Can a 2nd civil war happen

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Lets not turn it it a political debate...


can - sure.

likely - no
The civil war was generally fought by two organized armies and both sides was considered belligerent.
One reason this was possible was that the war was geographically divided and it was states against states.
(and the federal army was tiny)

For that to happen a sufficiently large number of states need to agree to fight the other part of the states. And the US military would need to split and join the faction they are geographically in. And I don't think that would happen.

The only scenario I can think of is two states ended up over time escalating a conflict, where Washington is so divided on the issue that the the federal government can't act and is forced to watch it... But then I think it is much more likely that things are done to end the conflict and it result in a constitutional crisis...

If, say the west coast decide they don't want to be part of the union any longer, I think the states today would be much more likely to do things diplomatically... and say to congress "we want to leave... with the approval of the other states" and some sort of deal would be made... after a few years of negotiation.


So I think any new "war", would be much more likely to be armed groups of people fighting a war against a state and/or the federal government. And more likely to be class based... and not based on geography.
 
I'm with Thomas. The conditions that allowed our civil war just don't exist now and there isn't really a central issue either; it's a collection of issues on which even states are internally divided. Oregon, for instance, is always shown as a "blue" state and collectively votes Democratic but, in fact, it's really only the populated northwest corner that is Democratic while most of the geographic state is Republican and conservative. I think there's other states like that also. So it's not a clean a break as it might seem.

I suppose I could imagine a scene where we finally get to a real police state or martial law is put in place (e.g. maybe after a terrorist attack for instance) and small groups decide to take up arms in resistance in scattered locations but not a general civil war.
 
I could maybe see some states or territories seceding semi-legally, like Alaska wanting to join Canada, Guam wanting to become part of some other nation, saying, Come on, guys, just let us do it, don't make a big stink about it.

As others have said, I don't see the country splitting in a war.
 
I can see some inner cities desolving into chaos. since this is inconjecture that could be a catalyst.

I'd agree that inner cities are ripe for chaos (at least sections of a few are close now) but I don't think they'd be a catalyst for larger rebellion. Cities are easily surrounded and locked down and if supplies don't get in it wouldn't take long to starve resistors out. The National Guard and large police agencies can get to, and into, cities quickly. If pockets of rebellion were to occur I think they'd be in places like the Ozarks or parts of the interior west.
 
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"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." It's too hard even to touch this issue without modern politics. I will say, however, that nobody in this century has yet been caned on the Senate floor, which allows for hope.
 
I'd agree that inner cities are ripe for chaos (at least sections of a few are close now) but I don't think they'd be a catalyst for larger rebellion. Cities are easily surrounded and locked down and if supplies don't get in it wouldn't take long to starve resistors out. The National Guard and large police agencies can get to, and into, cities quickly. If pockets of rebellion were to occur I think they'd be in places like the Ozarks or parts of the interior west.
I agree.
 
I can see a potential problem if there was an attempt to mess with the 2nd Amendment. Not sure who would do it or how it would be done, but I could see chaos erupting.

First thing I'd do is pack up and get the heck out of Cook County! :D
 
I can't see it happening, if for no other reason than, because the Federal government is very quick to address (and crush, if necessary) any suggestion at insurrection before it ever became a broad-scale conflict. In the mid-nineteenth century we lacked the technology and logistics to effectively eliminate such a threat before it had a chance gain a foothold. It took days or even longer to put soldiers in a position to stop an armed conflict before it became a territorial war. Now it can be done in hours.
 
What if a radical new religion appeared that was incompatible with our Abrahamic religions? A new religion that Christians, Jews, and Muslims simply could not accept and the members of the new religion totally rejected Abrahamic religions thought. Historically religions do come and go and religion is something that causes deep passions.
 
California is currently the focus of "screw you guys I'm going home" . a few years ago it was Texas. As I'm a firm believer in "He who governs least governs best" I'd support and encourage CA. to go it alone.
 
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