Would European intervention have likely devolved into a seven years war style world war? Or were all of the major players pro Confederacy? I guess Russia is the one major pro Union country. But if England and France were on the same side here, would intervention have sparked a global fight?
There was no pro Confedrate or pro Union country. The Union and the Confedracy could buy all the weaponry they wanted on a cash and carry basis at least early I'm the war. Post Gettysburg it was more difficult for the Confedracy to obtain sophisticated war ships but they could still obtain them but to little to late such has the CSS Stonewall from France that ended up in Spanish Cuba at the end of the war.
Russia at the time was at best a second tier power. Yes Russian naval ships docked in San Francisco, Norfolk and NYC in 1863 but they were hiding from the British in case of a war they were not used to protect US ports or intercept Confedrate blockade runners.
Russia was not a major trade partner of the US at the time and well after.
There were pro Confedrate politicans in high places but at the end of the day they didn't help the Confedracy.
The winning side in a civil war gets lots of foreign help usually direct foreign military intervention but the Confedracy
If for whatever reason someone significant did decide to militarily ally w/ the Confederacy, was the BoP such that it would have ignited a powder keg? Like the Revolution or French and Indian War
There was no reason for any nation to get militarily involved in the ACW. Both Great Britain and France traded more with the Union especially in grain since there was a serious drought in the Ukraine. Cotton could and was being supplied from Egypt and British India. France was developing cotton fields in Senegal.
It is true the issue of diplomatic relations with the Confedracy was seriously discussed in the UK but it never happened and it wasn't widely supported by the British public. The British and French recently concluded the Crimean War which they won but it left a distaste for jumping into a new war.
Practically every major civil war has foreign involvement but nations don't militarily intervene unless there is a precieved value or interest in doing so. No such reason was
Technically speaking, that's incorrect. The tiny republic of San Marino was decidedly pro-Union and even granted citizenship to Lincoln.
The Russians probably preferred the Union--but never followed up on it. The Papal States seem to have preferred CSA but were put off when Davis refused to free the slaves (even gradually). I'm with
@jackt62 on this: it just doesn't look like Europe had any practical reason to become involved.
That's pretty much what I said on the beginning. There were only two nations that would be considered super powers in the Mid 19th Century and that was the UK and France neither of which were all that eager to get involved in a military conflict in North America although there was some tension after the Trent Affair. There were second tier powers such has Portugal,Spain, The Netherlands, Russia,the Austrian Empire and the Ottoman Empire but they weren't concerned all that affected by the ACW and we're not going to militarily intervene one way or the other.
The Confedracy couldn't be make a valid argument why any nation should risk war with the US a second rate power to assist the Confedracy.
Leftyhunter
Assuming that the Trent Affair, or some similar incident, leads to war between the United States and Britain, it's pretty obvious that Britain would recognize the Confederacy. Why would this, in turn, lead to war between Britain and France? Napoleon III was pretty well-disposed to the South and, given its efforts to gain de facto control of Mexico, it was actually in France's interest for the Union to be split apart.
Why would it lead to war between Britain and Russia? Russia was still licking its wounds from the Crimean War and had no particular geopolitical interest in what was going on in North America. Far too much is made of the goodwill visit to the United States by Russian warships. Russia cared a lot more about what was going on in China than what was going on in North America.
Spain? Prussia? Austria? What would be the point?
We have had prior threads on the long term visit of Russian ships to the US. It is far more likely that they were just seeking refuge in case of a war over the Polish question vs seeking good will from the US. The Russian ships stayed in the US for quite a while and yes the sailor and officers got treated to many parties and danced with lots of pretty girls. All well and good but the Russian Navy stayed clear of the conflict of the ACW. The Polish question came out in favor of Russia which rulled Poland until about 1918 then of course regained Poland for a while.
Leftyhunter