Future prospects for a disunited country.

wausaubob

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Denver, CO
In the "what if" world of possible Confederate independence, anything goes, so everyone can have at it.
First the parameters of the surviving Confederacy must be defined.
Then the actions of the US with respect to abolishing slavery within its borders must be dealt with.
I expect the US would have held MO, KS, NE, and CO. It would have abolished slavery within the US, despite some opposition. The US would never have evacuated the Virginia or North Carolina coast, so a full peace agreement was unlikely. Some type of armistice and prisoner exchange seems more likely.
The US would have restored New Orleans to the Confederacy based on the supposition that the railroad network could handle all the Midwest to NE traffic.
The British influence on US investment and policy would have been very strong. And as Germany unified, even more German dissenters would have fled the Prussian influence and taken their chances in the US.
A disunited country would not have been strong enough to expel France from Mexico, and the Confederates instead would have gradually become closely aligned with French, based on their need for French investment dollars.
The Confederacy had a big advantage over the rest of the world in growing, packing and shipping cotton. While that lasted, they would have a strong merchandise balance of payments, which would have helped them financially.
The Confederacy's other concern would have been that once it was independent, the US could tax Confederate cotton and cause a shift towards wool. Louisiana sugar would have to complete with Caribbean sugar without a tariff advantage. I think large parts of the southern tobacco region would have remained within the US, so that would not have been a problem.
If the US abolishes slavery, and the Confederacy continues it, the British have a chance to embargo investment to the Confederacy, without hurting the US. In 20-30 years that would have big impact on differential growth in the two countries.
I think the Confederates under estimated how difficult the first 33 years had been for the US, and how many close calls the Virginians made.
Sooner rather than later, the French were going to find themselves competing with a more unified Germany. And Britain was not likely to bail out a Catholic dominated government in France, when there were better places to invest in the US, Canada and India.
But others will certainly propound rosier scenarios.
 
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