where the money would come from? I am not looking for a short answer like "cotton," as in "Cotton is King." I am looking for real numbers. E.g., we know from SCS's own declarations that their being shut out of the western territories was a factor in their decision. We know that the Gadsden Purchase alone cost $10 million. For the sake of argument, let us say that the rest of Arizona and New Mexico were worth another $10 million for a total of $20 million. Certainly the SCS had in mind to capture this property in some way shape or form. Questio: where did they expect to come up with this $20 million? Surely one answer to the question was from sister Southern states that would chip in --which means they had to expect Secession to spread to other states that also had to come up with the money. So, with these factors in mind, where was the money to come from? Who was going to pay and how much would have to be paid? And more particularly, how much would SC be able to pony up with planters leaving for more nutritious western soils that we call Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas, and with SC soils almost totally worn out? Again, let me repeat: How did SCS expect to pay? Please try to confine any posts exclusively to SCS, though I certainly welcome other answers. My primary concern is South Carolina.

James Lutzweiler
Here is the whole problem with "plan's". The great and esteemed American philosopher Mike Tyson said " everybody has a great plan until they get hit in the face". Actually Tyson basically paraphrased Prussian General Von Moltke who said depending on the translation " no plan survives contact with reality" or " no plan survives the first shot."
Another great man with words said of his boxing style " move like a butterfly and sting like a bee". Yes that worked great against Sonny Liston not so great when his jaw ran into George Foreman' s fist.
Point being all plans look great on paper. When said plans meet the cold hard fist of reality maybe they maybe not.
Leftyhunter
 

James Lutzweiler

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#34
Here is the whole problem with "plan's". The great and esteemed American philosopher Mike Tyson said " everybody has a great plan until they get hit in the face". Actually Tyson basically paraphrased Prussian General Von Moltke who said depending on the translation " no plan survives contact with reality" or " no plan survives the first shot."
Another great man with words said of his boxing style " move like a butterfly and sting like a bee". Yes that worked great against Sonny Liston not so great when his jaw ran into George Foreman' s fist.
Point being all plans look great on paper. When said plans meet the cold hard fist of reality maybe they maybe not.
Leftyhunter
Thank you for this contribution.

What I am looking for is something like what St. John prophesied about Jerusalem in the Apocalypse. Just as Americans, primarily the North but also the South, envisioned all of the real estate between the Mississippi and the Pacific as bound to fall into American hands by Manifest Destiny (their equivalent of St. John's manifesto re: Jerusalem), what were the Southern dreamers dreaming, especially South Carolina's dreamers? I could not agree more with what you say about plans until the first shot; but what were the plans and dreams and cost estimates prior to the first shot? Even Cassius Clay had an idea about the purse before taking on Liston or Foreman. If he had been told the reward for getting his face broken into was only going to be $5.00 and Parkinson's, I doubt he would have entered the ring. Dreams create action. What were the specific antebellum dreams of SC's Seceshers?
 
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#35
Thank you for this contribution.

What I am looking for is something like what St. John prophesied about Jerusalem in the Apocalypse. Just as Americans, primarily the North but also the South, envisioned all of the real estate between the Mississippi and the Pacific as bound to fall into American hands by Manifest Destiny (their equivalent of St. John's manifesto re: Jerusalem), what were the Southern dreamers dreaming, especially South Carolina's dreamers? I could not agree more with what you say about plans until the first shot; but what were the plans and dreams and cost estimates prior to the first shot? Even Cassius Clay had an idea about the purse before taking on Liston or Foreman. If he had been told the reward for getting his face broken into was only going to be $5.00 and Parkinson's, I doubt he would have entered the ring. Dreams create action. What were the specific antebellum dreams of SC's Seceshers?
As @jgoodguy showed in his post on Confederate diplomacy with Mexico the slave owners certainly desired more territory in Mexico. There was a society that many slave owners belonged to " the Circle of the Golden Crescent" which envisioned a slave r republic with its capital in Havana and the Southern US states plus parts of Mexico.
Slave owners did finance William Walker who attempted to take over Nicaragua.
As mentioned the Confederacy attempted to invade the New Mexico Territory.
So basically the ideal Confederate nation would include not only the eleven Southern states but also the border states of Missouri , Kentucky, Maryland and Delaware plus the New Mexico and Southern California, Cuba, Central America and Southern Mexico.
Leftyhunter
 

jgoodguy

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#36
As @jgoodguy showed in his post on Confederate diplomacy with Mexico the slave owners certainly desired more territory in Mexico. There was a society that many slave owners belonged to " the Circle of the Golden Crescent" which envisioned a slave r republic with its capital in Havana and the Southern US states plus parts of Mexico.
Slave owners did finance William Walker who attempted to take over Nicaragua.
As mentioned the Confederacy attempted to invade the New Mexico Territory.
So basically the ideal Confederate nation would include not only the eleven Southern states but also the border states of Missouri , Kentucky, Maryland and Delaware plus the New Mexico and Southern California, Cuba, Central America and Southern Mexico.
Leftyhunter
Don't forget Texas where slave owner moved into, rebelled, converting a free province of Mexico into a slave republic and then annexed it as a States.
 

WJC

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#37
What were the specific antebellum dreams of SC's Seceshers?
For clarification: Your original question concerned "the hard cost of South Carolina secession'. Now you are asking about South Carolina secessionists' "specific antebellum dreams". Most would not equate 'dreams" with "hard costs": are you changing the focus? Are we slipping into 'TRR Redux'?
 

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