I always find the tangle of history interesting how one event leads to another and another. Had only one link in the chain broken the difference it would make today.
One question I have for you is the section about Lee. This does not seem to coincide with the dates of events as I know them.
Colonel Ellsworth was killed on May 24th, 1861, the day after Virginia ratified the secession that had been approved on April 17th. Robert E. Lee resigned on April 20th, more than a month before Ellsworth death.
While Ellsworth death was prior to 1st Manassas by almost two months, it was well after Lee had resigned and Virginia had approved secession. It would seem that history had moved far enough prior to Ellsworth death that, while it inflamed Lincoln and became a rallying cry for the North (as did Marshall house proprietor James Jackson's death in the South), nothing would have changed (for Lee or Virginia) had the two survived and never met.
Not sure if I missed something...
No, you hadn't missed anything --I didn't put things in 'starch order,' but found history much like the old "Blacksmith's" poem -- for want of a horseshoe nail, the shoe was lost, for want of a shoe the horse was lost, for want of a horse a soldier lost, for want of a soldier/rider, etc. It is probably a thought and perhaps inspiration for "Its a Wonderful Life." Nobody really knows how important their life is involving others and how a person can change history being/not being involved in 'the moment' of historical crisis.
M. E. Wolf