I looked at this source because I was concerned you were using a "strong" Little Dixie county to represent a "typical rural county' in Missouri. I see how you are getting your numbers but I can also see the errors in your calculation.
Your count for Federal troops comes from page 239
"Up to December 31, 1863, Monroe county had furnished 41 men for the regular United States service ; in the Missouri State Militia, 38.Under calls previous to December 19, 1864, Monroe county furnished 474, being 7 more than her quota. Under call of December 19,1864, the county furnished 134. There was no deficiency under the draft."
Then to get the count of Confederate troops, you count all the names listed on pages 237-239. There are two problems with the calculation. First, for those who have not studied the Holtzclaw family, more than two sons from this family served in the Confederate Army - one died in Corinth, 2 at Vicksburg, a 4th was seriously wounded at Vicksburg, and a 5th was wounded at Pea Ridge and then came home and started a guerilla outfit. But the list used to get this county count only shows two Holtzclaw's. This books lists 'some' Confederate veterans from the county - it is not meant to be an all inclusive list.
It would be better to use the information the same author concedes on page 227 when they say
" Indeed, were it even possible to present the facts as they occurred,we doubt the propriety of doing so, as we would thereby reopen the wounds which have partially been healed by the flight of time and the hope of the future. It were better, perhaps, to let the passions and the deep asperities which were then engendered, and all that serves to remind us of that unhappy period, be forgotten. We have tried in vain to obtain the number and names of the men who entered the Confederate, army from Monroe county. No record of them has ever been preserved", either by the officers who commanded the men or by the Confederate government. It is supposed about 600 men went into the Southern army."
This county was 'conditional Unionist" based on their representation to the Convention, as were most Little Dixie counties, and a strong slave holding county.
The evidence, for the
state, strongly supports the generally lead belief among historians that a large proportion of Missourians supported the Union. Anyone can cherry pick numbers to support "their side" all day long, whichever that may be, but in reality, one can read the plea and words from Sterling Price himself in December 1861 and see that neither he, nor Governor Jackson, were getting the response they thought they would.
(Read his deeply impassioned speech here) under 'General Sterling Price's Proclamation To The People of Central and Northern Missouri'. Sorry gang - yes Lyon's actions after camp Jackson pushed some 'conditional Unionists' to favor secession, maybe even a lot depending on what scale we are using. But many regretted their knee jerk reaction and went home afterwards, while a lot stayed loyal to Price and fought for the Confederacy. The same history that shows us that, also shows a lot more 'conditional Unionists' and 'unconditional Unionists' decided to stay loyal to the North.
Someone might want to consider the vote count in the 1860 election and the 1864 election and remember you could only vote if you took the oath of allegiance in 64. Now you have already heard the howls of how unfair the election was, but if all the people who did not vote in 64 that did in 60 were secesh
(obviously not) - you have a large majority that did take the oath.
But then again, there is that old saying "There are three kind of lies, lies, da--ed lies, and statistics."